Thailand reports 111 new coronavirus cases, 3 more deaths

[jonclark]

The Russian who sadly died, apparently died on Sunday. But he is included on Wednesdays list. These list are not an accurate picture of dynamic daily changes.

[Number 6]

49 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

one days outlying data does not break a trend we'll need a few more days rising to do that

 

 

Yeah that was a bit of a laff. Number was down on one day could have been a thousand reasons. Hailed as a turning point. Dog and pony show effective.

[newatthis]

42 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

These figures are whatever the Government want them to be in order to justify their next move.

Never a truer word said; here and all over the world.

[DrTuner]

56 minutes ago, smedly said:

it is meaningless unless the number of tests done are also published

And the number of "Probable", i.e. those that have been tested positive, but not yet confirmed by the two reference labs. It's likely a fairly large number.

Edited April 8, 2020 by DrTuner

[sapson]

Free and perhaps mandatory testing and treatment for everyone including westerners at all hospitals.

 

What percentage of the population have actually been tested ..............a tiny amount.

 

 

Stop local doctors sending people with a persistent high temp and other ailments home with a sack of paracetamol and get them tested asap.....

 

 Especially officials and medical staff must stop focusing on westerners as main virus threats and realise hundreds of thousands of Thais have been exposed to the Chinese over the last few months.

[DrTuner]

29 minutes ago, London1boy said:

It's just the people who felt sick enough and had the cash to pay to get tested. 

They don't end up in the confirmed stats unless verified by two reference labs (NIH of MoPH and Army lab) , as per instructions from MoPH: 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_cpc.pdf

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf

 

Quote

2. Probable case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from one (1) reference laboratory, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

3. Confirmed case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture.

4. Asymptomatic case is defined as a person who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture, but has shown no signs and symptoms.

 

The private hospitals are supposed to send samples to MoPH, but they'd end up in the back of the queue, unlikely to be ever tested as they run our of their "best before" before the ever get to the actual RT-PCR process.

 

EDIT: I guess nobody actually bothers to read those MoPH documents. I've been linking them here for days and weeks. Continue believing in your fluffy unicorn "trend", when the data you are relying is a tiny subset of the one not available to the public. The actions lately speak their own words about what data is available at the MoPH and how that non-public data looks like.

Edited April 8, 2020 by DrTuner

[ThailandRyan]

31 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

Yeah that was a bit of a laff. Number was down on one day could have been a thousand reasons. Hailed as a turning point. Dog and pony show effective.

Holiday on Monday, so maybe they did not work and test, and the ones they had were results from pending that came in, who really knows.  It's a giant <deleted> shoot with clarity.

[Enoon]

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

It's more of a problem for those between 30 and 60 years of age rather than the pensioners, possibly because younger people think nothing can hurt them and so often ignore the self-isolation and social distancing guidelines.

 

 

 

if you would care to find and digest % death rates among the various age groups you would, perhaps, understand the confidence of those in the younger groups.

 

 

[JCP108]

1 hour ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

one days outlying data does not break a trend we'll need a few more days rising to do that

 

 

If all the numbers are faked or invalid because they don't accurately reflect the testing being done or the sick people showing up at hospitals/dying, then there are no trends...only changing numbers. 

[Forza2002]

1 hour ago, wasabi said:

Would be helpful to know the provincial breakdown. Since there is a delayed effect to having symptoms and being tested in most cases this could be the wave that likely occurred when people fled BKK a few weeks ago.

Breakdown by Province can be found on the Dept. Of Disease Control website... http://covid19.ddc.moph.go.th/en

 

The confirmed CV19 numbers are questionable in the highly populated Isaan Provinces given their laissez-faire attitude to rules and regulations in the villages.

[Guderian]

Another reason that the numbers are so low might simply be that people are afraid of the treatment they will receive at the hands of the authorities, and so are trying to self-medicate rather than seek professional help. I've heard that a lot of Thai people feel this way, and it's not in the least bit surprising if foreigners feel even less comfortable with the prospect.

 

This is a link to a Thai's first-person account of arriving last Friday and the runaround they got, as well as the lack of information they received on being quarantined. Imagine if you were a foreigner, unable to speak or understand the language, and this happened to you. Very interesting read with photos to support the story.

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/10GsRLntAI78fv2A1jCJ4HUJqcrHTbtqavGDCDQmhtbY/edit

 

[kwak250]

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

Age and sex distribution of confirmed coronavirus cases in Wales

Female aged 10 and under: 0.3%

Male aged 10 and under: 0.4%

 

Female aged 10-19: 0.6%

Male aged 10-19: 0.6%

Female aged 20-29: 6.3%

Male aged 20-29: 3.6%

 

Female aged 30-39: 8.3%

Male aged 30-39: 4.7%

 

Female aged 40-49: 11.1%

Male aged 40-49: 6.1%

 

Female aged 50-59: 11.6%

Male aged 50-59: 6.9%

 

Female aged 60-69: 5%

Male aged 60-69: 5.2%

 

Female aged 70-79: 4.6%

Male aged 70-79: 7.7%

 

Female aged 80-89: 5.3%

Male aged 80-89: 6.6%

 

Female aged 90-99: 2.6%

Male aged 90-99: 1.5%

This shows that in Wales most of the under 40's are out chasing sheep

[spermwhale]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

One has to question the last two days figures and indeed every days figures. So much for you guys who believe the figures and saw 32 as turning the corner. 

I agree. Were people just sleeping on the job or were they not processing tests quickly enough? 

 

[Mung]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I will ask that pertinent Question? So now are we seeing that possible uptick in numbers from those who failed to heed warnings and still socially gathered in violation of what they were told.  Or from those that still gathered in groups either on the beach or in bars, which id not shut, or from still running around without personal safety at thought.  Could these also be the first numbers from those that traveled home to the provinces?  Just a few Questions as there is no listing, or is it a release from the tests that have been backlogged....

You should never take 1-3 days of figures as a trend with COVID-19. It's better to look at 1-2 weeks to determine a trend, and that's due to many factors 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Mung

[Forza2002]

17 minutes ago, Guderian said:

This is a link to a Thai's first-person account of arriving last Friday and the runaround they got, as well as the lack of information they received on being quarantined. Imagine if you were a foreigner, unable to speak or understand the language, and this happened to you. Very interesting read with photos to support the story.

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/10GsRLntAI78fv2A1jCJ4HUJqcrHTbtqavGDCDQmhtbY/edit

 

That's a terrible ordeal, thanks for sharing....

Edited April 8, 2020 by Forza2002

[Krataiboy]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

Wife was just saying today's figures of 111 includes 40 returning from Indonesia, if thats is the case then the real new infections would be 60.

Possibly still a flattening or downward trend emerging.

 

 

We had a similar spike last month caused by Thai Muslim returnees from Islamic festival in Malaysia which lasted several days and attracted 15,000 faithful. This is lunacy when the rest of us are supposed to live like hermits and face fines and prison if we don't.

[toper3jr]

This is scary, no mentioning of thai infections? Deaths? Recoveries???

[Moonlover]

2 hours ago, wasabi said:

Would be helpful to know the provincial breakdown. Since there is a delayed effect to having symptoms and being tested in most cases this could be the wave that likely occurred when people fled BKK a few weeks ago.

There is such a list. I stumbled upon it just yesterday. Go to this web site. https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en/ (it's becoming quite well known now) Then click any red i button. In the box that opens click on 'data by province'.

 

A list of all the provinces that have cases reported are listed.

 

[garygooner]

According to info Thailand has now tested over 70,000 people which is far greater than Japan. And yes many of today's cases are from Thai Muslims returning from Indonesia. 

[webfact]

Three foreigners succumb to Covid-19 as 111 new cases reported in Thailand

By The Nation

 

 

Thailand’s total number of Covid-19 patients rose to 2,258, with 111 new cases confirmed over a 24-hour period while three foreigners died, Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the government's Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, said on Wednesday (April 8).

 

 

The cases can be divided into four groups:

 

The first group of 37 had had close contact with others previously confirmed as infected (mostly in Bangkok 18, Nontaburi 7, Yala 8).

 

The second group comprised 11 people of whom two Thais had just returned from overseas, four were working in crowded areas or close to foreigners, three had gone to crowded areas, and two are medical staff.

 

The third group of 21 are being investigated on the source of the infection (18 in Phuket).

 

The last group of 42 had returned from Indonesia and are now under state quarantine.

 

Meanwhile, 64 people have fully recovered and returned home.

 

The three foreigners who died included a 48-year-old Russian man who had travelled from Phuket to Chonburi. He had visited a hospital on March 25 and later returned home for self-quarantine.

 

A 69-year-old Indian businessman, who also had diabetes and heart disease, died after being admitted to a hospital on March 17.

 

A 69-year-old American man in Buriram province, who died, also suffered from chronic kidney disease.

 

As of April 8, the total number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 2369 -- 1,451 are under treatment of whom 23 are in a critical condition -- 888 have recovered and been discharged, and there have been 30 deaths.

 

Globally, there are more than 1.4 million confirmed cases and over 80,000 deaths.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30385601

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-08

Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[Chiang Mai Bill]

I wonder if the 'Test Devices' being used are the same ones that the UK bought from China which have been proven to be only 60% accurate?

 

The UK are returning their consignment back to China.

[natway09]

Interesting that no Thai deaths yesterday.

I believe that the 40 that tested positive on return from Indonesia & the other 60 or so whe came with them are safely tucked away in quarantine still shows a daily reduction.

Another day of less than 40 infections would still be moving in the right direction

considering what is happening in the UK, Spain, US etc

[UbonThani]

2 hours ago, Kaopad999 said:

But on the grand scale of things, around 100 cases per day on average is not a bad number. Of course, if it starts rising, and reaches the 200 mark, then a 24 hour curfew would make sense

Only 30 deaths. That's so low. Are these numbers right? Maybe it's 300 but still low.

[pathologix]

Are the numbers lower than the actual total? Of course... as they are for every disease in every country through all of medical history. 

However, if the months-long conspiracy theory about the numbers being purposefully or substantially lower than reality was true, then the hospitals would currently be overflowing with tens of thousands of patients, given the logarithmic growth of this disease and it's high percentage of critical cases. We can see by hospital-bed usage exactly what the growth trends are, even if you don't believe Thailand's current testing protocol is up to your [unqualified] standards. 

 

Also, as a few people have already said in this thread – a single day's numbers are irrelevant in tracking a disease with a 28-day lifespan. 

 

I know this forum is dedicated to calling Thais liars, cheats and corrupt at every single opportunity. However, armchair epidemiologists spreading theories that are not rooted in evidence are highly counterproductive to fighting pandemics. It is counterproductive to encourage people not to trust in their local institutions right now. 

[Grumpy John]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I will ask that pertinent Question? So now are we seeing that possible uptick in numbers from those who failed to heed warnings and still socially gathered in violation of what they were told.  Or from those that still gathered in groups either on the beach or in bars, which id not shut, or from still running around without personal safety at thought.  Could these also be the first numbers from those that traveled home to the provinces?  Just a few Questions as there is no listing, or is it a release from the tests that have been backlogged....

Ask to many questions and you will get the answer to none.....or lies.....or half truths.....or more questions, but asked of you.....by people in a darkened room with the light shone directly at you. 

[elliss]

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Hang on for the Thai covid19 exponential rollercoaster ride.Get your tickets ready for the Songkran shutdown.

 

        Wow.

   That could be a serious a 24-7  curfew,  for a long time .

    Cut back on the testing ,  keep the results down, to acceptable levels . 555

    

Edited April 8, 2020 by elliss

[bmore99]

The high increase was a.o. caused by the repatriation of Thai from Indonesia, 42 of them tested positive. 

 

 

[justin case]

false positives creates more panic .... pcr seems not so reliable

 

nobody asks why china's cases dropped and big cities like Beijing and shanghai were spared???

[JCP108]

39 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Only 30 deaths. That's so low. Are these numbers right? Maybe it's 300 but still low.

Maybe it's 3,000 or 30,000 and we still wouldn't know. I know people insist that it must be about as low as reported since if it were a lot higher, we'd be seeing social media stories about it or bodies lying in the streets. But, that is based on some misguided assumptions. The U.S. CIA Factbook states that the annual death rate in Thailand (see link below) is 8.3/1,000. That means in a country of 69 million people, 573k people die every year and that translates into almost 48k/month. So, 48,000 people died in Thailand last month. Did you see any of those deaths or hear about them? If you saw a mention of a death on social media, did you see 48,000 unique deaths mentioned?

 

If there was even a 10% increase in the death rate in the first three months of this year (meaning an extra 15,000 deaths), I'm guessing most of us would still not directly notice and neither would the average Thai person. So, yes, one can simply not report the numbers (by not testing or whatever) and none of the rest of us truly have a mechanism to refute it. And, worse, this misguided set of assumptions that certainly we would notice an extra 10,000, 20,000, or 30,000 deaths this year actually bolsters that ability to obscure it if it's happening. 

 

I'm not saying all of that proves that it really is happening that way. But, I am saying that the confidence that we would see it is totally fabricated in our heads simply because it's hard to believe such large numbers could die and we wouldn't know. But, think about it...large numbers are dying all the time and we are not directly aware. 

 

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/th.html#field-anchor-people-and-society-death-rate

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by JCP108
hearing voices

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, justin case said:

false positives creates more panic .... pcr seems not so reliable

Haven't heard about false positives, false negatives yes.