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Brunolem

Some numbers to put things into perspective

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41 minutes ago, Emdog said:

The major flaws with this analysis and numbers are assumptions  all countries have same capabilities in gathering real world data, and that those stats released by governments taken from "real data" are true. 

If those criteria are met, then perhaps conclusions drawn could be accurate

If not, then conclusions are just guessing

Garbage in garbage out

The numbers are obviously not exact, but the proportions are.

 

It is clear that a few countries make for the bulk of the cases.

 

And it is ridiculous to assume, like many do, that only a handful of governments are telling the truth, while all the others are hiding their real numbers.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

There is the economy, and then there is the productive economy.

 

In many countries, notably in the West, the non productive public (paper pushers) sector represents a large part of the economy, more than 50% of it in France, for example.

 

And this part keeps on running...as well as agriculture.

 

Also, economists cannot calculate the economic activity in real time...they need data, which takes time to come, and so this 80% figure is probably weeks old.

Fitch is a huge financial services company that countries around the world use to judge risk with credit. Their job is to analyze the economy. They are predicting that worldwide GDP will fall by 1.9% in 2020. That will be bad BUT IT IS NOT THE ECONOMY STOPPING. I think their judgement carries a little bit more weight than your distinctions between economies and productive economies and your observations about how quiet Ubon is.

Edited by chessman

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21 hours ago, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

And I know of a case that is in hospital that does not show on the report map and a number in another hospital that is about 5 times higher than the number given. So are these the exceptions? I think they are probably not.

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2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

There is the economy, and then there is the productive economy.

 

In many countries, notably in the West, the non productive public (paper pushers) sector represents a large part of the economy, more than 50% of it in France, for example.

 

And this part keeps on running...as well as agriculture.

 

Also, economists cannot calculate the economic activity in real time...they need data, which takes time to come, and so this 80% figure is probably weeks old.

 

James Bullard, from the US Federal Reserve, predicted a 50% GDP fall for the second quarter.

 

When it's all said and done, the economy depends on consumers, and it cannot run at 80% when consumers are locked at home...

80% of the UK GDP comes from financials. That area is hardly affected. The 'visible' producers like factories, shops etc are running at well under 50% so the total drop is more like 10%.

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The probability of dying from the virus, for all individuals, using the 15,000 dead out of a population of 59 million in Italy is 0.002%.

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As of today Italy has tested 12,495 persons per 1 million population.  Thailand has tested 1030 per 1 million population according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.  Thats probably the most important piece of information missing from this article and speaks volumes.

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according to recent news, countries that have universal vaccination policies for tuberculosis (BCG vaccine) would be less affected by covid-19. This is the case for most countries in Asia. Most countries in Europe, and also US, do not universally vaccinate for TB, as TB is considered not a big threat there -- google 'BCG and Corona' for more info

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2 hours ago, Nip said:

Perhaps you could explain this theory of yours to Borris Johnson?

It was not a theory, just a request for another set of stats........and do you mean Boris Johnson?

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19 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

I wonder why all this end of the world cinema. I wonder what is really playing out there

maybe you just ate some bad seafood? 

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just check deaths of last year march (any country) with now ...

 

hardly a big dent ...

 

people die of many causes 

 

hospitals don't want to give up their equipment, so they might up the CORONA as this is getting funds

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15 hours ago, chessman said:

I am not scared of the current numbers. I am scared of the graphs that show the increase in cases and deaths. You can't look at those and say 'nothing to see here, let's ignore it'.

Untitled.jpg

 

You see an increase in cases and deaths, I just see an increase in testing !!

 

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16 hours ago, Brunolem said:

From the official numbers, the odds are less than one in a million...

source please

 

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42 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

maybe you just ate some bad seafood? 

If you follow my posts carefully you would know that I never eat Thai seafood

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