Jump to content

Are you really ready for two years of this?


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 513
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

I know I'm not.   https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan     I think it's obvious by now that the hopes and promises of this virus situati

Well I'm with Jingthing on this. It's likely going to be 2 years just to get the first wave of infections worked through globally and that's assuming that places like Russia and N Korea divulge what's

Posted Images

40 minutes ago, Henryford said:

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

There are vaccines available for the flu, but requires a new shot once a year to keep up with mutations. During a recent visit to my GP she mentioned prior to flu vaccine millions were dying every year worldwide, now averaging 500k p.a. I assume would be less flu deaths if provided en mass in less developed countries.

 

it's currently estimated a vaccine will be available for Covid-19 in approx 6 - 12 months. it would seem the likes of G20 countries can afford to borrow funds to provide income support for the less well off and businesses for a year or so. After a year who knows that the outcome will be if Covid is not got under control. However, it appears most Western government are forecasting not longer than 6 months or so to to get matters under control. I would guess the huge national debts increases will have a long lasting effect on government spending to support the economy and welfare.

Edited by simple1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't go back to northern CA because it is much worse there and will be for a while, and at the moment my son there, who has not been tested but who has a degree in Public Health, is pretty sure he has it. I don't want two years of this but then I think of John McCain who spent 6 1/2 years in the Hanoi Hilton and other prisons and think what a wimp I am. I have a friend who did 8 years in San Quentin and is a good member of the community now. I think with occasional female contact, which might not be impossible to arrange and still be safe, I'd be reasonably comfortable. I worry more about the poor of Thailand and what they may be facing, and what they may be forced into. One more thing: there are things in my life I didn't like and was putting up with out of inertia; those will change.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

but eventually it will come to that, the global economies won't accept collapse which in the end will cause more fatalities than corona and worse still, political devastation, looking at the likes of Trump and his supporters it wouldn't take much for Fascist regimes to start up again, WW2 caused 75 million fatalities, only 20 million of these were military personnel.

 

assuming of course enough workers actually want to go back to work OR more importantly enough people will be out creating demand for companies to deem reopening profitable.

 

i know i won't be going to the cinema or a restaurant if the virus response was "eff it we need to reopen" and there are still infected people walking around everywhere.

 

in other words IMO we are facing a depression whether we lockdown or not (so might as well save lives if the economy will be effed anyway but thats just me)

 

its a big assumption that the economy will just reboot to the levels it was at before, sure it will be higher than full lockdown but will it remain that way when the infections move into the millions? or will people instinctively start hunkering down anyway?

 

my solution: a brutal lockdown until new infections are at a traceable level then leave the borders closed or with mandatory state quarantine, only opening to countries in similar situations OR a vaccine/treatment is rolled out.

 

Edited by GeorgeCross
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

another theory of mine, which is kind of opposite, is that people will just keep getting re-infected until the body cannot take it anymore, so eventually the population is just wiped out

 

we are starting to see this with young doctors and nurses

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont often agree with Jingthing, but if things dont slow in the next month or two, he is very likely to be correct.

 

Personally, as many of you know, I am of the view that this is a very bad flu and shutting down the world is the wrong idea (throwing baby out with bath water), but that is not the issue Jingthing is raising here. The issue is how long will this clampdown and restrictions continue and stay in place.

 

The PM in Aust has stated that it is likely to continue to at least October.  We have had 28 deaths and a few thousand sick, and they will keep this clampdown in place for another 6-7 months unless the numbers slow/decline worldwide. 

 

What Jingthing has claimed is that this clampdown could go for up to 2 years - that is not absolute rubbish. The reasons for doing that might be rubbish - but they are doing it and it is in place worldwide. Unless you have your own Army/Country, then it will stay in place until they are forced to release them, or until the numbvers of infections and deaths slow down a lot. 

 

The Govts are all acting as if this pandemic will kill 10-20+ million people unless they put in place these controls, and they will not release them until the numbers justify it. They are in place - right or wrong - and they aint going away for a while.

 

1.  The numbers slow and infections decline.  Restrictions will be eased slowly, but any sharp sudden increase in infections and deaths will result in them being put back in place - stronger harder and longer.

2.  The numbers do not slow down enough, and they keep at a similar leve as they are now.  Restrictions will stay in place period.  Only after some period of time, will these numbers of deaths be accepted, and the 'herd immunity' reality be allowed to deal with the matter.  1.25 million people die every year on the roads - it is accepted. 

 

2 years?  Could be.   Unlikely - but it could be that long until all restrictions are removed (and some probably never will be).

 

If you can - get out of Thailand guys.

 

If you cannot - get a plan and be ready to dig in. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, simple1 said:

There are vaccines available for the flu, but requires a new shot once a year to keep up with mutations. During a recent visit to my GP she mentioned prior to flu vaccine millions were dying every year worldwide, now averaging 500k p.a. I assume would be less flu deaths if provided en mass in less developed countries.

 

it's currently estimated a vaccine will be available for Covid-19 in approx 6 - 12 months. it would seem the likes of G20 countries can afford to borrow funds to provide income support for the less well off and businesses for a year or so. After a year who knows that the outcome will be if Covid is not got under control. However, it appears most Western government are forecasting not longer than 6 months or so to to get matters under control. I would guess the huge national debts increases will have a long lasting effect on government spending to support the economy and welfare.

500,000 flu deaths a year, doesn't sound like much of a vaccine to me. More fatal that Coroana.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Yes there are so many variables that are impossible to predict and of course multiple waves are not only possible but probably likely, as different parts of the world are on different timetables and it may turn out there is a seasonal factor as well. Plus … it could mutate in either a good or a bad way. The info I currently have is that what mutations that have occurred so far have not resulted in different levels of virulence.

Yes there are many variables and yes a good vaccine is sorely needed.

 

Many countries are making good progress with achieving social distancing and it's clear (by earlier examples) that this does work to strongly reduce the rate of infections, and 99% of the community (at least here in New South Wales) have strongly embraced social distancing and support it for as long as is needed.

 

Further, here in Australia (and I hope in many other countries) the government hase quickly set up many support mechanisms.

 

Back to social distancing, I suspect there's more 'methodologies' needed to go even further with limiting the spread.

 

In many/ most counties many doctors and nurses etc., are still being infected and many deaths, this seems to suggest there's still much more to learn / and we must quickly learn, how to reduce these infections, and out of that new learning it should of course be applied globally.

 

The longer-term future; until there is a successful vaccine*, and time to get overall strong results from the vaccine:

 

- How does the world proceed?

 

In the last 50 years of last century (50 is just a wild guess) the world has moved to an integrated world community with massive quantities of trade across the world and much ease of fast travel across the world. And my guess is that the world community would not want the world to fall back to very low levels of contact across borders (as was true before such ease of international travel), and wouldn't want to limit global trade opportunities etc. In fact I'm guessing the rich and powerful oligarchs of the world will, not too far into the future put massive pressure onto governments to get back to high revenues and margins quickly. and won't hesitate to use whatever mechanisms are needed to achieve their capitalist goals.

 

So will the next focus be on how to successfully safely rebuild travel and trade?

 

*Lots of research and some hope regularly in the world news and perhaps a vaccine will come even earlier, I hope so.

Edited by scorecard
Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Henryford said:

500,000 flu deaths a year, doesn't sound like much of a vaccine to me. More fatal that Coroana.

Guess you missed the point not everyone has access for flu vaccines, from memory approx 50% of world population. Flu has been around for hundreds of years, thoroughly embedded in society worldwide. Covid-19 is recent, already around 60k reported deaths w/w, probably a lot more. Let's see what the figures looks like when it spreads throughout poor countries e.g. Africa / Latin America.

Edited by simple1
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

2 years?

That would be close to 15% of my life expectancy.

No, I could not continue like this.  I would hope at some point there would be a few places in the world safe to go.  And, that's what I would do sooner then later.

Edited by bkk6060
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Is Thailand really the best place to try to get through this for possibly as long as two years?

Let me put it to you this way.....

 

If this were Stephen King's "The Stand" Thailand would be Vegas not Colorado 🙃

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Henryford said:

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

Isnt there flu jabs every year, a vaccine may just be round the corner but yes will take years to recover

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Henryford said:

I am assuming that Pattaya/Thailand will be pretty much wiped out for 2020. I doubt they will get a vaccine any time soon either. They haven't for the cold/flu/HIV virus in 100 years. Eventually they will have to raise the lockdown and accept the impact of further infections. The longer they leave it the more people will suffer.

You seriously trying to compare this with HIV ? I suggest you educate yourself more. Yes, there is no vaccine for HIV - BUT, unlike this virus, you can't simply get over it 99% of the time ! 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...