STILL Sweden bucks the trend:

[Krataiboy]

On 4/5/2020 at 8:40 AM, Logosone said:

The mortality rate based on identified cases and deaths from Johns Hopkins:

 

Sweden : 5%

 

UK:         10%

 

The UK has extreme social distancing. Sweden does not.

 

Yet Sweden has a mortality rate half as high as the UK.

 

So another clear illustration that social distancing is of very little use.

Not necessarily. One factor at play could be the age profile of the UK, where 16 percent of the population is over 65. The other day, a UK newspaper reported 13 COVID 19 deaths in just one care home.

 

The fact that so many elderly folk often have serious and/or even terminal underlying health problems explains why, worldwide, they are overwhelmingly the most at-risk group.

 

Sensible social distancing is key to keeping infections down, along with protecting the older generation from unknown numbers of younger asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

[Parsve]

On 4/5/2020 at 5:40 AM, TheDark said:

Sweden is really quit odd case today. What I understood is that their government stepped back and let a civil servant practically run the country. 

 

This is what happens, when populists, from left or right are gaining power. They are useless as leaders. 

 

Hopefully Sweden find her way soon enough. Otherwise Sweden is going to be sick man of Europe.

That is wrong. What the Swedish gouvernment have said is that  a pandomi is not a political thing, so we have to listen to those that are specialists in this subject.

[Logosone]

18 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Not necessarily. One factor at play could be the age profile of the UK, where 16 percent of the population is over 65. The other day, a UK newspaper reported 13 COVID 19 deaths in just one care home.

 

The fact that so many elderly folk often have serious and/or even terminal underlying health problems explains why, worldwide, they are overwhelmingly the most at-risk group.

 

Sensible social distancing is key to keeping infections down, along with protecting the older generation from unknown numbers of younger asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

Except the World Bank says 20% of Swedes are over the age of 65.

 

So if age was the key factor, and I would agree, its correlation with deaths would make it a prime candidate, how to account for the fact that Sweden's share of over 65s is larger with 20%?

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/population-ages-65-and-above-percent-of-total-wb-data.html

 

Is there any evidence that the elderly are disproportionately affected in the UK, when compared with Sweden?

 

If social distancing is so key then the UK should be a stellar performer in terms keeping cases down. In fact the one place that has succeeded in keeping cases down, South Korea, is distinguished by its strong testing policy.

[Throatwobbler]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:45 AM, Logosone said:

Yes, I just looked it up, at one point Austrian testing numbers approached South Korea.

 

They tested a lot more than Sweden.

 

So there we have it. Again, testing and isolating the infected is what makes a difference.

 

Social distancing clearly does not. Sweden has far less social distancing than the UK, yet still half the mortality rate.

Still moaning about the social distancing. Please tell me again where you studied infectious disease and global pandemics. Please tell us which diseases you have helped to fight on a global level. It is clear that you think you know better than the experts so I think it would be nice for us all to know your experience in dealing with each such diseases

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

In fact the one place that has succeeded in keeping cases down, South Korea, is distinguished by its strong testing policy.

And also geotracking it's people. It's a necessity for preventing clusters. The European privacy laws will be a hurdle.

[Throatwobbler]

On 4/5/2020 at 10:48 AM, Logosone said:

If social distancing affects the percentage of people who get the virus then it affects the percentage of deaths because it is the virus that causes the deaths.

 

The greater the number of infected the greater the likelihood of deaths.

 

Unless the infected are isolated properly or you have a miracle therapy. None of which applies in most countries, including Sweden and UK.

You clearly do not know what you are talking about. The above post makes zero sense.

[Krataiboy]

25 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Except the World Bank says 20% of Swedes are over the age of 65.

 

So if age was the key factor, and I would agree, its correlation with deaths would make it a prime candidate, how to account for the fact that Sweden's share of over 65s is larger with 20%?

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/population-ages-65-and-above-percent-of-total-wb-data.html

 

Is there any evidence that the elderly are disproportionately affected in the UK, when compared with Sweden?

 

If social distancing is so key then the UK should be a stellar performer in terms keeping cases down. In fact the one place that has succeeded in keeping cases down, South Korea, is distinguished by its strong testing policy.

It's numbers rather than percentages that matter here.  Sweden has around one and a quarter million elderly, compared with the UK's nine million or so vulnerable old folk. If I were a virus I know where I would wish to end up.

 

Social distancing scrupulously observed is clearly effective at preventing new infections, whereas South Korea has concentrated on mass testing and tracking and tracing.  A combination of both methods would seem sensible.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Krataiboy

[Logosone]

10 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

It's numbers rather than percentages that matter here.  Sweden has around one and a quarter million elderly, compared with the UK's nine million or so vulnerable old folk. If I were a virus I know where I would wish to end up.

 

Social distancing scrupulously observed is clearly effective at preventing new infections, whereas South Korea has concentrated on mass testing and tracking and tracing.  A combination of both methods would seem sensible.

Well Japan has an even older population than the UK, in even larger numbers.

 

Yet the virus is not rampaging there causing the same death rate as in the UK.

 

Social distancing is effective at the very start of a pandemic, but less so after a virus has spread already. Cooping up infected youngsters with older parents and grandparents could make things worse.

 

I don't think both measures are equally successful and equally important. Testing, finding and isolating the infected is the best possible weapon. Isolating the healthy from the healthy does nothing. Isolating the sick is far more successful, for obvious reasons.

 

And I'm pretty certain, if Britain had had the option of mass testing, that's the option they would have taken. They just didn't have the test kits or icu beds, so social distancing was the only option.

 

 

[Logosone]

36 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

And also geotracking it's people. It's a necessity for preventing clusters. The European privacy laws will be a hurdle.

Germany is already working on the app.

[DrTuner]

Just now, Logosone said:

Germany is already working on the app.

Will be a hard sell if it's to be mandatory. I'm following with interest.

[Baerboxer]

On 4/5/2020 at 8:27 AM, Denim said:

Be interesting to see how Sweden's strategy pans out. Might turn out to be a role model for everywhere else.

 

An acceptable number of deaths vs total economic collapse.

 

Exactly what they will decide is acceptable remains to be seen.

 

Hmmm. Wonder how many of those "acceptable deaths" would be politicians and their families?

[Logosone]

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/privacy-mad-germany-turns-to-app-to-track-virus-spread

[Kadilo]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Germany is already working on the app.

Ooh your country is so clever. 

Edited April 6, 2020 by Kadilo

[Logosone]

Tell me about it

 

It's such a blessing.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Logosone

[Kadilo]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Will be a hard sell if it's to be mandatory. I'm following with interest.

The UK has already stated it is an option going forward and have shown a version on TV. 

[spiekerjozef]

The secret of Sweden:

 

Surströmming.

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by spiekerjozef

[Krataiboy]

14 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well Japan has an even older population than the UK, in even larger numbers.

 

Yet the virus is not rampaging there causing the same death rate as in the UK.

 

Social distancing is effective at the very start of a pandemic, but less so after a virus has spread already. Cooping up infected youngsters with older parents and grandparents could make things worse.

 

I don't think both measures are equally successful and equally important. Testing, finding and isolating the infected is the best possible weapon. Isolating the healthy from the healthy does nothing. Isolating the sick is far more successful, for obvious reasons.

 

And I'm pretty certain, if Britain had had the option of mass testing, that's the option they would have taken. They just didn't have the test kits or icu beds, so social distancing was the only option.

 

 

With so many variables at play here it's virtually impossible to explain how different strokes for different folks seems to be working - or doesn't.

 

A couple of things we can be sure about is that 1 The vulnerable elderly account for the vast majority of deaths and 2 The majority of healthy young people who become infected suffer mostly mild or no symptoms. 

 

Keeping the generations apart is probably the kind of social distancing most likely to limit the death toll until the corona express peaks and runs out of steam.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Krataiboy

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, spiekerjozef said:

The secret of Sweden:

 

Surströmming.

 

Even viruses keep a safety distance from that chemical weapon.

[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

Maybe Sweden copy the old Viking method of getting rid of all the old folks?

Edited April 6, 2020 by HiSoLowSoNoSo

[Denim]

15 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Hmmm. Wonder how many of those "acceptable deaths" would be politicians and their families?

Ask Boris, he might be one of them

[Antiparovian]

On 4/5/2020 at 8:40 AM, Logosone said:

The mortality rate based on identified cases and deaths from Johns Hopkins:

 

Sweden : 5%

 

UK:         10%

 

The UK has extreme social distancing. Sweden does not.

 

Yet Sweden has a mortality rate half as high as the UK.

 

So another clear illustration that social distancing is of very little use.

Quoted Mortality Rates are pointless. They depend totally on the number of people being tested.

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, Antiparovian said:

Quoted Mortality Rates are pointless. They depend totally on the number of people being tested.

Not really. You can apply the famous Vallance ten times multiplier.

 

The rate difference for Sweden and the UK would be the same.

[balo]

16 hours ago, Logosone said:

This strongly suggests Norway has tested more than Sweden. So Sweden has tested somewhat less and the UK, who had no test kits for a long time based its strategy therefore heavily on sd for a longer time and only recently tried, unsuccessfully, to ramp up testing levels to German levels.

 

So for now the country that has tested most has the lowest mortality rate. However, the real test will come after Norway returns to normal and Sweden does too. While cases in the short term look to be getting worse in Sweden, in the longer term Sweden may have greater immunity, whereas the more lockdown prone Norway and Denmark could have less due to the lockdown and be more susceptible to further waves.

This will be very interesting to study the next months. And when will the borders open up again ?  Norway and Sweden with completely opposite strategies.  
In Norway the virus is more or less under control, but for how long? They are talking about opening up the schools again after Easter. 

Sweden looks terrible now, but maybe in 6 months they have achieved some sort of flock immunity, and Norway/Denmark will get another wave of the virus. Only time will tell.    

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by balo

[rabang]

There is some worry that an effective early response might lead to a lower but longer curve and slower recovery. Only time will tell what kind of approach is the best.

 

About Sweden one has to understand that it is a very ideological country in many respects, and in a way optimistic. You can see it from the way they deal with the immigration issues, not seeing anything wrong about taking loads of people from culturally alien places. On the other hand it is also a very hypocritical and politically correct country. Behind the scenes there is a class society.  I would go as far as saying that the Swedish elites might be ready for a mild culling if they saw it as the most effective way of getting the country back on track after the corona peak has passed.

Edited April 6, 2020 by rabang

[scubascuba3]

15 minutes ago, rabang said:

There is some worry that an effective early response might lead to a lower but longer curve and slower recovery. Only time will tell what kind of approach is the best.

 

About Sweden one has to understand that it is a very ideological country in many respects, and in a way optimistic. You can see it from the way they deal with the immigration issues, not seeing anything wrong about taking loads of people from culturally alien places. On the other hand it is also a very hypocritical and politically correct country. Behind the scenes there is a class society.  I would go as far as saying that the Swedish elites might be ready for a mild culling if they saw it as the most effective way of getting the country back on track after the corona peak has passed.

a mild culling is exactly what will go on, seems a reasonable approach to me

[dananderson]

Sweden currently has 477 covid deaths/fatalities.  Finland has 28.  Norway has 76.  Will both Finland and Norway put travel restrictions on Sweden?  

 

[rabang]

36 minutes ago, dananderson said:

Sweden currently has 477 covid deaths/fatalities.  Finland has 28.  Norway has 76.  Will both Finland and Norway put travel restrictions on Sweden?  

 

There are many demanding that the borders should be closed to everyone except essential health care personnel.

[banglay]

On 4/5/2020 at 8:40 AM, Logosone said:

The mortality rate based on identified cases and deaths from Johns Hopkins:

 

Sweden : 5%

 

UK:         10%

 

The UK has extreme social distancing. Sweden does not.

 

Yet Sweden has a mortality rate half as high as the UK.

 

So another clear illustration that social distancing is of very little use.

Of cause Sweden is showing a lower infection rate as from the day 

Sweden has tested 36900 ..... UK  has 252958  ..  if you don't test the true figures of infection will not be correct .... Governments will always spin figures to fit their narrative .... " Don't look and you'll not see"

[Throatwobbler]

19 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

Still moaning about the social distancing. Please tell me again where you studied infectious disease and global pandemics. Please tell us which diseases you have helped to fight on a global level. It is clear that you think you know better than the experts so I think it would be nice for us all to know your experience in dealing with each such diseases

Since Logosone did not answer my question I think it is fairly safe to assume. Just another TVF armchair expert who has no training and no experience yet somehow thinks he knows better than the experts.

[balo]

19 hours ago, dananderson said:

Sweden currently has 477 covid deaths/fatalities.

591 deaths now , the biggest increase in one day. 
Not looking good at all. They have not reached the top yet.  

Today the Norwegian government decided to open up the schools again on 27th April.  I think Denmark also open up their schools.
But there will be restrictions inside the class room. Social distancing must be respected , so the teachers really have a job to do to follow the guide lines. 
In Norway, hairdressers and public libraries will also open.  

The borders between Norway and Sweden will remain closed , only critical transport are allowed in. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by balo