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Thailand reports 51 new coronavirus cases, three more deaths

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1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, would not make much of a blip - yet.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.png

 

We are now heading to the "Lockdown" part of it. I do think the warm weather does play a role in reducing R0,  but all that does is to slow it down, not to stop it. Does flatten the curve, though.

Thanks for a very informative and constructive series of posts using reliable sources of information.

Edited by Trip Hop

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Let's have sweepstake on tomorrow's numbers!

 

I am going for 39 🤔😉😂

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I truly want to believe the figures as many of us do but with little transparency on testing in Thailand then doubts have to emerge. My main concern being that if Thailand was conducting adequate testing numbers then they would be shouting about it and publishing them, because they're not then you can only assume the testing is completely inadequate to reflect the true situation.

 

Both worldometers.org and ourworldindata.org are cited by 100's of peer reviewed papers and quoted in countless media articles from the BBC and other established news outlets. On that basis I personally will continue to use them as the most credible source currently available for the Thai testing numbers. Here's a quote on how they come to those numbers:

 

"The Thailand Department of Disease Control issues daily situation reports which detail the status of confirmed cases, deaths and people being assessed. They report figures as ‘persons under investigation’ (PUI). PUI is the sum of confirmed cases, negatively tested people the number of people pending test results. All three figures are reported individually from 3rd March onwards. We present figures excluding people pending test results". https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

 

So with those caveats here's the last two days of testing, I'll probably update this daily for my own information:

 

 

 

 

Daily tests 6 april.png

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3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

we can at least hope for some sense of normality to return, as opposed to things getting tighter.

As a hairdresser friend of mine keeps saying, shes been ordered closed while every other of the 15 shops in her parade are allowed open as normal, these shops are full of customers, open from morning to night with no restrictions. Customers come and go, no social distancing, no gel at the doors nothing.

While she sits at home wondering why she has to suffer while others still make money. Just to rub salt into the wound the landlord phoned her at the beginning of this month, just to let her know he'd be round to collect the shop rent as normal!

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9 minutes ago, Trip Hop said:

Thanks for a very informative and constructive series of posts using reliable sources of information.

I do try to share what I've first put through my paranoia filter. I forgot to link to the original source of that graph, without Tomas Pueyo's commentary: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

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What is the projected curve for Thailand looking like?

 

Presumably it will peak 21 days after Songkran now that most of the possibly infected Thais have returned from overseas.

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9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"The Thailand Department of Disease Control issues daily situation reports which detail the status of confirmed cases, deaths and people being assessed. They report figures as ‘persons under investigation’ (PUI). PUI is the sum of confirmed cases, negatively tested people the number of people pending test results. All three figures are reported individually from 3rd March onwards. We present figures excluding people pending test results". https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

PUI is "Persons Under Investigation", i.e. those that have matched the criteria here:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

Capture.JPG.191439e6fb9e40fd0709c1e231bead33.JPG

 

It's a long way from there to actual confirmation. MoPH stopped publishing the number of pending results and deleted their earlier numbers from existing reports after there was a suspicious drop of thousands from the pending test queue: 

 

 

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I really hope that these numbers are accurate and even if they are not that a trend can be monitored.

 

Yesterday as I left to go on my bike to the Supermarket the Condo Security were trying to tell me that Thai TV was reporting a 24 hour Curfew from yesterday. I stood in front of them and googled it to find no mention whatsoever. They were clearly unhappy as I went out and kept saying "Curfew, Curfew".

 

Today we are told that the Regional Governors are being told to prepare for a 24-hour Curfew, whatever that actually means in reality. I suspect, like elsewhere the thumb screws are being tightened to make sure we all behave. I am OK with that. I am not OK with a total lock-down with a death rate of 50 (in their own words) of which only around 25 are from the general public.

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20 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Daily tests 6 april.png

The source for those daily tests figures? Roser's ourworldindata shows no data for Thailand since 31. March.

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4 hours ago, Guderian said:

Based on even the steady +/- 100 new cases per day figure, there wasn't much justification for the latest threats to ramp up the curfew and various other measures, if we get a few days at the 50 level then there'll be even less. I'm guessing the authorities are in headless chicken mode, as they are in a number of countries, and simply want to be seen to be doing something, anything. As somebody said recently in the UK government, they're basically damned whatever they do. If they turn the screws further on self-isolation then they'll be accused of going overboard if it works and numbers start to decline, while they'll also be accused of not doing enough if it doesn't work and numbers continue to increase. Who'd want to be a politician at the moment?

Politicians around the globe just have to ask the "TVF experts" who are specialists in every field.
One thing i learned during this COVID-19 period: There are much more stupid and selfish people on this planet than i ever thought.

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1 hour ago, Estrada said:

Songkran was postponed indefinitely,  to stop the mass exodus over Songkran, so that will not happen.

 

So the Thai new year holidays are cancelled as well?When did that happen?I thought it was just organised Songkran events where cancelled.Interesting to see if the hols are not cancelled and how the Thai population react to being told they can't go home for the holidays to visit family.

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Just now, 0815 said:

Politicians around the globe just have to ask the "TVF experts" who are specialists in every field.
One thing i learned during this COVID-19 period: There are much more stupid and selfish people on this planet than i ever thought.

Wow, you actually gave people credit before for not being selfish before this pandemic.  I am glad there was someone who did.  My 32 years in Law Enforcement, showed me that no one was above being stupid, even myself.

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2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So the Thai new year holidays are cancelled as well?When did that happen?I thought it was just organised Songkran events where cancelled.Interesting to see if the hols are not cancelled and how the Thai population react to being told they can't go home for the holidays to visit family.

One question, where the heck have you been hiding for the past few weeks to not see that Songkran was canceled awhile back.  Of course people will still do what they want in this country so nothing amazes me anymore.  When I see someone doing something they should not be doing, and the laws are broken daily I just shake my head.

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I would not be surprised to see a 24 hr curfew just over songkran

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