Thailand reports 102 new coronavirus cases, three more deaths

[RJRS1301]

1 hour ago, bangkokfrog said:

We seem to be fairly consistent in the daily number of new cases and deaths, whereas in most other countries the increase is exponential. Is this the world's best medical hub or what?

Tests per capita being conducted is what needs to be released

Numbers of diagnosed is a raw figure and does not give full picture of spread of virus 

[shady86]

Why not announcing how many tests done per day. 

[scubascuba3]

It's getting suspicious, i wonder whether they are only doing 100ish tests a day.

 

Worldmeter is adding a number of tests field soon so will be easy to check

[DrTuner]

12 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Tests per capita being conducted is what needs to be released

And they are going in the exact opposite direction by deleting the number of pending tests from the reports. It's a clear as a day indication of MoPH not wanting to publish the information. 

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

Worldmeter is adding a number of tests field soon so will be easy to check

And where do you think they would get the raw data from?

[fgmr]

2 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

We seem to be fairly consistent in the daily number of new cases and deaths, whereas in most other countries the increase is exponential. Is this the world's best medical hub or what?

Probably the worst hub for reporting new cases?

[DrTuner]

42 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Are the public health messages even trying to educate the Thai people about this? If they are, it is not working.

Given the deep and well earned mistrust Thais have for the "authorities", anything that comes from them is blatantly ignored, unless enforced with guns. That's the price of corruption. 

 

This epidemic is shining a bright spotlight on all the failures of flawed regimes and cultures.

Edited April 5, 2020 by DrTuner

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

And where do you think they would get the raw data from?

we'll see whether it's 105 tests done and 105 positive, won't be hard to spot if it's fishy

[RJRS1301]

Tests per capita

Test conducted

People under invetigation

Diagnosed positive

Age of + test

Gender

Deaths and any comorbidities

 

These are the figures needed to ascertain rate of infectivity

 

[fgmr]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

And where do you think they would get the raw data from?

If the stats are made up to look good, who needs factual raw data?

 

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, RJRS1301 said:

Tests per capita

Test conducted

People under invetigation

Diagnosed positive

Age of + test

Gender

Deaths and any comorbidities

 

These are the figures needed to ascertain rate of infectivity

 

Also where the tested samples were collected, so people can start using machine learning to predict outbreak locations and use that information to prevent them. One can dream.

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, fgmr said:

If the stats are made up to look good, who needs factual raw data?

You have earned the Thainess Medal of Honor today, Sir!

[ThailandRyan]

42 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Must be the only country in the world with nearly perfect linear growth. Thailaaaaannnn different, na.

You forgot.....Same Same, but different

[RJRS1301]

2 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Also where the tested samples were collected, so people can start using machine learning to predict outbreak locations and use that information to prevent them. One can dream.

Cluster identification is essential, but I am agnostic about releasing that information,it could increase  panic (whitchhunts, stigma) or increase complacency

 

[Bkk Brian]

36 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Tests per capita being conducted is what needs to be released

Numbers of diagnosed is a raw figure and does not give full picture of spread of virus 

Tests per capita are all here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ currently Thailand is 351 tests per 1 million people, pretty low

[Laza 45]

1 hour ago, dabhand said:

Based on a recent study of health care systems, from August 2019, Thailand ranked quite high at No.6.

 

As a guide to the ranking it is Interesting that the top 2, Taiwan and South Korea, are doing extremely well in controlling the CV outbreak.

 

https://ceoworld.biz/2019/08/05/revealed-countries-with-the-best-health-care-systems-2019/  

Taiwan is interesting:  https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, w94005m said:

Indeed. Let's hope the hot weather is a major contributing factor.

 

Press censorship/compliance and threat of government retribution against those who speak out of turn are the major factors.

 

"Temperate" Europe and North America (with their tiresome free press and functioning Democracies/accountable governments) far more difficult to gag and apply "attitude adjustment".

 

"Asian Values" continue to "reign".

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Enoon

[lannalad]

It's my understand that if a Thai is feeling unwell and is worried about having come down with Covid-19, he/she will be charged 7000 b. for a test.  The fee will be reimbursed if the test is positive.  Naturally, no one is hurrying to be tested and will just hope it is not Covid-19 and they are not infectious and spreading the virus among friends and family.

[zeamonkey]

56 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Tests per capita being conducted is what needs to be released

Numbers of diagnosed is a raw figure and does not give full picture of spread of virus 

Test per capita is not relevant for the curve. Only to satisfy tinfoilhat peoples curiosity.

[LawrenceN]

1 hour ago, DavisH said:

They tried using teat kits from China but they were unreliable - 

I'll bite. What's a "teat kit"? My imagination runs wild. Does it involve suction? Or maybe there's a typo you'd like to correct? 

[RJRS1301]

36 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Tests per capita are all here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ currently Thailand is 351 tests per 1 million people, pretty low

Thank you, very low

[RJRS1301]

15 minutes ago, zeamonkey said:

Test per capita is not relevant for the curve. Only to satisfy tinfoilhat peoples curiosity.

It is relevant for research, and tracking trends.

It also allows for the knowledge regarding spread of contagion in communities.

 

[RJRS1301]

1 hour ago, garygooner said:

It's interesting to see other countries in this region showing similar figures...Malaysia & Indonesia etc...and no deaths reported in Cambodia & Vietnam...Whereas in many European countries & the US. 

One has to question the reliabilty of data collection and certainly from some countries with less than adequate health care systems.

[bluedoc]

3 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

We seem to be fairly consistent in the daily number of new cases and deaths, whereas in most other countries the increase is exponential. Is this the world's best medical hub or what?

From a friend on Koh Samui.

 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

I wonder what criterion the Thai government will apply?

Depends on how many test are actually being performed daily... for around a 100 cases every day the measures in place seem harsh, unless the government know the figures are higher as people are not being tested.

[Dap]

3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Yes. Happy to see no sign yet of an exponential rise, though it is where these 102 people have been in the last ten days which we don't know. Awesome if some of them were already in some sort of quarantine, , though some of course may have been moving around far and wide. The Ro number, or how many other people each infected person passes it to is what is important and which remains largely unknown here.

At 100 a day it will come for us all in only about 1,900 years.

Best inform the wife now as that may not be enough time  

[offset]

6 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Depends on how many test are actually being performed daily... for around a 100 cases every day the measures in place seem harsh, unless the government know the figures are higher as people are not being tested.

Should you wait till the numbers get high before you do anything, also not sure I believe the numbers but just hope they are correct

[JCP108]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

OK,Let's assume they are testing 500-800 a day. More than that die every day in a normal year. Seems to me the best way get any idea of the real death number would compare the current death rates with normal death rate - problem is I have little faith that that number would not be doctored to

So, where do we go to get the death rates in Thailand broken down by month? If we really aren't seeing extra deaths now from C-19, then the first three months of 2020 should look a lot like the first three of 2019. Anyone know where to go for that data?

[Dap]

3 hours ago, DavisH said:

They are only testing suspected cases of covid for those that turn up at the hospital. Thailand has done 24474 tests for 2169 positive cases. That is an 8.8% positive rate. Other countries positive rates vary widely - very low in Australia, but over 50% in the Philippines. Sure, some people may have mild cases and never bother going to the doctor, but this is the same in every country. 

I'm not sure Thailand has the capacity to do mass testing, especially for those with mild symptoms. They tried using teat kits from China but they were unreliable - they were givign both false positive and false negative readings - info from my wife who is a Nursing college director and works closely with BIDI - one hospital treating covid patients. 

This info coming from the "Infectious Disease Institute" give it credence and they are the first numbers concerning testing that make any sense to me. Thank you.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Dap

[hotchilli]

38 minutes ago, offset said:

Should you wait till the numbers get high before you do anything, also not sure I believe the numbers but just hope they are correct

No I agree with some of the measures, but a nighttime curfew has limited affect but most disruption to society.

Better to educate people about how to self protect properly at home and in public, practice real social distancing and importance of personal hygiene.

My post was weighted towards the seemingly low number of infections against the government figures to date.