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Covid-19 death rate in Thailand averages 0.97 per cent


Jonathan Fairfield

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16 hours ago, sezze said:

There are different strains around of Covid , 1 being more deadly then the other . Many countries in Europe seem to have the more deadly strain , since death rate Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10% . While others in Europe ( and world ) got very low death rate . I take Europe as example since all countries next to each other , and healthcare / counting / measures taken are more or less same ( yes i know , not all the same ) . Is this the case also i Thailand , idk , but i expect it is like that , otherwise the hospitals would already be overwhelmed or have deaths everywhere , even if they not counted as Covid .

Yep, and the Germans got the milder asian strain. That one is well educated it stops right at the non existent border between Germany and the rest of the European Federation (to be).

Be serious please, the only significant figures are those of the workload of emergency services. Even the number of deaths will have to reassessed and merged into the "normal" mortality figures over the next year or two.

I have seen figures of deaths in France (which I am not allow to share here), for the first quarters of 2018, 2018 2020; 2020 is higher that 2019, but nearly identical to 2018.

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1 hour ago, Robert Tyrrell said:

Hello,

 

This percentage rate of 0.97 % is VERY FALSE !! For 3 Reasons.

 

1. The amount of people STILL NOT !! Tested in Thailand, Just like many places in the World.

 

2. Asymptomatic Carriers of Covid-19 showing no visible signs of the Virus and are carriers still spreading the virus !! 


3. These issues will adjust a much higher percentage after the Apex has been reached , Deaths will rise significantly !!

Your logic is flawed. Currently only the very ill are being tested and those with milder cases and the asymptomatic cases your mentioned most likely arnt being tested. If there were tested you indeed would see the number of cases rise but you would see the death rate lower.

There have been reports from Iceland who have the highest per capita testing of citizens including those who dont have symptoms at all. It show's that 40 percent of people who test positive dont display symptoms at all. This is inline with the mandatory testing on the japanese cruise ship that also showed similar statistics. This means that the current reported number of cases is far higher across the world but that forces down the fatality rate considerably. 

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Are ALL those that die tested for coronavirus?

 

If those that die, other than those in hospital, are not tested how can the figures be accurate -- or used as policy-making statistics!  And have all the small rural hospitals been given testing kits?

 

(You can safely assume that non-hospital deaths are not tested!)

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Might as well ignite all test results numbers in all countries coz it don’t mean jack-s*t , only thing the world needs more is the antibodies test then it will no doubt free up millions of people who have now become immune, so then can help others and keep society going by going back to work etc. 
thailand will fair a lot better than many in China Europe and USA because covid-19 dieIng 25- 26c and all dead by 27c with thailand now at 30c means the virus is very restricted as it would burn up in the air , but actual physical contact and all other well published guidelines should be follows - for me I got stuck in UK as flights grounded otherwise I’d definitely of been there and no other place I’d rather be too.

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There are a lot of unknowns here, it is right to say that there are probably a lot more cases and this would suggest a lower rate.

 

However, I also read an article about Jakarta that said there had been 40% more funerals in March 2020 than a normal month (easy to google this story - from a reputable news source). Would be interesting to see the figures in other SE Asian cities where testing is low.

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35 minutes ago, flyingfox1 said:

only thing the world needs more is the antibodies test then it will no doubt free up millions of people who have now become immune, so then can help others and keep society going by going back to work etc. 

The question there is, how long will the acquired immunity last. If the period is too short, the virus will just bounce around in clusters and come back right at you. 

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4 minutes ago, chessman said:

However, I also read an article about Jakarta that said there had been 40% more funerals in March 2020 than a normal month (easy to google this story - from a reputable news source). Would be interesting to see the figures in other SE Asian cities where testing is low.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-indonesia-funerals/exclusive-jump-in-jakarta-funerals-raises-fears-of-unreported-coronavirus-deaths-idUSKBN21L2XU

 

I think linking to Reuters is ok.

Capture.JPG.4fa2ae50e761b79f211414626620ad30.JPG

 

No idea if similar data would be available for Bangkok.

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2 hours ago, What a carry on said:

Just a heads up.

 

I just popped out to the Tops across the road (Bangkok) from my condo to pay my internet bill and pick up a few items.

 

As I got near the shop, a Thai, probably in his thirties, muttered, 'Leave Thailand' as I walked past him (observing the two metre rule). At first, I wasn't sure what I'd heard (probably in disbelief), but there is no doubt whatsoever as to what he said.

 

No, I didn't say anything. He hopped on his waiting motorbike with his girlfriend and dog before I could. Probably for the best I said nothing. He must think I'd just arrived from Italy or something, instead of being a British national with a valid work permit, visa and a Thai wife? Despite paying more in tax in the 10 years out here than he ever will. Yeah, forget all the tax I pay to help your people needing hospital treatment. F...ing ingrate! 

 

Be careful out there guys, some of the natives are blaming the 'dirty farangs' for this disease and not the Chinese (or themselves for letting them in without restrictions...into one of the most popular tourist destinations on earth during peak season!)

 

Rant over. Be careful out there ????

 

Hopefully it was just an isolated incident. But that was the first time I've been outside for 3 days and I was out for about 10 minutes.

Next time just say

 

It comes from Chi Nah

Chi Nah, Chi Nah, Chi Nah

 

Chi Nah virus

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23 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

This only for people actually diagnosed as having the virus, after being actually tested, which is not a true figure.

As a statisticus and mathematician, you may assume that for those cases where patient has not been to MD the percentage could be same. Actually I think it will be less, because when people are closer to dying, they will search for medical help. Thailand is doing extremely well with sufficient analysis and timely measures, not like Europe and USA, who were undecisive to take measure for too long and thus now have a real problem. Seems that the Western world where we originate from are underdeveloped to handle these type of crises compared to Thailand. It is time for all those criticasters  to see the truth in this respect. Of course you can "positively" ctitisize Thailand, e.g. on traffic, but in this COVID case they have done much better.

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4 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

How many "true" figures are there? Many health experts are sceptical about the "official" data, not least that relating to deaths among elderly folk and those with underlying life-threatening conditions. As was revealed by a study of mortality rates in Italy, many deaths attributed COVID 19 were in fact due to other causes, yet wrongly attributed to the virus.

That is a gross distortion. The virus does not kill, it is conditions that are aggravated by the presence of the virus. If a patient dies of pneumonia and has tested positive it will be recorded as a covid-19 related death, if however the patient had not been tested cause of death would be pneumonia but that does not mean to say it was not covid-19 related.

The scepticism arises from the possibility of related deaths where no test had been carried out.

The UK death toll is purely from confirmed hospital cases, those that died at home or in care homes are not included even though it is known that many in care homes that died had been tested positive. 

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3 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

Yep, and the Germans got the milder asian strain. That one is well educated it stops right at the non existent border between Germany and the rest of the European Federation (to be).

Be serious please, the only significant figures are those of the workload of emergency services. Even the number of deaths will have to reassessed and merged into the "normal" mortality figures over the next year or two.

I have seen figures of deaths in France (which I am not allow to share here), for the first quarters of 2018, 2018 2020; 2020 is higher that 2019, but nearly identical to 2018.

Apart from potential strains, it must be the more adequate actions taken in Thailand and may be climate influence compared to Italy (always Italy), Spain, France and other European countries. (If you wish I can share the French figures, including the estimates from the old people's home; not a secret Boomer). Why is Germany better than Italy, Spain and France and others? Because they had their systems in order and working. They now sell their IC beds to neighbouring countries. Of course you find proper preparation that back in the figures. It is also proof that Germans look ahead, did leaed from the Chinese, while Italians etc are living by the day and therefore are tremendouly hit by the virus also due to its long incubation time.

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On 4/5/2020 at 3:06 PM, Thaiwrath said:

This only for people actually diagnosed as having the virus, after being actually tested, which is not a true figure.

The true US figure just got a lot more complicated.

 

A four-year-old tiger at the Bronx Zoo in New York has tested positive for coronavirus, likely the first case involving an animal in the US.

 

Nadia and six other big cats were symptomatic with a dry cough and were believed to have been infected by an asymptomatic member of the zoo staff.

The cat was tested "out of an abundance" of caution and the animals are reportedly doing well under veterinary care.

Nadia and her sister Azul, along with two other tigers and three lions are experiencing Covid-19 symptoms, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-news-boris-johnson-hospital-queen-speech-covid-19-update-latest-a9448706.html

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If calculated on completed cases (dead + recovered), which is the only accurate way to calculate during a running outbreak, the CMR is 3.18 per cent. It's pointless basing deaths on number of infections due to (a) under testing and (b) the death recorded today could have first appeared as a positive case up to 30 days earlier when the the number of diagnosed cases would have been substantially less. 

They update the CMR and country figures for Asean here every day. This is today's as of GMT 01:40 today 

https://aecnewstoday.com/2020/covid-19-in-asean-update-for-april-6/ 

 

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On 4/5/2020 at 3:24 PM, Thailand said:

So is the mortality rate so low because of the lack of testing or despite of the lack of testing?

Median age of positive cases in 34-35. This probably explains the low death rate. 

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4 hours ago, What a carry on said:

Just a heads up.

 

I just popped out to the Tops across the road (Bangkok) from my condo to pay my internet bill and pick up a few items.

 

As I got near the shop, a Thai, probably in his thirties, muttered, 'Leave Thailand' as I walked past him (observing the two metre rule). At first, I wasn't sure what I'd heard (probably in disbelief), but there is no doubt whatsoever as to what he said.

 

No, I didn't say anything. He hopped on his waiting motorbike with his girlfriend and dog before I could. Probably for the best I said nothing. He must think I'd just arrived from Italy or something, instead of being a British national with a valid work permit, visa and a Thai wife? Despite paying more in tax in the 10 years out here than he ever will. Yeah, forget all the tax I pay to help your people needing hospital treatment. F...ing ingrate! 

 

Be careful out there guys, some of the natives are blaming the 'dirty farangs' for this disease and not the Chinese (or themselves for letting them in without restrictions...into one of the most popular tourist destinations on earth during peak season!)

 

Rant over. Be careful out there ????

 

Hopefully it was just an isolated incident. But that was the first time I've been outside for 3 days and I was out for about 10 minutes.

He was just offering you good advice. Unlike in the West where they are verbally and physically abusing Asians, even those that were born there and are citizens. 

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7 hours ago, Oxx said:

The quoted death rate has two major flaws:   (a) not knowing the total number of individuals infected because of inadequate testing (as others have mentioned, and (b) failing to recognise that some of those infected but not yet dead may well still die.  In other words, it's fairly meaningless.

 

The simple percentage appears to be based upon something close to Sunday's reported numbers.  23 dead, 2,169 cases.  23/2169*100 = 1.06%

Your formula is flawed. It should dead/(dead + recovered) = 2.82%
dead/infections leaves 1,353 cases in transit who are neither dead nor recovered. It's nonsensical as when any of those 1,353 die if you then use the figure on the date of death in 15, 20, 25 days time then the number of infections and people in transit will also be greater. 

 

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1 hour ago, UbonThani said:

Next time just say

 

It comes from Chi Nah

Chi Nah, Chi Nah, Chi Nah

 

Chi Nah virus

Maybe so. But today, there are more Far Rangs, Far Rangs that have it. So tell me, do you feel safer standing next to a Chinese or a Far Rang?

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The global death rate is being touted at 3.4%, and there is no mutation.

 

With all due respect to the authorities in Thailand, claiming the Thai rate is 0.97% is a nonsense and under-reporting and/or poor diagnosis seems certain.

 

What a surprise.

 

It seems that TL has some very bad news coming, and the imposition of a 24-hour curfew after the 10pm-6am was in place for so short a time (certainly not sufficient for evaluation)strongly suggests Uncle Too is lying about that too. Watch this space.

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5 hours ago, What a carry on said:

Just a heads up.

 

I just popped out to the Tops across the road (Bangkok) from my condo to pay my internet bill and pick up a few items.

 

As I got near the shop, a Thai, probably in his thirties, muttered, 'Leave Thailand' as I walked past him (observing the two metre rule). At first, I wasn't sure what I'd heard (probably in disbelief), but there is no doubt whatsoever as to what he said.

 

No, I didn't say anything. He hopped on his waiting motorbike with his girlfriend and dog before I could. Probably for the best I said nothing. He must think I'd just arrived from Italy or something, instead of being a British national with a valid work permit, visa and a Thai wife? Despite paying more in tax in the 10 years out here than he ever will. Yeah, forget all the tax I pay to help your people needing hospital treatment. F...ing ingrate! 

 

Be careful out there guys, some of the natives are blaming the 'dirty farangs' for this disease and not the Chinese (or themselves for letting them in without restrictions...into one of the most popular tourist destinations on earth during peak season!)

 

Rant over. Be careful out there ????

 

Hopefully it was just an isolated incident. But that was the first time I've been outside for 3 days and I was out for about 10 minutes.

 

I think this is likely to become more frequent over time. The combination of low IQ, what must now be considered to be deliverate lies from the government and increasingly strident comment from some in the government are likely to guarantee this. If the death rate increases and the infection incidence spreads into so-far clear provinces, TL is going to have some serious problems.

 

 

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19 hours ago, sezze said:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

This is mentioned already multiple times , you can look on internet about the different strains around . Apparently , there are now many more strains around also , due to slight mutations . Mutation grade however does appear to be low according to scientists ( which is a good thing for finding long working vaccin ) . They do not have to be appeared at the same time , as mutations happen all the time , same like new virus breakouts happen 365 days a year . Most of the time luckily they are harmless and even if not so harmless , it is 1 person only infected . This time the virus made a few lucky streaks , getting the right mutation in the right place ( busy place , multimillion city ) and having a high spread rate . When it was under control in China , some hospital in Italy made a mistake ( could have happened everywhere and was bound to happen ) to get the secondary outbreak in holiday season in wintersports area . This way it spread easy all over Europe and also to US .

Evidently, the mutation rate to which COVID-19 is subject is extremely low and there is no evidence that a second, more dangerous form exists. Information dated today.

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, sandyf said:

That is a gross distortion. The virus does not kill, it is conditions that are aggravated by the presence of the virus. If a patient dies of pneumonia and has tested positive it will be recorded as a covid-19 related death, if however the patient had not been tested cause of death would be pneumonia but that does not mean to say it was not covid-19 related.

The scepticism arises from the possibility of related deaths where no test had been carried out.

The UK death toll is purely from confirmed hospital cases, those that died at home or in care homes are not included even though it is known that many in care homes that died had been tested positive. 

"The virus does not kill" Really? What about all those well-publicised graphic X-ray pictures of Chinese COVID-19 victims' lungs full of a ground glass-like substance attributed to the virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8101383/Shocking-X-ray-images-coronavirus-does-victims-lungs.html

 

You say the demise of a hospitalised patient with pneumonia who tested positive for the virus would be recorded as a COVID-19 related death (and presumably make the official COVID-19 fatalities list). Yet without a viral load count or post mortem, how certain is that verdict?

 

We know that Italy's sky-high death rate was at least partly the result of the way deaths and their causes were determined..

 

Professor Walter Ricciardi, an adviser to the Italian minister of health, admitted in a newspaper interview "the way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus."

 

Are you sure this isn't happening elsewhere, including the UK.

 

The UK death toll is not "purely from confirmed hospital cases". The UK government website with COVID-19 information says, "Slight differences in reporting in devolved administrations may mean that they include a small number of deaths outside hospital".

 

Some of these deaths, it says, involve residents in care homes. At just one home, in Scotland, which saw the corona virus "sweep through" it, 16 inmates have died, according to the Sun newspaper. "All the initial 13 fatalities are being linked to Covid-19, although it is understood not all of the victims had been tested," the report says.

 

Are cases like these automatically added to and distorting the UK Covid-19 deaths list? I'm just a layman, so you tell me.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8101383/Shocking-X-ray-images-coronavirus-does-victims-lungs.html

https://www.rt.com/news/484098-coronavirus-fatality-rates-exaggerated-italy/

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

 

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