Thailand reports sharp fall in new COVID-19 cases

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, papao123 said:

So another 3 medical staff. What the f*** is happening? yesterday 13 and today 3. 

It's an indication of SARS-CoV-2 being present at the hospitals. 

[rtco]

Just now, DrTuner said:

Might have something to do with this being Thai Visa Forum and people living in Thailand.

Btw the "finger point" reference was a bit of sarcasm which may have gone unnoticed 

 

[JCP108]

26 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

oh dear, what does that tell everyone?

 

Some on here will likely see that as good news. Lower numbers...some actually at zero.

[Thailand]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

The third group of five must've popped up at the hospital with severe pneumonia:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

 

No such luck if you don't fit any of the criteria, you'll remain untested.

No updates since 16th February?

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, BobbyL said:

It certainly seems that some of the scientific research released recently around temperature and humidity restricting the spread is true. 

I would like to believe that also but, my understanding of germs, viruses and other such nasties, is that hot and humid helps them multiply. ????

[Alidiver]

2 hours ago, pmh2009 said:

Look unless you have tested everyone or at least tried...like Germany - who tests 500K per week.. whatever data or numbers you have and say  are irrelevant!!! Let say you only test 3 million out of a population of 69 million --- what is the percentage of that is correct???? Just because the infected cases go down does not mean that the VIRUS is dissipating or clearing up!!!!!!

Thailand have tested roughly 1 in every 2700 of the population
A total of 25,000 tests
or

359/1,000,000

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[DrTuner]

8 minutes ago, Thailand said:

No updates since 16th February?

None that I have found. The criteria clearly matches the daily reports, would you agree?

 

I'll take a looksee at the current docs: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/guidelines.php

 

EDIT: found one from March: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_PUIdefinition.pdf

 

They seem to have added '4) Unidentified cause' to 'Scenario 3 Hospital-based surveillance: Patient with pneumonia'

 

That's a bit better, doesn't have to be severe.

Edited April 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[LukKrueng]

2 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

The 1% have seen their revenues being affected more than they imagined, so time to reverse the figures and get the money train rolling once more...

If it was only the general population suffering financial hardships, there would be no need to relax the control but.....

Maybe I'm just being cynical ??

Yes, I think you are. This virus has proved already it hits everyone. It doesn't care if you're rich or poor, a villager with no connection to anyone or the prince of Wales / prime minister of the great UK 

[Jimbo2014]

It should also be noted that Thailand has one of the lowest per capita test rates in the world and that existing tests have a 20-30% false negative rate.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[DrTuner]

Oh look what I found ..

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

Quote

2. Probable case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by
PCR from one (1) reference laboratory, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.
3. Confirmed case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by
PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

4. Asymptomatic case is defined as a person who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture, but has
shown no signs and symptoms.

 

They are not even counting asymptomatics as confirmed, even if they get positive RT-PCR results. That's plain old dishonesty. Number of probable cases are not disclosed at all.

Edited April 7, 2020 by DrTuner

[pattayamick]

I doubt the figures. However if hospitals were filling up and people dying in great numbers, it would be all over social media. This is not happening, so hopefully Thailand is not hurt that bad. 

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

As someone with training in statistics, reacting to a single data point is not a good idea. When the data trends down for another 6 days in a row, then I'll start getting excited. We are far from out of the woods, it only takes one irresponsible idiot to start the spread again.

"it only takes one irresponsible idiot to start the spread again"..... And how far does one have to go, to find one irresponsible idiot it this country of 70,000,000?

[bannork]

2 minutes ago, Surasak said:

"it only takes one irresponsible idiot to start the spread again"..... And how far does one have to go, to find one irresponsible idiot it this country of 70,000,000?

I'm sure TV can offer up a few if you do some trawling.

[Gulfsailor]

12 minutes ago, Surasak said:

I would like to believe that also but, my understanding of germs, viruses and other such nasties, is that hot and humid helps them multiply. ????

You’re understanding is then flawed. 

In general virusses don’t survive long in high temperatures and humidity. From a recent research paper published in the Lancet on specifically Sars-Cov2. 

 

 

Rhis is is how long the fortified virus stays ‘alive’ out in the open. In natural conditions these times would be lower. This explains why so many people got infected in areas where the temperature was just over freezing. Any virus on a railing would stay viable for weeks, whereas in the sun in Thailand it would be dead within minutes. So the only places to get infected in Thailand are inside air conditioned areas, or by directly being coughed or breathed into ones face by an infected person. 

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, Gulfsailor said:

You’re understanding is then flawed. 

In general virusses don’t survive long in high temperatures and humidity. From a recent research paper published in the Lancet on specifically Sars-Cov2. 

 

 

 whereas in the sun in Thailand it would be dead within minutes. So the only places to get infected in Thailand are inside air conditioned areas, or by directly being coughed or breathed into ones face by an infected person. 

In the shade 37 degrees is what Thailand often has. That column shows up to one day. Plenty of opportunities to transfer. Care to link the actual Lancet article?

[AlQaholic]

There where still more than 30,000 tourists arriving to Thailand in the month of March, Chinese by far the most.

 

https://www.atta.or.th/statistics-international-tourists-arriving-in-thailand-as-of-as-of-20-march-2020/

 

If we count Jan. - March 2020, there where a total of about 227,000 Chinese tourists arriving.

[ronaldo0]

TAT anything to do with these figures ?
We know how good they are at maths and stats ! ????

[DrTuner]

13 minutes ago, Jimbo2014 said:

It should also be noted that Thailand has one of the lowest per capita test rates in the world and that existing tests have a 20-30% false negative rate.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And also note worldometers uses the PUI count, not the number of tested, which is not available at all. Their source is probably https://data.go.th/en/dataset/covid-19-daily , the source of which is MoPH.

[tifino]

33 minutes ago, Alidiver said:

3 hours ago, hydraides said:

That's because they are testing hardly anyone. How many thai's can splash out on 5000 baht test?

 

That's a whole month salary compensation from the government

My Thai neighbour had a sore throat for two weeks and I suggested it was a virus as the antibiotics had not cured it, so she got tested. It cost her 8,500. For a Farang it's 17,000.
The result was negative

still... it is crazy why the high costs? - for a sample/tesat procedure now equating to an assembly line of Model T Fords...

[Thailand]

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Oh look what I found ..

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

They are not even counting asymptomatics as confirmed, even if they get positive RT-PCR results. That's plain old dishonesty. Number of probable cases are not disclosed at all.

I guess the omissions come as no surprise to anybody.

[Gulfsailor]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

In the shade 37 degrees is what Thailand often has. That column shows up to one day. Plenty of opportunities to transfer. Care to link the actual Lancet article?

In the test the virus is first incubated for 14 days and underwent a treatment to make it stronger. So the likely times in the real world are shorter. 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30003-3/fulltext

[TKDfella]

I would hope it's true but...

If it is true then the NEXT BREAKING NEWS will be TAT reports hotel reservations for May & June up by 80% ha.

Edited April 7, 2020 by TKDfella

[tifino]

and what's sad is that if someone suffers it, and eventually self-recovers...

and goes home and announces he survived the virus

 - he could be arrested/fined? for spreading so called fake news!

[papao123]

19 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Oh look what I found ..

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

They are not even counting asymptomatics as confirmed, even if they get positive RT-PCR results. That's plain old dishonesty. Number of probable cases are not disclosed at all.

That is exactly what china does. we are on the way to become china, dont worry

[vermin on arrival]

2 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

Even if the warmer Southeast Asian climate inhibits the spread of the virus, which similarly low infection rates in Indonesia and the Philippines might support, it is odd that the mortality rate and absolute number of deaths is so much less than those two countries. Malaysia also has a significantly higher number of cases per capita which is probably explained by more widespread testing.

 

The coming rainy season could be a risk factor, as that is traditionally the flu season in Thailand.

Indonesia announces biggest daily rise in COVID-19 cases, 24 doctors now dead - CNA If this article is correct then not really

[Redline]

3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Another day of good news, bringing the likelihood of a full on curfew even less likely. We all know that way more testing would be helpful, but I am yet to hear of a single report of masses of sick and dying crowding at the hospitals. It does seem that Thailand is being most fortunate and that the virus here is unlikely to go crazy like in Europe and the US.

I believe the blazing heat is helping out-still don’t believe the numbers though 

[smedly]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Should be zero by end of the wk. 

it will be zero because they have little interest in testing anyone and anyone that feels they need to be tested - well the message is go home and procreate ......................................ooooooops I meant isolate

 

no test no report - no cases

[elektrified]

3 hours ago, hydraides said:

That's because they are testing hardly anyone. How many thai's can splash out on 5000 baht test?

 

That's a whole month salary compensation from the government

Rubbish. It costs 300 all the way up to 10000 depending on which test you take.

[Mung]

56 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

Dont be so sure about that. I live in the UK, there 67 million people here. The testing is pretty high (200k) and the numbers are rapidly increasing, however I only know of 1 person that was tested as positive for the virus after he got sick. After that I have not heard of anyone with the virus and I am just North of London. In a population of 67 million it really has to spread in the hundreds of thousands or even millions before you will likely know of lots of people with it... So if you're logic is I "haven't heard of anyway falling over in the streets and none of the people I know have got it" then you need to think again...

Me too, I am in the UK now as we sit with 50,000 cases. I only know of 3 people who have had the virus, and they are all linked due to being the same family. I only know of them as they are clients of my Father. If you think about it, 50,000 out of let's say 65 million equates to 1,340. So on average you'd need to know 1,340 people to know one infection 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Mung

[thaipod]

Fake news. Love the way they try to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes with numbers that don’t add up for a huge population and several borders, plus many not staying home and social distancing.