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Are you really ready for two years of this?


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11 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

Unless of course it was you dying.

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They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

I know I'm not.   https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan     I think it's obvious by now that the hopes and promises of this virus situati

Well I'm with Jingthing on this. It's likely going to be 2 years just to get the first wave of infections worked through globally and that's assuming that places like Russia and N Korea divulge what's

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8 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Current estimates for a vaccine are about 18 months from general availability

My guess is that they will find an efficacious treatment regime long before. Right now they are throwing everything at this to see what sticks and there are a few drug combinations already showing promise. If I am not mistaken the validation trials for a drug are much shorter than for a vaccine, especially if they are derivatives of known ones.

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Maybe governments will have to accept a threshold number of new daily cases (which are within the capacity of the country's medical system to effectively treat and minimise deaths).

 

Hospitals will obviously properly gear up to routinely treat cases within the next month or two (provided there is not a sudden spike in numbers).

 

Treatments will get more effective over time with experience. If hospitals are working within capacity, tr and there is no need to make life or death choices.  

 

So what is a sustainable threshold of new daily cases? I'm sure the calculations have been done. For countries like Thailand and Australia it might be 100 a day (and assuming a fatality rate <1%). If these thresholds (whatever they are) are met than governments can progressively ease restrictions with a view to getting the domestic economy back on track.

 

But full freedom of international travel will not resume until there is an effective vaccine.

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12 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

To a degree

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57 minutes ago, john69 said:

Are you volunteering if the respirators run out?

volunteering shall have its limits too at one moment anyway 

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13 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I think it's obvious by now that the hopes and promises of this virus situation ending in a month or two are extremely unlikely. Not only in Thailand, but globally.

 

it took 3 months to China and you think that it will take a year here ? ridiculous.

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Just now, Brunolem said:

You are already accepting the possibility of death by a multitude of more likely illnesses, starting with cancer.

 

Why would you want to make a special case for the coronavirus?

 

Totally agree ! locking the world for 1 millions death maybe maximum is so idiot.

 

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Here's my take:

 

Vaccine might not end up being the way out. Think of flu shots; you need them every year and even then it's not a 100% fail safe like some vaccines. 

 

I think mass testing will ultimately be the way out of this. The world needs to develop billions of tests that can be administered quickly and reliably, and then each country needs to go around to every home and test EVERYONE. Then all who tests positive are placed in actual quarantine facilities (not at home) for a month. Six months of this and the virus would be so suppressed that it will pretty much disappear on its own. 

 

I think Thailand will expand testing to South Korea levels within the next 3 months. So here's a timeline:

 

3-6 months: Thailand and some other countries can return to some type of normalcy. People will still wear masks and there will still be travel restrictions from countries that don't have it under control. But state of emergency will be lifted and at least things will start to feel somewhat normal again. 

 

2-3 years: The virus is no longer a serious threat in most countries either due to mass suppression via testing and quarantine and/or or a mass-administered vaccine. 

 

5-10 years: The global economy starts to look like something like what it was pre-pandemic. Economic destruction will be the longest lasting and potentially the most damaging effect of the pandemic. We could be in for a global depression / global economic collapse. Eventually the world will rebound, but it will not happen quickly and the global economy will not look the same when it does. 

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5 minutes ago, sirineou said:

 

First some say "accept the death rate and go on with no restrictions" . The number of deaths  is  because of restrictions, what do you think the number of deaths  would be if there were no restrictions?? 

 

The countries with the strictest restrictions (Italy, France, Spain) are those showing the worst results, by far...how come?

 

Other countries, notably in East Asia, have gotten much better results with less restrictions...go figure...

 

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Just now, Brunolem said:

The countries with the strictest restrictions (Italy, France, Spain) are those showing the worst results, by far...how come?

 

Other countries, notably in East Asia, have gotten much better results with less restrictions...go figure...

 

Countries that eat a lot of pasta also have the most infections, 

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