Herd Immunity vs Lockdown

[Pilotman]

Just now, UbonThani said:

That's great however the topic is Corona. Can't spoon feed everyone.

 if you are implicitly criticising other's lack of knowledge, I would suggest that you make sure that your own phrasing is accurate and correct,

[UbonThani]

3 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

governments worldwide are paying attempt to informed experts a

Really?

Total chaos

Different doctors saying different things

Different countries adopting different ideas

 

It seems these "experts" don't have much of an idea.

[richard_smith237]

17 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Obviously you don't understand how viruses work. You cannot catch a virus if you dont stay close to people and wash your hands.

 

You don’t understand what viruses are or the difference between contagious and infectious diseases... 

 

Malaria, Zika, Bubonic Plague, Yellow Fever, Japanese Encephalitis, Rabies... none spread by humans.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

And it is extremely unlikely that you ever will.

The virus itself does not kill. or all infections would result in death. The danger comes from the body's reaction to the virus and the weaker the immune system the more devastating the reaction can be.

Semantics but correct - The SARS-nCov-19 Virus causes Covid-19, a disease to which the body’s immune system reacts, or rather, over-reacts.

[UbonThani]

2 minutes ago, allanos said:

Not true to say that bubonic plague cannot be spread by humans.  Although transmitted from infected rats to fleas, and then from flea bites on human flesh, the plague may also be transmitted much like a coronavirus, by an infected person coughing or sneezing when in close proximity to someone else.

 https://www.history.com/news/rats-didnt-spread-the-black-death-it-was-humans

 

 

[garygooner]

Governments have really tough calls to make. However, I wonder how many people will now pass away due to anxiety, high blood pressure, mental health problems, suicide and let's not forget crime. 

[rech]

I still do not understand why we cannot just let people die ?!

 

[UbonThani]

2 minutes ago, garygooner said:

Governments have really tough calls to make. However, I wonder how many people will now pass away due to anxiety, high blood pressure, mental health problems, suicide and let's not forget crime. 

Correct. Lockdowns need to be short lived.

[allanos]

1 minute ago, rech said:

I still do not understand why we cannot just let people die ?!

 

That's a good ask.

 

Advanced, so-called progressive civilisations, believe that everything humanly possibly should be done to preserve life, at any stage.

[UbonThani]

2 minutes ago, rech said:

I still do not understand why we cannot just let people die ?!

 

Saving lives is a good thing but they never do this for bigger killers. Better balance needed. 50m die a year no shutdowns.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, allanos said:

6 minutes ago, rech said:

I still do not understand why we cannot just let people die ?!

 

That's a good ask.

 

Advanced, so-called progressive civilisations, believe that everything humanly possibly should be done to preserve life, at any stage.

Indeed... perhaps we should have just ‘offed’ Alexander Flemming before his discovery of penicillin, or Jonas Salk and Albert Sabin (Polio), Edward Jenner (small pox) and let people die instead !!! - how can some people come up with such insane and idiotic comments is beyond me, don’t they think ? 

[UbonThani]

7 minutes ago, allanos said:

That's a good ask.

 

Advanced, so-called progressive civilisations, believe that everything humanly possibly should be done to preserve life, at any stage.

Not really. They choose.

[richard_smith237]

8 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

11 minutes ago, garygooner said:

Governments have really tough calls to make. However, I wonder how many people will now pass away due to anxiety, high blood pressure, mental health problems, suicide and let's not forget crime. 

Correct. Lockdowns need to be short lived.

We agree !!!! 

 

We only get one chance at the lock-down so it has to be long enough to work and short enough for the populace not to revolt against. 

 

Regarding comment about ‘how many people will pass away due to anxiety, high blood pressure, mental health problems, suicide and crime’... most of that can be medicated against or controlled in some form or manner - there are systems in place to try and do something about the consequence social issues related to ‘lock down’... 

 

There is nothing known at the moment that we can do about Covid-19 other than palliative treatment and isolation.

 

The modelled deaths are surely far greater than social consequences, hence the world wide reaction. 

[snowgard]

On 4/4/2020 at 2:33 PM, Brewster67 said:

Sweden, no lockdowns, pubs open, no fines or curfews, zero restrictions.

 

Average rate of new cases daily

Sweden = 9%

UK =13%

USA = 15%

France = 20%

 

Ok, fly there!!!

[nausea]

I don't know about herd immunity, this seems to be some sort of herd response. Weird, really weird. Most guys like me, are wondering, is this really necesssary, to protect like 1 or 2 per cent of the world's population. These guys can go into isolation. As I will myself, being a heavy smoker and drinker. Though, experience tells me I'll survive it, takes a lot to kill me. Ha! Drowning in my own spit isn't on the agenda. 

[Pilotman]

22 minutes ago, rech said:

I still do not understand why we cannot just let people die ?!

 

you first 

[darksidedog]

A goodly number of posts have been removed, for Flaming, Bickering, accusing and reaccusing others of trolling etc. along with replies to all of it.

Those who wish to be able to post on the forum for the next week, would be well advised to cut it out, and stick to the topic under discussion only. Next one to throw abuse at another poster gets a holiday.

[Thian]

On 4/4/2020 at 6:22 PM, richard_smith237 said:

People are indicating that the death toll will be worse due to the world economy failing? 

How exactly?

Depression ( a brit jumped from the tollway yesterday), domestic violence, bankruptcy, boredom and so on.

[SiSePuede419]

o Over 60 and I don't mind dying in a hallway in a hospital because there aren't enough ventilators, because I don't mind sacrificing my life and the lives of many others to restart the economy too soon to flatten the curve.

o Nope ????

[richard_smith237]

12 minutes ago, Thian said:

On 4/4/2020 at 3:22 PM, richard_smith237 said:

People are indicating that the death toll will be worse due to the world economy failing? 

How exactly?

Depression ( a brit jumped from the tollway yesterday), domestic violence, bankruptcy, boredom and so on.

Poor fella, its going to be tough for a lot of people, its also going to be tough for a lot of people who’s friends and family die. It could be a great deal more tough for people if there is no lock-down for a few months. 

 

The Economy is also going to take a hit due to MBS’s spat with Putin, there are many other ‘tigger’ factors which may cause the emotionally fragile to react in an a tragic manner.

 

The question is then: Is the potential negative knock on impact (domestic violence, bankruptcy, boredom, reduced research into medicine, impact on the mentally and emotionally fragile and further unknown or unmentioned issues) worse than the additional impact from the potential deaths due to Covid-19 if no control measures (isolation) are put in place, there will still be an emotional impact and other unknown or unmentioned issues associated with a large number of deaths. 

 

Ultimately, there is no ‘good decision to make’ so which is the least worst of the two decisions to make? Lockdown or let the virus run its course. 

[Roy Baht]

Letting the virus run its course is not an option--so all you "let's just go back to normal" people are morons--because when all the hospital beds are full with COVID-19 sufferers and you (moron) have one of your "hold my beer" moments and are rushed to the ER, they will not be able to treat you. Get it? Moron?

[richard_smith237]

50 minutes ago, nausea said:

I don't know about herd immunity, this seems to be some sort of herd response. Weird, really weird. Most guys like me, are wondering, is this really necesssary, to protect like 1 or 2 per cent of the world's population. These guys can go into isolation. As I will myself, being a heavy smoker and drinker. Though, experience tells me I'll survive it, takes a lot to kill me. Ha! Drowning in my own spit isn't on the agenda. 

I suspect that once the exponential growth has been limited and the insane rate of transmission of this virus has been controlled returning to our business will be the next course of action - after a further period of quarantine until the case load is actually dropping. 

 

People who have had the virus will have ‘had it’ and gotten over it in isolation (mild cases) or in hospitals which are not overwhelmed (hopefully in most cases) - there will also be many who haven’t had Covid-19 and will still be susceptible, but after a period of quarantine there will be less people spreading it (hopefully). 

 

Those who can will still be asked to work from home. Those who can’t will be asked to be extra cautious when working and travelling. 

 

People will be far more careful, everyone will be washing their hands, everyone will be carrying hand sanitiser !! the world will be different.

 

 

‘Herd Immunity’ is still the goal - just not all at once. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by richard_smith237

[utalkin2me]

14 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

4 weeks of lock-down seems to do the trick.

Italy, Norway and Denmark are now seeing a drop in ICU patients.

 

Isn't that obvious though. Of course that will "help". 

 

But what nobody answers, is what do they do after that?

[richard_smith237]

29 minutes ago, SiSePuede419 said:

o Over 60 and I don't mind dying in a hallway in a hospital because there aren't enough ventilators, because I don't mind sacrificing my life and the lives of many others to restart the economy too soon to flatten the curve.

o Nope ????

[I don't mind sacrificing my life and the lives of many others]

Others do mind you sacrificing their lives to suffocate unnecessarily in a hallway which is why Curfews and forced lockdowns are necessary !

 

I wonder how many people are hiding behind this impact to the economy argument when really all they are upset about is that they can no longer frolic with #33 at snatch-grabbers-a-go-go and are now feeling a little sad and sorry for themselves.... 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

8 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

Isn't that obvious though. Of course that will "help". 

 

But what nobody answers, is what do they do after that?

Well hopefully 4 weeks of lock down is all it takes...   IF lockdown has been carried out properly and the virus has had no chance to spread, those who have had it (with mild symptoms) will have got through it. Those who haven’t had it wont catch it so readily as there are fewer carriers. Those serious cases have hopefully been treated in a health care system which wasn’t overwhelmed. 

 

What to do after that? - be very careful about the potential for a ‘second wave’ hopefully by then there will be vaccines and effective treatment. If not, another lockdown will come with a huge amount of opposition from the media and pubic.

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, snowgard said:

On 4/4/2020 at 11:33 AM, Brewster67 said:

Sweden, no lockdowns, pubs open, no fines or curfews, zero restrictions.

 

Average rate of new cases daily

Sweden = 9%

UK =13%

USA = 15%

France = 20%

 

Ok, fly there!!!

I'm not sure you can. Sweden has implemented border restrictions to all but Swedes and Residents.

As all nearby counties are on lockdown getting flights there is extremely difficult anyway.

 

Schools are closing and the country is under growing local pressure to implement stronger measures. 

 

The popular story that Sweden is doing things different is becoming less and less accurate by the day as Sweden is slowly forced to lock itself down. 

 

The reality is also that Sweden has a very low population density (11x less than the UK) and its citizens appear to be following the general guidelines for social distancing - i.e. the citizens of Sweden (and Finland, Norway, Denmark) seem to be more socially responsible than their prema-donna cousins in the UK, France and many other nations were lockdown has been enforced. 

 

 

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Well hopefully 4 weeks of lock down is all it takes...   IF lockdown has been carried out properly and the virus has had no chance to spread, those who have had it (with mild symptoms) will have got through it. Those who haven’t had it wont catch it so readily as there are fewer carriers. Those serious cases have hopefully been treated in a health care system which wasn’t overwhelmed. 

 

What to do after that? - be very careful about the potential for a ‘second wave’ hopefully by then there will be vaccines and effective treatment. If not, another lockdown will come with a huge amount of opposition from the media and pubic.

Those who haven't got it will step out and get it. 

 

They have no immunity.

 

Even taking the very conservative ten to twenty times multiple of Vallance in the UK there have to be 420,000 to 840,000 infected. Other academics say it's several million.

 

Whatever the real number, that's a lot of carriers, almost all of whom will not be in quarantine but out and about.

 

Lockdown = next wave assured.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Logosone

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Those who haven't got it will step out and get it. 

 

They have no immunity.

 

Even taking the very conservative ten to twenty times multiple of Vallance in the UK there have to be 420,000 to 840,000 infected. Other academics say it's several million.

 

Whatever the real number, that's a lot of carriers, almost all of whom will not be in quarantine but out and about.

 

Lockdown = next wave assured.

 

Who will they catch it from if everyone has been in lockdown and passed the stage of being contagious?

 

I know, thats a naive question. There will inevitably be a next wave - I don’t think that is avoidable, what I believe is avoidable is that the ’transmission rate’ of this ’next wave’ will be reduced, hopefully to within limits whereby the hospitals are not overwhelmed with serious cases. 

 

Our release back into the wild will have to be controlled somehow - people will still have to work from home, social distancing measures will remain the norm while we go on with our lives.

 

The issue of course is that a localised outbreak at the local Witherspoons will spread fairly quickly again, but by then most will have had the virus or we will have medication and vaccines (thats a hope anyway).

 

The end result is a year from now the deaths will have been minimised significantly than had we done nothing - thats the theory anyway. 

 

 

 

 

[BKKBike09]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Spare you what? the consideration of a response to an utterly ill thought out argument. 

 

You misunderstand the terms Critical and Essential - What is essential or critical to you and I is not necessarily essential to the continuing function of the community.

If you are a Doctor (I have strong suspicions you are not) then your job is critical. If you are refuse collector (more probable), your job is also critical / essential to the well being of a community. If you are running a beer bar in Pattaya, no matter what you think, your business is not essential or critical to the continuing function of the community. 

 

We ARE all in lock down together (nothing to do with comfort or privilege) and everything to do with all following the same regulations together, to protect each other, no matter who we are. 

The fact that those you mentioned ‘who have none of the comforts’ may be in the highest risk groups without access to medical care highlights your absolute and total ignorance of a real issue when instead you choose to bring up ‘privilege and comfort’ which just means some will find isolation more difficult, but no less important. 

 

Of course we’re all in it together - when the virus continues to spread too quickly (and overwhelm the health services) because of a few of us it will impact all of us - I can’t believe people not intelligent enough to grasp this already. 

 

I'm not misunderstanding anything. The well being and continuing function of a community is inextricably tied to employment, particularly in economies where State assistance for the less fortunate in society is minimal.

 

Saying "We ARE all in lock down together (nothing to do with comfort or privilege)" is akin to the directors of a company saying to rank-and-file employees "we're hurting just like you; look, I've taken a 25% pay cut (from 350K a year)". If you can't see how personal circumstances are hugely relevant to this issue, then I will fire your "absolute and total ignorance of a real issue" comment straight back at you.

 

Professor Graham Medley, who chairs the UK GOV Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (which oversees mathematical models for the Government) said it well yesterday:

 

"The measures to control [the disease] cause harm. The principal one is economic, and I don’t mean to the economy generally, I mean to the incomes of people who rely on a continuous stream of money and their children, particularly the school closure aspect. There will also be actual harms in terms of mental health, in terms of domestic violence and child abuse, and in terms of food poverty. If we carry on with lockdown it buys us more time, we can get more thought put into it, but it doesn’t resolve anything - it’s a placeholder.”

 

Regardless of our personal views on these issues, I hope you would agree that the critical action now has to be mass testing, because that is the only way that the true spread of this virus can be determined. Without that information, how can any policy maker know when to end lockdown? 

[frantick]

As far as life after this mess, I for one won't be wearing a mask nor extra cleaning of my hands unless it's a government requirement. I've never had a flu shot ever either.

 

'cause science peeps initial models were way off, and now they wish to proceed as if those models are still accurate.