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Brunolem

Some numbers to put things into perspective

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1 minute ago, Brunolem said:

The doctors who have access to the top politicians are not the top of the crop, and many among the latter disagree with the former (I opened a thread about this last week). 

 

For example, Pr Raoult is against the lock down/stay at home, and recommend the use of chloroquine, which is rejected by the French government and its medical advisors. 

 

 

Yes, i pretty much agree with Mr. Raoult view of things, unfortunately he is in the minority.

There is much disagreement among scientists, but that's rarely highlighted by the mainstream media.

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9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Where? 

 

Certainly not here in Thailand... I went to Ubon today for some shopping... the city is asleep... there is maybe 25% of the usual activity. 

 

In Europe, satellite pictures show that most of the atmospheric pollution has disappeared, which wouldn't be the case if the industry was working at 80%.

 

In the US, Ford and GM have closed all their factories, which means that all their suppliers have done the same... Boeing has also stopped production... Las Vegas is dead... 

According to Fitch Ratings. See here https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/deep-global-recession-in-2020-as-coronavirus-crisis-escalates-02-04-2020

 

I quote "The lockdown policies being implemented to control the spread of the virus are having instantaneous and dramatic effects on daily economic activity. Nationwide lockdowns look to be reducing daily activity by about 20% from normal levels"

 

Thailand will probably be more than 20% because of tourism but most of Ubon's economic activity would not be taking place in its shops.

 

If you look at their GDP forecasts they are bad, but the economy is not stopping.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Of course and I fully support measures restricting movements between countries.

 

But, after about 3 months, it is becoming clear that certain populations (caucasians) are more at risk than others.

 

It also appears that the climate is playing a role, with much less cases in hot countries than in cooler ones.

 

Thus, each country should play according to the cards it holds, rather than to the cards held by others...

Not just caucasians.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-deaths-black-community-racism-tests-chicago-lori-lightfoot-a9451441.html

 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, chessman said:

This seems to be over simplifying things. He had promising results in a very small trial. When the trial was repeated in a more systematic way the results were disappointing. Or are the media lying about this too?

He is not making any trial, he treats patients as they come, and as of last week, he had successfully treated over a thousand with chloroquine and antibiotics.

 

This method is now being followed in many places, starting with the US, with the support of Trump...

 

Edited by Brunolem
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19 hours ago, xylophone said:

Ah numbers.............and just yesterday I was talking to a friend on the phone and trying to put into perspective the chances of catching and then dying from Covid here.

 

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have an slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

 

There are loads of figures out there about people who have contracted the virus and the percentage that have died as a direct result (or as near as can be ascertained) but nowhere have I found that my chance of dying of it here, and by that I mean catching it and then dying from it, are...... what?? 

Perhaps you could explain this theory of yours to Borris Johnson?

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20 hours ago, Brunolem said:

As of now, there are 1,346,566 cases worldwide, with 74,697 deaths.

You do not know that there were 1,346,566 cases.  That number only means there are that many known that tested positive presumably.  Millions of other people did not report, or had no or few symptoms, etc. but no doubt had or even have the virus. 

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9 hours ago, chessman said:

This seems to be over simplifying things. He had promising results in a very small trial. When the trial was repeated in a more systematic way the results were disappointing. Or are the media lying about this too?

Below is another example.

 

The main "problem" with this treatment is that it costs peanuts, and the pharmaceutical industry, very active in political circles, would rather make a ton of money with new, expensive treatments.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/while-left-continues-pan-trump-touted-treatment-another-doctor-reports-dramatic-improvement

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10 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

You do not know that there were 1,346,566 cases.  That number only means there are that many known that tested positive presumably.  Millions of other people did not report, or had no or few symptoms, etc. but no doubt had or even have the virus. 

We have to work with the numbers we are given.

 

Personally, I think that the number of infected is far larger, and has been for some time, which would be good because it would reduce the apparent mortality rate.

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9 hours ago, chessman said:

 

it is of course impossible to know but I think it is likely that letting the virus infect (almost) everyone would be much worse for the economy, especially in the medium and long term.

The way that most countries waited for community spread to be established before implementing measures indicates incompetence or neglect or both.

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6 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

We have to work with the numbers we are given.

Says who?And I don't mean the World Health Organisation or do I?Perhaps I mean both when I think about it.

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The major flaws with this analysis and numbers are assumptions  all countries have same capabilities in gathering real world data, and that those stats released by governments taken from "real data" are true. 

If those criteria are met, then perhaps conclusions drawn could be accurate

If not, then conclusions are just guessing

Garbage in garbage out

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20 hours ago, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

And why should we believe the published figure based on government truths to date and the almost guaranteed lack of competent testing?

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1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

He is not making any trial, he treats patients as they come, and as of last week, he had successfully treated over a thousand with chloroquine and antibiotics.

 

This method is now being followed in many places, starting with the US, with the support of Trump...

He did a small study (trial), someone spoke about that study on Fox news and Trump was watching and started talking about it. That study failed to meet the basic standards of medical trials but because it showed promise then further studies started and some doctors have been using it.  Results have been mixed.

You can read all about it here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/hydroxychloroquine-trump-coronavirus-drug

 

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say that the cure is already here but pharmacutical companies are blocking it because they want more more money.

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