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Brunolem

Some numbers to put things into perspective

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4 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie.
98% of people with Covid-19 recover.
which leaves 2% of people who die from it.
(until then, am I good?)
In Italy and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.
People who stopped working a long time ago.

So I cannot understand why we are shutting down countries for a ridiculously low number of people who will die from this virus.
France did not stop working in 1969 when in the month of December alone 25,000 people died from the flu.
Politics  sacrifice 99.9% of workers who would rather go to work than mop up in isolation completely useless at home.

2% of Italy is more than a million people. It's killing much more than 2% of the people who have it in Italy and they are the country of the worst affected who have tested the most. We should sacrifice them? When you look at the graphs I have posted showing the increases in cases and deaths, what do you think the answer is? I'm genuinely curious.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Long after sars cov 2 dies out and herd immunity makes it a thing of the past the flu will carry on killing 400,000 every year without a single tear being shed by those that say "but this is not the flu it's much worse".

The influenza viruses, but also this new coronavirus family has great potential. Let's not forget how deadly SARS was. Then MERS. Now SARS Cov2. We will have this new coronavirus family maybe coming with new siblings. In any event the clear and present danger these viruses represent will not be underestimated going forward.

 

Yes, maybe vaccines will come that are highly effective and banish all these viruses. But maybe not.

 

In which case, the danger of viruses will increase. 

 

Cue massive spending on health care, regular lockdowns, economic downtime. More focus on viruses, less spending and focus on other illnesses. And humans have a million illnesses they can die from.

 

Anyway, enjoy your dinner.

 

 

Edited by Logosone
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8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

A deeper analysis shows that these cases and deaths are concentrated in a small number of countries, as explained in the opening post.

 

If these 8 countries were all in Africa, for example, nobody would care, but because they are part of the top economies of the world, it makes headlines...for good reasons by the way, because these same countries are well on the way to destroy the world's economy...

Right, but other countries are naturally fearful because the disease could rip through their populations too. Saying these numbers put things into perspective and then people using them to suggest governments are overreacting is wrong, governments are not reacting to the raw numbers of cases/deaths... they are reacting to the increases.

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26 minutes ago, chessman said:

Do you think these graphs are scaremongering and manipulation? I'm genuinely curious

Untitled.jpg

 

About 0.5% mortality rate, no they are realistic... 

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8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Italy has a very special way of counting the deaths by coronavirus, as has been explained in a number of articles.

 

In short, anyone who dies, having the coronavirus, is counted as killed by the virus, never mind if he or she was in a coma before being infected, or in terminal cancer, or victim of a stroke, or a heart failure, you name it...

Right, It's not going to be the 11%+ mortality rate that it shows now. It could still be way over 2% in Italy though... That's a lot of people.

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1 minute ago, chessman said:

Right, It's not going to be the 11%+ mortality rate that it shows now. It could still be way over 2% in Italy though... That's a lot of people.

Sure is, but keep in mind that the average patient killed by the virus in Italy is about 80 years old...

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24 minutes ago, chessman said:

2% of Italy is more than a million people.

If the 60 million Italians are contaminated, it will be counted,

never forgetting that it will be 1 million people aged at least 80 years, so already at the end of life for the vast majority of them .

It will not affect the children or the lifeblood of the country.

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7 hours ago, xylophone said:

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have an slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

It doesn't work that way but thanks for playing.

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18 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What I think when I look at these graphs (which I have done several times a day) is that there are large numbers of untested positives that will bring the death rates down quite considerably and that with antibody testing which is likely to follow will give us a clearer picture of this outbreak.What that picture is remains to be seen as I believe it's way to early just yet to draw any conclusions about the severity of this outbreak.I also think that as long as this virus doesn't mutate the same way the flu viruses do then this is expected (by me) to be a one off event as I've alluded in my post,and that in the long run the flu will end up being more severe than this current outbreak of Sars Cov 2 virus.That's what I think and that's my guess and I will wait and see if I'm proved right or wrong.So do you agree?Is it too early to say?

I think there are a large number of untested positives, I also think there are a large number of covid deaths going unreported. I read an article that said that there were 40% more funerals in Jakarta in March than any other month since records began. I have also read articles that have looked at activity in Wuhan crematoriums and made estimates of the number of deaths that are 10 times + higher than the official Chinese figures. I am optimistic that countries like Spain and Italy have turned the corner now and the cases and deaths will continue to go down. I think this is happening because of the strict measures.

 

I completely agree that testing is really important, people keep talking about vaccines being the only way but when they have cheap and effective point-of-care tests (antibody or otherwise) then they will be able to do the kind of aggressive contact tracing that they did in South Korea and that will really help. They should have good tests a long time before they have a vaccine (if they ever manage to get a vaccine)

 

I hope that in the end it will be the equivalent (or lower) in terms of deaths than a really bad flu year, but if it does then it will be because of the social distancing measures put in place. Governments can't control the mortality rate but they could control the R0 rate and we can see this beginning to work.

 

 

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