Covid-19 death rate in Thailand averages 0.97 per cent

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, ParkerN said:

Evidently, the mutation rate to which COVID-19 is subject is extremely low and there is no evidence that a second, more dangerous form exists. Information dated today.

Thailand hasn't sequenced any new samples of the virus since I think January, nextstrain still shows the migration path as direct from China, others have found many new strains:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

 

UK in particular seems to have been busy sequencing in the last few days.

Edited April 6, 2020 by DrTuner

[GAZZPA]

On 4/5/2020 at 9:14 AM, keith101 said:

Australia has 5,687 confirmed cases to date and 35 have died , the current mortality rate is 0.62% much lower than Thailand even with well over 4,000 more cases .

neither Australia or Thailand are likely to be true figures. Testing in Australia is ok at 300,000 but it is such a big country I suspect many may have died that were not diagnosed. Thailand however has only tested 25k so they have no idea how many have it or how many have died of it. It is a nasty virus and although we all hope the mortality rate is low we will not know until the end. So for now it would foolish to adjust behaviour based upon a set of data such as this. Be super cautious and stay safe.

[lkv]

12 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Perhaps you didn't understand, a pre-existing condition with Covid-19 is death

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

 

######

Age is a strong risk factor for severe illness, complications, and death.^{1,6,8,10,11,28-31} Among more than 44,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, the case fatality rate was highest among older persons: ≥80 years: 14.8%, 70–79 years: 8.0%, 60–69 years: 3.6%, 50–59 years: 1.3%, 40–49 years: 0.4%, <40 years: 0.2%.^28,32Early U.S. epidemiologic data suggests that the case fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85 years (range 10%–27%), followed by 3%–11% for ages 65–84 years, 1%–3% for ages 55–64 years, and <1% for ages 0–54 years.²⁹

Patients with no reported underlying medical conditions had an overall case fatality of 0.9%, but case fatality was higher for patients with comorbidities: 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, and approximately 6% each for chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, and cancer.³² Heart disease, hypertension, prior stroke, diabetes, chronic lung disease, and chronic kidney disease have all been associated with increased illness severity and adverse outcomes.^{1,6,10,11,28,32}Accounting for differences in age and prevalence of underlying condition, mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States was similar to China.^29,30,33

 

#########

 

So to summarize: 

 

1. Having a preexisting condition is NOT death, 9 out of 10 older people with conditions, but not critical, still make it out alive.

 

2. If you want to minimize risk further, eat healthy and do sport.

 

3. If you want to minimize your risk further, either afford private care in Thailand or go back to your home country once the public system copes with it.

Edited April 6, 2020 by lkv

[sirineou]

Many opinions, based on incomplete data. Are we willing to bet our life on incomplete information? 

   Stay on the safe side. Isolate yourself as best as possible for the next few weeks until there is a treatment that will significantly improve the odds. Read a book , binge on netflix, work on your garden or your wife. 

  Conjecture is fun and serves to keep the mind sharp, but the whatever percentage of dead, I can guarantee you one thing,

They are 100%  dead. 

 

[What a carry on]

4 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

He was just offering you good advice. Unlike in the West where they are verbally and physically abusing Asians, even those that were born there and are citizens. 

Nice straw man.

 

I hope you receive some similar 'advice' by natives in their lands too. Or maybe you aren't Thai and are one of those self-hating white folk you see around nowadays. If so, your wokeness will not save you from such abuse, sorry. I've always liked Thai people (and still do) but my point was that I got racially abused here for the first time ever today. And that farangs should be careful when going outside now. More than ever.

 

He was offering me good advice? My take? He was a pos. All countries have idiots like this. My high tax payments will go towards saving Thai lives. I doubt the muppet that said it to me pays a penny in tax. My wife lost her job due to this pandemic and she and most of her family are now relying on me to feed them until this is over. I'm in a lucky enough position that I will still be working (my school are going 'online' until it's safe for the students to return...so I'm still getting paid in full). Oh, so I'm helping Thais educate their kids too. Anything else? I'd like to think he wouldn't have said it if he'd known all these details, but who cares? He's a pos.

 

Btw, he was also hoarding. Came out with all the 'Good Time' cookies for some bizarre reason. No social distancing for him it seemed.

Edited April 6, 2020 by What a carry on

[sezze]

9 hours ago, Syduan said:

Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10%. ! in 10, what the f..k are you talking about.

Spain : 135k / 13055 death / 355k tested 7600/million -> 9.6%

Italy : 129k / 15887 death / 691k tested 11400/million -> 12.3%

France : 93k / 8000 death / 224k test 3400/million -> 8.6%

Belgium : 20800 / 1632death / 70k tested 7000/million -> 7.8%

Netherlands : 18800 / 1867death  / 75k tested 4400/million-> 9.9%

UK : 47800 / 4934 death / 195k tested 2880 / million -> 10.3%

All these are the nrs from today .

As of today also , Thai nrs ...

1220 / 26 death / 25071 tested 359/million ( no that nr isnt wrong , thats the official nr  )

 

With percentage of the above countries between 7.8% and 12.3% i think my nrs are correct . Also , not being tested enough , true , but the nrs are multiple times smaller in Thailand then in the above countries .

So that was the f..k i was talking about .

[tropo]

On 4/5/2020 at 3:14 PM, keith101 said:

Australia has 5,687 confirmed cases to date and 35 have died , the current mortality rate is 0.62% much lower than Thailand even with well over 4,000 more cases .

As I write this, the mortality rate in Australia is 41/5,797 = 0.71%

 

The difference is not "much lower". The difference is totally irrelevant until you know what percentage of the population has been tested. I would venture to say they have tested a lot more people in Australia.

 

A better conclusion would be that the death rates in Thailand and Australia are both low.

[mindfulness]

With this % that’s seems ron Be lower than seasonal flu. One now only wonders why they don’t use the same positivity and drive in a method to reduce road accident deaths and life debilitating injuries and use some similar methods of strict enforcement of pulling over idiots who don’t use the Thai Highway Code, and busting the 1,000’s and thousands using the electronic devices while driving. Busting for defective lights gee the pigs would be raking it in. 

[Miami007]

On 4/5/2020 at 12:03 PM, sezze said:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

This is mentioned already multiple times , you can look on internet about the different strains around . Apparently , there are now many more strains around also , due to slight mutations . Mutation grade however does appear to be low according to scientists ( which is a good thing for finding long working vaccin ) . They do not have to be appeared at the same time , as mutations happen all the time , same like new virus breakouts happen 365 days a year . Most of the time luckily they are harmless and even if not so harmless , it is 1 person only infected . This time the virus made a few lucky streaks , getting the right mutation in the right place ( busy place , multimillion city ) and having a high spread rate . When it was under control in China , some hospital in Italy made a mistake ( could have happened everywhere and was bound to happen ) to get the secondary outbreak in holiday season in wintersports area . This way it spread easy all over Europe and also to US .

The USA had its first case within a very short time of the first case in China. Europe got its first case much later..

[lkv]

You people might have had it already and not even know it, it's been circulating supposedly way before December last year (when it was first identified).

 

50% of people testing positive in Iceland cases were asymptomatic. It's the only country so far that has tested 5% of the population randomly, unlike the others, that test only cases with symptoms (multiple ones, not just a little fever) / in hospital already / dead already / contact of another confirmed case.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/05/have-i-already-had-coronavirus-how-would-i-know

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Edited April 6, 2020 by lkv

[gk10002000]

Stupid Stupid and Stupid statistic.  It is only based on the known cases.  Unless you test everybody you do NOT know how many had or have the virus.  The real death rate is a fraction of that .97 per cent.  average of 0.97 per cent of total patients

 

  At least they mention it is total patients.  But of course so many did not go for treatment nor had any symptoms. Glad to see they mentioned the underlying conditions.  A large of the infected people pro ably would have suffered if they had regular severe flu symptoms

On 4/5/2020 at 4:01 AM, Jonathan Fairfield said:

The data showed that most of them also carried diabetes (50 per cent of cases), high blood pressure (35 per cent), chronic kidney disease (15 per cent), dyslipidemia (15 per cent), besides heart disease, chronic lung disease, tuberculosis, and cancer.

 

[gk10002000]

7 minutes ago, lkv said:

You people might have had it already and not even know it, it's been circulating supposedly way before December last year (when it was first identified).

 

50% of people testing positive in Iceland cases were asymptomatic. It's the only country so far that has tested 5% of the population randomly, unlike the others, that test only cases with symptoms (multiple ones, not just a little fever) / in hospital already / dead already / contact of another confirmed case.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/05/have-i-already-had-coronavirus-how-would-i-know

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

yes yes and yes.  The mortality rates many countries are quoting are horrible use of statistics and facts and figures.  Gross over reaction that is causing as much suffering as the virus probably will

[lkv]

31 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

Unless you test everybody you do NOT know how many had or have the virus. 

You cannot test everybody. You can test negative today and positive tomorrow, what are you going to do, test the whole population every day?

 

Even for influenza in the US, they had I believe 1 milllion tests for a population of 300 million.

 

The only thing you can do, is do randomised testing in various demographics, and then extrapolate that to get a statistic about the number of cases in the population.

 

I also don't see how an antibody test would work also. I had a flu recently. Was it flu or was it corona? Nobody will know, not even the antibody test.

 

Even if someone wanted to get tested  today in my country for free, you'd have to lie that you are suffocating whilst caughing or similar (multiple symptoms), to get accepted for testing. Little fever and sore throat does not cut it.

 

Unless of course, you do it in the private system and pay for it, but what's the point of doing that? You test negative this week, positive next week.

 

This will carry on for 1-2 years.

Edited April 6, 2020 by lkv

[gk10002000]

18 minutes ago, lkv said:

You cannot test everybody. You can test negative today and positive tomorrow, what are you going to do, test the whole population every day?

 

Even for influenza in the US, they had I believe 1 milllion tests for a population of 300 million.

 

The only thing you can do, is do randomised testing in various demographics, and then extrapolate that to get a statistic about the number of cases in the population.

 

I also don't see how an antibody test would work also. I had a flu recently. Was it flu or was it corona? Nobody will know, not even the antibody test.

 

Even if someone wanted to get tested  today in my country for free, you'd have to lie that you are suffocating whilst caughing or similar (multiple symptoms), to get accepted for testing. Little fever and sore throat does not cut it.

 

Unless of course, you do it in the private system and pay for it, but what's the point of doing that? You test negative this week, positive next week.

 

This will carry on for 1-2 years.

Oh I agree.  The problem is, most people are stupid and the news people tend to not explain the numbers they show.  They just show, death rated 2 % or whatever when that is so untrue.  And then a bunch of so called journalists go and parrot that incorrectly or incompletely.  I think the whole situation was so overblown it is ridiculous.   people are now realizing the death rate is rather low and not worse than any other things that have been around.  Locking down only delays the inevitable.  The so called curve is done.  People will die.  and more will continue to die.  Stop the massive disruption

[lkv]

16 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

people are now realizing the death rate is rather low and not worse than any other things that have been around

Yeah, as if people don't die of heart attack, cancer, or other things nowadays. People die of covid-19.

 

If you have a heart attack in the hospital and you were unfortunate enough to get covid also from the medical staff, you die from covid these days.

 

Millions and millions of deaths from "infectious respiratory diseases" each year, including pneumonia. Even a flu can kill you if your immunity is low.

 

But yes, supposedly this has the R0 higher, so more infectious = more cases = more deaths.

 

They just need some time to catch up with the antivirals, equipment, ventilators, where there is shortage worldwide for the time being.

 

Austria is lifting restrictions gradually starting next week, malls and shops 1 May, restaurants 15 May, large gatherings 30 June estimated.

Edited April 6, 2020 by lkv

[UbonThani]

8 minutes ago, lkv said:

Yeah, as if people don't die of heart attack, cancer, or other things nowadays. People die of covid-19.

 

If you have a heart attack in the hospital and you were unfortunate enough to get covid also from the medical staff, you die from covid these days.

 

Millions and millions of deaths from "infectious respiratory diseases" each year, including pneumonia. Even a flu can kill you if your immunity is low.

 

But yes, supposedly this has the R0 higher, so more infectious = more cases = more deaths.

 

They just need some time to catch up with the antivirals, equipment, ventilators, where there is shortage worldwide for the time being.

 

Austria is lifting restrictions gradually starting next week, malls and shops 1 May, restaurants 15 May, large gatherings 30 June estimated.

These measures sound good. Sensible staggered opening.

[Number 6]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:20 PM, exparte said:

The death rate due to economic disparity caused from the loss of employment will surpass the Total Number of confirmed Covid-19 cases. There are 10 Mill people not covered by any government safety net.

That's why troops already in the streets 10-4. Just an order and signature to bring martial law into play 24/7. Quite convenient for this shaky government as well. Funny that.

[4MyEgo]

12 hours ago, lkv said:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

 

######

Age is a strong risk factor for severe illness, complications, and death.^{1,6,8,10,11,28-31} Among more than 44,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China, the case fatality rate was highest among older persons: ≥80 years: 14.8%, 70–79 years: 8.0%, 60–69 years: 3.6%, 50–59 years: 1.3%, 40–49 years: 0.4%, <40 years: 0.2%.^28,32Early U.S. epidemiologic data suggests that the case fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85 years (range 10%–27%), followed by 3%–11% for ages 65–84 years, 1%–3% for ages 55–64 years, and <1% for ages 0–54 years.²⁹

Patients with no reported underlying medical conditions had an overall case fatality of 0.9%, but case fatality was higher for patients with comorbidities: 10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, and approximately 6% each for chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, and cancer.³² Heart disease, hypertension, prior stroke, diabetes, chronic lung disease, and chronic kidney disease have all been associated with increased illness severity and adverse outcomes.^{1,6,10,11,28,32}Accounting for differences in age and prevalence of underlying condition, mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States was similar to China.^29,30,33

 

#########

 

So to summarize: 

 

1. Having a preexisting condition is NOT death, 9 out of 10 older people with conditions, but not critical, still make it out alive.

 

2. If you want to minimize risk further, eat healthy and do sport.

 

3. If you want to minimize your risk further, either afford private care in Thailand or go back to your home country once the public system copes with it.

Thanks for that.

 

2. I do eat healthy, and do exercise, e.g. cardio and light weight training.

 

3. I do have private health care here in Thailand which also covers my preexisting condition for a stent 2008, noting the little extra I pay on my policy for the preexisting condition is for (hypertension and cholesterol).

 

So this hypercondriac can take a sigh of fresh air now, cough, cough.

[SupermarineS6B]

3 hours ago, Number 6 said:

That's why troops already in the streets 10-4. Just an order and signature to bring martial law into play 24/7. Quite convenient for this shaky government as well. Funny that.

Very shaky, they would of been fighting by now if it wasn't for the virus....... Very handy for them..... 

[SupermarineS6B]

This is from another forum, this nationalistic attitude concerns me more than the virus because we all know how the powers that be and the locals like to find someone to blame........ 

 

The version of this story published by a doctor at the Vachira tells a different tale. 

 

He clearly stated that the guy died from the injuries sustained in the accident. 

 

But he also lamented about bad farangs coming to Thailand, not mentioning having been to a high risk country (Malaysia) or a high risk area (Bangla Road) and therefore putting doctors and nurses at risk of contracting the virus. 
I mean this guy broke his neck, even if he was still able to speak, Covid probably wasn`t very high on his list of priorities.

 

Anyway, story is currently going viral on the Thai Phuket FB pages and the overwhelming tenor is:
The doctors should have left the tourist to die in the first place. And now lets send all of these bloody farangs back to their own countries... Thailand for Thais...

We ain`t getting more popular here...

[gk10002000]

4 hours ago, lkv said:

Yeah, as if people don't die of heart attack, cancer, or other things nowadays. People die of covid-19.

 

If you have a heart attack in the hospital and you were unfortunate enough to get covid also from the medical staff, you die from covid these days.

 

Millions and millions of deaths from "infectious respiratory diseases" each year, including pneumonia. Even a flu can kill you if your immunity is low.

 

But yes, supposedly this has the R0 higher, so more infectious = more cases = more deaths.

 

They just need some time to catch up with the antivirals, equipment, ventilators, where there is shortage worldwide for the time being.

 

Austria is lifting restrictions gradually starting next week, malls and shops 1 May, restaurants 15 May, large gatherings 30 June estimated.

Yes and do not underestimate the power of insurance claims and legal actions.  If death certificate says COVID 19, I am sure that could make it possible for more things than just saying respiratory failure.  Sometimes they use the word complications, such as when HIV patients get severe infections or pneumonia and that just wears them down and the heart gives out. 

 

  I am sure tons of lawyers are waiting in the wings and discussing what to do.  If a company or facility did not shut down and then another worker got sick...?  For example here at L3 Harris, they kept the plant open after sending out ambiguous email naming no names but saying 2 people had tested positive.  It is not that big a building, so it is likely that more than just the 3 or 4 people in adjacent cubicles were near the person.  I think the company opened themselves up to liabilities by not telling all the employees in the building who the person is.  We probably passed by him in the common corridor, in the cafeteria which they kept open etc.  Keeping the Defense work going is probably not going to get them in trouble because the company followed the guidance from the DOD as we are part of the Defense Industrial Base, but not telling people who was sick that they almost certainly came in contact with is to me a different story.  I would not be surprised if similar types of lawsuits are in the wings.

[SupermarineS6B]

Perspective...........

[RocketDog]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:20 PM, exparte said:

The death rate due to economic disparity caused from the loss of employment will surpass the Total Number of confirmed Covid-19 cases. There are 10 Mill people not covered by any government safety net.

You  must be tacitly assuming they would die from starvation or exposure? Seems unlikely to me. 

Suicide? Hmmmm. I doubt it. 

Hell, it's even difficult to die on the roads now unless it's DIY. 

Please expand your hypothesis. 

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

Perspective...........

Yes, perspective:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Gone almost 4x since the 25th March in your infographic. That's in two weeks. How about the others, alcohol deaths increasing exponentially lately?

[Peterw42]

3 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

Perspective...........

What perspective ?, its comparing apples with oranges. Covid virus deaths are increasing exponentially, everything else on the list increases at a small linear rate year on year. Covid death are doubling every 7 days, nothing else on the list is.

Seven items on the list are not contagious, you cant catch a road accident or cancer etc.

At the current world growth rate, Thailand Covid numbers will catch up to world Traffic accidents in 14 days, and catch up to Cancer 3-4 days later.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Peterw42

[ParkerN]

10 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

This is from another forum, this nationalistic attitude concerns me more than the virus because we all know how the powers that be and the locals like to find someone to blame........ 

 

The version of this story published by a doctor at the Vachira tells a different tale. 

 

He clearly stated that the guy died from the injuries sustained in the accident. 

 

But he also lamented about bad farangs coming to Thailand, not mentioning having been to a high risk country (Malaysia) or a high risk area (Bangla Road) and therefore putting doctors and nurses at risk of contracting the virus. 
I mean this guy broke his neck, even if he was still able to speak, Covid probably wasn`t very high on his list of priorities.

 

Anyway, story is currently going viral on the Thai Phuket FB pages and the overwhelming tenor is:
The doctors should have left the tourist to die in the first place. And now lets send all of these bloody farangs back to their own countries... Thailand for Thais...

We ain`t getting more popular here...

Indeed not. Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

 

But consider this. If all fangs left Thailand tomorrow, what would the Thais do for money? How would they eat? And how quickly would CP close down?

[Dustdevil]

On 4/5/2020 at 10:55 PM, Syduan said:

Spain / Italy / France / Belgium / Netherlands / UK / ...  now around 10%. ! in 10, what the f..k are you talking about.

It's certainly reported that the mortality rate among confirmed cases in Spain is 10%.

[lkv]

1 hour ago, Dustdevil said:

It's certainly reported that the mortality rate among confirmed cases in Spain is 10%.

Because confirmed cases = you call the ambulance to pick you up from your home and take you to the hospital. Once you get to the hospital, they test you for covid also. Had we not known about covid19, you would be diagnosed with pneumonia. (That's why we need ventilators). Most people tested have passed away in 1-2 days, indicating they got to the hospital in a very bad shape already.

 

I believe the mortality rate for pneumonia for hospitalised cases is also in the region of 10-15%, but I will try to look for data.

 

It is to be noted that, if you were to test random people (and not only the ones arriving with an ambulance in the hospital), only a small part of the people testing positive for covid-19 would develop pneumonia, most cases will be asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, treatable at home with Panadol etc.

 

All this would suggest that a large number of people are infected and not confirmed.

Edited April 7, 2020 by lkv

[sezze]

14 minutes ago, lkv said:

Because confirmed cases = you call the ambulance to pick you up from your home and take you to the hospital. Once you get to the hospital, they test you for covid also. Had we not known about covid19, you would be diagnosed with pneumonia. (That's why we need ventilators). Most people tested have passed away in 1-2 days, indicating they got to the hospital in a very bad shape already.

 

I believe the mortality rate for pneumonia for hospitalised cases is also in the region of 10-15%, but I will try to look for data.

 

It is to be noted that, if you were to test random people (and not only the ones arriving with an ambulance in the hospital), only a small part of the people testing positive for covid-19 would develop pneumonia, most cases will be asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, treatable at home with Panadol etc.

 

All this would suggest that a large number of people are infected and not confirmed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20

WHO states death rate on 3-3-20 at 3.4% . This includes all cases , not only the ones in hospital , and not only the death counted in hospitals confirmed .

As for flu , estimated death rate is less then 0.1% .

If anybody got better nrs then WHO states , feel free to inform over here ( and do send in your study/paper to WHO ) .

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, sezze said:

If anybody got better nrs then WHO states , feel free to inform over here ( and do send in your study/paper to WHO ) .

WHO is an information aggregator, not a research agency. You'll find better peer reviewed studies in Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/

 

Obviously all of it lagging weeks behind because peer review takes time.