Are you really ready for two years of this?

[Assurancetourix]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Yes doing nothing and trying the herd immunity things was an option but for the most part countries don't want to accept that level of mass death.

It is however the only real solution;
let nature take its course even if tens of millions of people will die faster than expected.
There are too many people on this earth who can no longer bear it;
would you prefer a big meteorite to crash and kill 1 billion?

What is 10 or 20 million compared to 7 billion?
It's peanuts
and at least the world economies would continue to function normally because the vast majority of those who must die are retired (I am one of them)

[tonray]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Is Thailand really the best place to try to get through this for possibly as long as two years?

I see it as a better choice than America right now. I live in a nice house, GF manages a supermarket so she's rarely home to get on my nerves these days, I've got gardening to do, a few mates in the MooBaan, my neighbors are decent and local markets are still open for business. The only big thing missing for me is the ability to travel which is what it is. 

[donnacha]

17 minutes ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

I plan to infect myself, become immune, and travel the world like some kinda SuperHero.  Corona-Man.  Booyah

Reduced-Lung-Capacity-Man.  Booyeah.

 

 

[Mattd]

3 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

This is the crux of the issue, it is nothing to do with whether you, me and Joe Bloggs are ready for this long term, it is everything to do with whether the world as a whole can sustain it.

Long term isolation, be it ordinary folks staying at home, no flights etc. is just not sustainable, the economies of the world would collapse and with it would come massive unemployment and social collapse, the devastation would be enormous, far far greater that CV itself.

Imagine trying to sustain what we are seeing for a long period of say two years, or worst still forever, the only shops allowed to open being food and pharmacies, so no clothing stores etc. therefore factories producing goods have to either slow production and layoff staff, commodities would become scarce, so therefore more expensive, meanwhile the populous would have a lot less money and what they do have has to be spent on food.

Governments would lose massive amounts of revenue on income and corporation taxes, VAT revenues, social security payments, import duties, airport taxes etc. whilst dishing out more and more on social related payments and trying to stabilize things, healthcare services would drop, education would become a thing of the past.

Meanwhile the people isolated in their homes cannot afford to repay their mortgages, pay their bills such as electricity, water, council taxes etc. so these get either cut off or severely reduced, the local authorities can no longer afford to collect any rubbish, the list goes on.

The emergency services would have to be reduced due to the lack of public funds.

Anarchy would inevitably take over, suicides rates would rocket way above the deaths caused by the virus.

 

There will become a point where governments will have to decide between this or an acceptable attrition rate caused by the virus.

 

[donnacha]

15 minutes ago, tonray said:

I see it as a better choice than America right now. I live in a nice house, GF manages a supermarket so she's rarely home to get on my nerves these days, I've got gardening to do, a few mates in the MooBaan, my neighbors are decent and local markets are still open for business.

Sounds ideal, as long as everything remains exactly the same over the next two years as the Thai economy collapses, families start losing grandparents, relationships fracture due to being forced into lockdown together, everyone's career or education remains in limbo, debts spiral out of control, and terrible rumors start to hurtle though Thai social media, announcing that it is all the fault of the dirty farangs.

 

[henry2109]

5 minutes ago, Mattd said:

This is the crux of the issue, it is nothing to do with whether you, me and Joe Bloggs are ready for this long term, it is everything to do with whether the world as a whole can sustain it.

Long term isolation, be it ordinary folks staying at home, no flights etc. is just not sustainable, the economies of the world would collapse and with it would come massive unemployment and social collapse, the devastation would be enormous, far far greater that CV itself.

Imagine trying to sustain what we are seeing for a long period of say two years, or worst still forever, the only shops allowed to open being food and pharmacies, so no clothing stores etc. therefore factories producing goods have to either slow production and layoff staff, commodities would become scarce, so therefore more expensive, meanwhile the populous would have a lot less money and what they do have has to be spent on food.

Governments would lose massive amounts of revenue on income and corporation taxes, VAT revenues, social security payments, import duties, airport taxes etc. whilst dishing out more and more on social related payments and trying to stabilize things, healthcare services would drop, education would become a thing of the past.

Meanwhile the people isolated in their homes cannot afford to repay their mortgages, pay their bills such as electricity, water, council taxes etc. so these get either cut off or severely reduced, the local authorities can no longer afford to collect any rubbish, the list goes on.

The emergency services would have to be reduced due to the lack of public funds.

Anarchy would inevitably take over, suicides rates would rocket way above the deaths caused by the virus.

 

There will become a point where governments will have to decide between this or an acceptable attrition rate caused by the virus.

 

This point will come gradually, but will already start by the Ende of April, for all the reasons you gave.

[Henryford]

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Henryford

[chessman]

29 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

It is however the only real solution;
let nature take its course even if tens of millions of people will die faster than expected.
There are too many people on this earth who can no longer bear it;
would you prefer a big meteorite to crash and kill 1 billion?

What is 10 or 20 million compared to 7 billion?
It's peanuts
and at least the world economies would continue to function normally because the vast majority of those who must die are retired (I am one of them)

This is a false choice. People talk as if the economy would go on as normal if the government didn’t take steps to encourage social distancing. It wouldn’t. It’s likely that the economy would collapse even worse. 
if the models are correct then this will be the worst month. Scientists will also know a lot more about how the virus spreads in a month/6 weeks

[Assurancetourix]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

if the models are correct then this will be the worst month. Scientists will also know a lot more about how the virus spreads in a month/6 weeks

In your dreams ..
This kind of response comes from those who are afraid;
in this case pray if you are a believer ...
to be afraid of a tiger in freedom, it is normal but of a virus?
Any virus is effectively fought inside the human body without any medication being useful.
If the body cannot defend itself, so much the worse .. it dies ...
Where is the problem ?

[cyril sneer]

It’s possible, especially in European countries that everyone got it at some point and either showed no symptoms or thought they had a mild cough. 
 

So the death rates will peak now and never rise to such a rate again.

 

I wonder how many of the victims had only a few days/months to live anyway, regardless of the virus.

[Nyezhov]

Two years of 3 hours afternoon pool party sessions. Two years of Landrace weed and no steak. My playlist balooning to 3000 songs and my hair in a ponytail. Finally caught upon my photo edits and reading list. Got it. Guess It is what it is.

[Skallywag]

[chessman]

7 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

In your dreams ..
This kind of response comes from those who are afraid;
in this case pray if you are a believer ...
to be afraid of a tiger in freedom, it is normal but of a virus?
Any virus is effectively fought inside the human body without any medication being useful.
If the body cannot defend itself, so much the worse .. it dies ...
Where is the problem ?

This kind of response comes from epidemiologists who have spent years studying this kind of thing. They may be wrong, this is a very difficult one to model, but their predictions will have a lot more worth than yours or mine.

[actonion]

Thanks for the added doom  & gloom,   people can do without this right now

[david555]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Yes there are so many variables that are impossible to predict and of course multiple waves are not only possible but probably likely, as different parts of the world are on different timetables and it may turn out there is a seasonal factor as well. Plus … it could mutate in either a good or a bad way. The info I currently have is that what mutations that have occurred so far have not resulted in different levels of virulence.

Do you really think Thailand ...and more this Thai Gov. Can afford this for themselves for 2 years ...

 

I am sure not as they even could not enforce a big group returning Thailand to go in organised 14 day quarantine just now posted on TV.....under the naming rebellion at Suvharnaboumi

 

 

[justaphase]

All very Orwell isn't it?

It's all worked out nicely for the 1%

Destroy the common peoples lives and keep them inside.

Agenda 21 is here

[simple1]

40 minutes ago, Henryford said:

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

There are vaccines available for the flu, but requires a new shot once a year to keep up with mutations. During a recent visit to my GP she mentioned prior to flu vaccine millions were dying every year worldwide, now averaging 500k p.a. I assume would be less flu deaths if provided en mass in less developed countries.

 

it's currently estimated a vaccine will be available for Covid-19 in approx 6 - 12 months. it would seem the likes of G20 countries can afford to borrow funds to provide income support for the less well off and businesses for a year or so. After a year who knows that the outcome will be if Covid is not got under control. However, it appears most Western government are forecasting not longer than 6 months or so to to get matters under control. I would guess the huge national debts increases will have a long lasting effect on government spending to support the economy and welfare.

Edited April 4, 2020 by simple1

[Enzian]

I can't go back to northern CA because it is much worse there and will be for a while, and at the moment my son there, who has not been tested but who has a degree in Public Health, is pretty sure he has it. I don't want two years of this but then I think of John McCain who spent 6 1/2 years in the Hanoi Hilton and other prisons and think what a wimp I am. I have a friend who did 8 years in San Quentin and is a good member of the community now. I think with occasional female contact, which might not be impossible to arrange and still be safe, I'd be reasonably comfortable. I worry more about the poor of Thailand and what they may be facing, and what they may be forced into. One more thing: there are things in my life I didn't like and was putting up with out of inertia; those will change.

[GeorgeCross]

36 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

but eventually it will come to that, the global economies won't accept collapse which in the end will cause more fatalities than corona and worse still, political devastation, looking at the likes of Trump and his supporters it wouldn't take much for Fascist regimes to start up again, WW2 caused 75 million fatalities, only 20 million of these were military personnel.

 

assuming of course enough workers actually want to go back to work OR more importantly enough people will be out creating demand for companies to deem reopening profitable.

 

i know i won't be going to the cinema or a restaurant if the virus response was "eff it we need to reopen" and there are still infected people walking around everywhere.

 

in other words IMO we are facing a depression whether we lockdown or not (so might as well save lives if the economy will be effed anyway but thats just me)

 

its a big assumption that the economy will just reboot to the levels it was at before, sure it will be higher than full lockdown but will it remain that way when the infections move into the millions? or will people instinctively start hunkering down anyway?

 

my solution: a brutal lockdown until new infections are at a traceable level then leave the borders closed or with mandatory state quarantine, only opening to countries in similar situations OR a vaccine/treatment is rolled out.

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by GeorgeCross

[cyril sneer]

another theory of mine, which is kind of opposite, is that people will just keep getting re-infected until the body cannot take it anymore, so eventually the population is just wiped out

 

we are starting to see this with young doctors and nurses

[AussieBob18]

I dont often agree with Jingthing, but if things dont slow in the next month or two, he is very likely to be correct.

 

Personally, as many of you know, I am of the view that this is a very bad flu and shutting down the world is the wrong idea (throwing baby out with bath water), but that is not the issue Jingthing is raising here. The issue is how long will this clampdown and restrictions continue and stay in place.

 

The PM in Aust has stated that it is likely to continue to at least October.  We have had 28 deaths and a few thousand sick, and they will keep this clampdown in place for another 6-7 months unless the numbers slow/decline worldwide. 

 

What Jingthing has claimed is that this clampdown could go for up to 2 years - that is not absolute rubbish. The reasons for doing that might be rubbish - but they are doing it and it is in place worldwide. Unless you have your own Army/Country, then it will stay in place until they are forced to release them, or until the numbvers of infections and deaths slow down a lot. 

 

The Govts are all acting as if this pandemic will kill 10-20+ million people unless they put in place these controls, and they will not release them until the numbers justify it. They are in place - right or wrong - and they aint going away for a while.

 

1.  The numbers slow and infections decline.  Restrictions will be eased slowly, but any sharp sudden increase in infections and deaths will result in them being put back in place - stronger harder and longer.

2.  The numbers do not slow down enough, and they keep at a similar leve as they are now.  Restrictions will stay in place period.  Only after some period of time, will these numbers of deaths be accepted, and the 'herd immunity' reality be allowed to deal with the matter.  1.25 million people die every year on the roads - it is accepted. 

 

2 years?  Could be.   Unlikely - but it could be that long until all restrictions are removed (and some probably never will be).

 

If you can - get out of Thailand guys.

 

If you cannot - get a plan and be ready to dig in. 

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, simple1 said:

There are vaccines available for the flu, but requires a new shot once a year to keep up with mutations. During a recent visit to my GP she mentioned prior to flu vaccine millions were dying every year worldwide, now averaging 500k p.a. I assume would be less flu deaths if provided en mass in less developed countries.

 

it's currently estimated a vaccine will be available for Covid-19 in approx 6 - 12 months. it would seem the likes of G20 countries can afford to borrow funds to provide income support for the less well off and businesses for a year or so. After a year who knows that the outcome will be if Covid is not got under control. However, it appears most Western government are forecasting not longer than 6 months or so to to get matters under control. I would guess the huge national debts increases will have a long lasting effect on government spending to support the economy and welfare.

500,000 flu deaths a year, doesn't sound like much of a vaccine to me. More fatal that Coroana.

[scorecard]

6 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Yes there are so many variables that are impossible to predict and of course multiple waves are not only possible but probably likely, as different parts of the world are on different timetables and it may turn out there is a seasonal factor as well. Plus … it could mutate in either a good or a bad way. The info I currently have is that what mutations that have occurred so far have not resulted in different levels of virulence.

Yes there are many variables and yes a good vaccine is sorely needed.

 

Many countries are making good progress with achieving social distancing and it's clear (by earlier examples) that this does work to strongly reduce the rate of infections, and 99% of the community (at least here in New South Wales) have strongly embraced social distancing and support it for as long as is needed.

 

Further, here in Australia (and I hope in many other countries) the government hase quickly set up many support mechanisms.

 

Back to social distancing, I suspect there's more 'methodologies' needed to go even further with limiting the spread.

 

In many/ most counties many doctors and nurses etc., are still being infected and many deaths, this seems to suggest there's still much more to learn / and we must quickly learn, how to reduce these infections, and out of that new learning it should of course be applied globally.

 

The longer-term future; until there is a successful vaccine*, and time to get overall strong results from the vaccine:

 

- How does the world proceed?

 

In the last 50 years of last century (50 is just a wild guess) the world has moved to an integrated world community with massive quantities of trade across the world and much ease of fast travel across the world. And my guess is that the world community would not want the world to fall back to very low levels of contact across borders (as was true before such ease of international travel), and wouldn't want to limit global trade opportunities etc. In fact I'm guessing the rich and powerful oligarchs of the world will, not too far into the future put massive pressure onto governments to get back to high revenues and margins quickly. and won't hesitate to use whatever mechanisms are needed to achieve their capitalist goals.

 

So will the next focus be on how to successfully safely rebuild travel and trade?

 

*Lots of research and some hope regularly in the world news and perhaps a vaccine will come even earlier, I hope so.

Edited April 4, 2020 by scorecard

[simple1]

41 minutes ago, Henryford said:

500,000 flu deaths a year, doesn't sound like much of a vaccine to me. More fatal that Coroana.

Guess you missed the point not everyone has access for flu vaccines, from memory approx 50% of world population. Flu has been around for hundreds of years, thoroughly embedded in society worldwide. Covid-19 is recent, already around 60k reported deaths w/w, probably a lot more. Let's see what the figures looks like when it spreads throughout poor countries e.g. Africa / Latin America.

Edited April 4, 2020 by simple1

[ExpatOilWorker]

Smaller countries are starting to have it under control. 

Denmark is talking about opening high school and senior years so students can still take the final summer exam.

 

[bkk6060]

2 years?

That would be close to 15% of my life expectancy.

No, I could not continue like this.  I would hope at some point there would be a few places in the world safe to go.  And, that's what I would do sooner then later.

Edited April 4, 2020 by bkk6060

[meechai]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Is Thailand really the best place to try to get through this for possibly as long as two years?

Let me put it to you this way.....

 

If this were Stephen King's "The Stand" Thailand would be Vegas not Colorado ????

[Guderian]

Read the leader in today's Economist magazine. Sooner or later the economic damage and financial cost will outweigh the value of trying to save all those lives (estimated at $60K per person in the US). That's assuming the young, who are less susceptible (though not immune) to Covid-19, would be willing to go on like this for more than a few months. If serious social unrest starts to bite then governments will be forced to change their tactics and go the herd immunity route. There is indeed a very dark time ahead of us, but it's not because the whole world's going to be put on hold for a few years. Believe me, that will not happen.

[baansgr]

3 hours ago, Henryford said:

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

Isnt there flu jabs every year, a vaccine may just be round the corner but yes will take years to recover

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, Henryford said:

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

You seriously trying to compare this with HIV ? I suggest you educate yourself more. Yes, there is no vaccine for HIV - BUT, unlike this virus, you can't simply get over it 99% of the time !