Are you really ready for two years of this?

[Jingthing 71,188]

I know I'm not.

 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan

 

Quote

 

This is how life under coronavirus will play out over the next year

It's likely that coronavirus will loom over us until we have an effective vaccine. We need to prepare ourselves for life to be really strange for a long, long time

 

 

I think it's obvious by now that the hopes and promises of this virus situation ending in a month or two are extremely unlikely. Not only in Thailand, but globally.

 

Even in the few nations that have had good success in suppressing it before it got out of hand or are in a recovery phase from a severe impact are not anywhere near back to normal and are ready to revert to the previous restrictive measures very quickly. 

 

Why? 

This is very infectious.

Yes doing nothing and trying the herd immunity things was an option but for the most part countries don't want to accept that level of mass death.

 

So instead these lockdowns and such simply SLOW things down as we wait for a vaccine. Likely at least 18 months away.

 

So the lockdowns and such are pretty likely to be OFF and ON for maybe two years.

 

Yes there is a good chance that with antibody tests there will be a new class of people with immunity certificates that will be able to avoid all the restrictions, assuming they will actually be immune, which we really don't know yet.

 

Expecting a miracle treatment is not realistic. Remember how long that took with HIV?

 

Expecting a vaccine any quicker than 18 months is not realistic either. Two years is more likely than earlier for it to actually be in mass usage.

 

However this turns out for the survivors the world at the end of this is not going to be the same as the world before it. 

 

Is Thailand really the best place to try to get through this for possibly as long as two years?

 

Those of us still here not seeking a repatriating flight have made that choice regardless.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Jingthing

[mstevens 2,424]

Yep, there is going to be a very long timeframe on this and when we do come out of it in 18 - 24 months from now, the world will be a very different place. Asset prices will have been hammered, unemployment high and probably a much smaller number of businesses operating than today.

 

Personally, I am happy I am not in Thailand at this time. If things get really bad there, I wouldn't want to be a foreigner there. But that's me, and I understand the arguments that some might prefer it there, especially if upcountry with Thai Mrs and family. But in a big city like Bangkok that is in lock down for 1 - 2 years? No, thanks!

[RichardColeman 28,215]

Personally - and yes we all know Chinese data is rubbish - until they have a vaccine, I think any predictions on timescale cant really be estimated until they see what a potential 2nd and 3rd wave is like

[Jingthing 71,188]

29 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Personally - and yes we all know Chinese data is rubbish - until they have a vaccine, I think any predictions on timescale cant really be estimated until they see what a potential 2nd and 3rd wave is like

Yes there are so many variables that are impossible to predict and of course multiple waves are not only possible but probably likely, as different parts of the world are on different timetables and it may turn out there is a seasonal factor as well. Plus … it could mutate in either a good or a bad way. The info I currently have is that what mutations that have occurred so far have not resulted in different levels of virulence.

[Dexlowe 4,468]

I'm in NZ right now - perhaps a good place to be to wait out this plague. But I'm separated from my daughter, and I miss her badly. Not being able to jump on a plane at any time and go up there is taking time to sink in. I miss my little home up there, and I miss my relaxed lifestyle and all the things I have become used to over the decades. For all its faults, Thailand was home for 30 years, and it's not easy to just suddenly push that aside. If this goes on for another couple of years, I might be a raving lunatic by the time I can go back.

[stravers 167]

I second too that I'm not in Asia now. When the hospitals inevitably crash, they will save their own except those that can pay private. Mama Noodles is already currency to Thais who didn't have a pot to <deleted> in to begin with. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by stravers

[gunderhill 6,439]

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

[Jingthing 71,188]

21 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

Well that is not the choice that countries are making for the most part so maybe you want to move to Turkmenistan. 

[gunderhill 6,439]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Well that is not the choice that countries are making for the most part so maybe you want to move to Turkmenistan. 

Maybe  they need  to accept  the  inevitable.

[Jingthing 71,188]

Just now, gunderhill said:

Maybe  they need  to accept  the  inevitable.

I think the world I'm looking for is civilization. 

[gunderhill 6,439]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

I think the world I'm looking for is civilization. 

The  very civilisation that could easily end if they don't due to economic meltdown.

[ezzra 44,178]

The key for beating this serious threat to humanity is for everyone

to take this bad situation very seriously something that many of us don't by deluding themselves that the number of dead and infected are insignificant to the number of people in this world and that to them it will not happen, and until such time the penny will finally drop, that will be the day we will beat this virus...

[nausea 4,771]

Luckily, my own personal set up means I can ride it out pretty comfortably, the changes to my lifestyle have been fairly minimal so far (touch wood), like I can't go for my weekly swim, boo-hoo; the ban on international travel is a bitch though, I sincerely hope that isn't gonna be a long term thing. Must say, being stuck isolated in a bedsit somewhere must be pretty miserable. Yeah, I've made the decision to ride this out in Thailand, can't see much advantage in returning to the UK - see my previous sentence.

[cmarshall 3,177]

I think by the end of the year people are going to go back to work even if the pandemic is not over out of economic necessity.  The govt is not going to make everyone whole.

[Sambotte 789]

I am not. I wonder if people are so sheep they would accept this for... ever. 

 

To bet on a vaccine sound crazy to me. Not sure one will be ok, not sure it will work enough, and pretty sure like for Flu it will not work long term.

Treatment look as much uncertain.

 

Gouvernements, if i get it correctly, with medical experts, want to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. Would be ugly.

But economics sick is not exactly a long term solution either.

And well i hope people are still majoritarely alive, and would not accept such a lockdown for ever.

 

So i would say 2 options :

- Let nature process. Ugly but relatively short, and we can live again.

- Fear-lockdown : what the point to "survive" like that ?... Not to mention it's not THE plague, but ONE pandemy like we know there will be. Not to mention all the others causes of deaths / sickness, but accepted "in hospitals only".

- A mix, most probable, to slow down, but again for years and repeat ? 

 

What really scares me with this virus thing, is not the virus.