teddybeer Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 hours ago, wasabi said: Would be helpful to know the provincial breakdown. Since there is a delayed effect to having symptoms and being tested in most cases this could be the wave that likely occurred when people fled BKK a few weeks ago. see here: https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCP108 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, teddybeer said: see here: https://covidtracker.5lab.co/en But, covidtracker only includes the official cases. That doesn't tell us what's really happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dap Posted April 8, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 8, 2020 4 hours ago, Peterw42 said: Wife was just saying today's figures of 111 includes 40 returning from Indonesia, if thats is the case then the real new infections would be 60. Possibly still a flattening or downward trend emerging. Gotta ask: How is it possible to have (consistently) 100+ almost every day w/o any of these folk infecting more than one other person? When will the infections exceed the 100+ (not 200) each and every day? I don't get it. Do you and if so, please explain it to me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JHolmesJr Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Gosh, really? I thought they just had a sharp drop yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampyThai Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Here in Aranyaphret, Sa Kaeo the local hospital has declined to release any figures for the last 12 days but the hospital in Sa Kaeo releases figures most days, how many other hospitals are keeping quiet and would this affect the published daily figures? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peterw42 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Dap said: Gotta ask: How is it possible to have (consistently) 100+ almost every day w/o any of these folk infecting more than one other person? When will the infections exceed the 100+ (not 200) each and every day? I don't get it. Do you and if so, please explain it to me. Monday and Tuesday were 50 and 38 new cases, not 100+ ,nobody would know how many the infected are infecting each day but since the number of new cases presenting at hospitial is steady or falling, it would appear, isolation, shutdowns are starting to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peterw42 Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, SwampyThai said: Here in Aranyaphret, Sa Kaeo the local hospital has declined to release any figures for the last 12 days but the hospital in Sa Kaeo releases figures most days, how many other hospitals are keeping quiet and would this affect the published daily figures? In theory all the figures are reported to a central database. Whether or not a local hospital discloses their own numbers locally probably doesnt have much to do with the nationwide numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said: Just a few Questions as there is no listing, or is it a release from the tests that have been backlogged... Or just tests that have not been done, I can't see that when the mass exodus from Bangkok etc took place every town/village in the far flung corners of Thailand were ready or even equipped with test kits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post GAZZPA Posted April 8, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 8, 2020 6 hours ago, dinsdale said: One has to question the last two days figures and indeed every days figures. So much for you guys who believe the figures and saw 32 as turning the corner. I dont want to doom and gloom the situation and be accused of thai bashing but,, the numbers must be nonsense. The new cases every day are flat at around 100 or so for weeks. Thai is just not how a virus spreads. So either the testing limit is actually about 100 a day or the they are fudging the numbers, got to be that. Best advice is assume its everywhere and stay safe. good luck.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post GAZZPA Posted April 8, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Dap said: Gotta ask: How is it possible to have (consistently) 100+ almost every day w/o any of these folk infecting more than one other person? When will the infections exceed the 100+ (not 200) each and every day? I don't get it. Do you and if so, please explain it to me. its not possible, the numbers have to be nonsense,,, 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek B Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 5 hours ago, dinsdale said: It's a bit behind but ok. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Thailand#March Don't worry about the March bit. It's updated somewhat. Good link.............must be a full time job updating & fact checking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, DrTuner said: And the number of "Probable", i.e. those that have been tested positive, but not yet confirmed by the two reference labs. It's likely a fairly large number. If any are wondering why numbers of tests are so low should read this revealing article. https://www.thaienquirer.com/10901/thailand-says-focused-testing-more-important-than-mass-testing-mass-testing-very-expensive/ Edited April 8, 2020 by FarFlungFalang 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dap Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, JHolmesJr said: Gosh, really? I thought they just had a sharp drop yesterday. Really? How is that rationally possible when you have on average 100+ infected each day? Don't these people ever make contact with anyone else??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dap Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 15 minutes ago, GAZZPA said: its not possible, the numbers have to be nonsense,,, My best guess as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, GAZZPA said: its not possible, the numbers have to be nonsense,,, I suggest read the article for the answer to the low and constant numbers as they say testing is too expensive. https://www.thaienquirer.com/10901/thailand-says-focused-testing-more-important-than-mass-testing-mass-testing-very-expensive/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneeyedJohn Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 As each day goes by it just gets more silly, and more dangerous. I stopped my wife going to Tops today, just because her health is more important than me complaining about burgers, sausages and fish everyday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monkfish Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 42 of the new infections are from a group of 76 returning from a religious event in Indonesia. That's a big percentage from 76. I think Indonesia also not telling whole truth about the numbers.https://www.mcot.net/viewtna/5e8d540be3f8e40af842e042 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said: If any are wondering why numbers of tests are so low should read this revealing article. https://www.thaienquirer.com/10901/thailand-says-focused-testing-more-important-than-mass-testing-mass-testing-very-expensive/ Thanks, I was wondering when they'd investigate. The only publication around here that has the balls to dig stuff up. It's an excuse though, the PCR test at Bamrasnaradura is 2500 baht for MERS-CoV, which should be similar price to SARS-CoV-2: http://bamras.ddc.moph.go.th/userfiles/Handbook of Specimen collection .pdf . That's very likely the MoPH NIH lab as they are located a stone's throw from each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, DrTuner said: Thanks, I was wondering when they'd investigate. The only publication around here that has the balls to dig stuff up. It's an excuse though, the PCR test at Bamrasnaradura is 2500 baht for MERS-CoV, which should be similar price to SARS-CoV-2: http://bamras.ddc.moph.go.th/userfiles/Handbook of Specimen collection .pdf . That's very likely the MoPH NIH lab as they are located a stone's throw from each other. It does seem like an excuse as the amount of money being thrown around could easily have gone towards testing which begs the question what the bloody hell can be the real reason for not testing?It just makes my tiny mind boggle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkk Brian Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 “We’re not satisfied with this number. We need to pump those numbers up, both the private and public sectors,” Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman of the Center for the COVID-19 Situation Administration said. “We want to test hundreds of thousands of people. With more tests, we might find more infected, but we’re not afraid of that.” The tests number that was published, 70k+ was the amount of tests not the amount of people tested, I'm not sure how many people would need two tests or if thats a requirement? https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2020/04/07/thailands-virus-test-number-trails-behind-s-korea-but-surpasses-japan/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said: The tests number that was published, 70k+ was the amount of tests not the amount of people tested, I'm not sure how many people would need two tests or if thats a requirement? Here's how it goes: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_cpc.pdf To be confirmed you do need two tests and they have to be at the reference labs of MoPH and Army, same for asymptomatic cases (that do not coutn as confirmed even wit those two tests positive): https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf Quote 2. Probable case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from one (1) reference laboratory, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture. 3. Confirmed case is defined as a PUI who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture. 4. Asymptomatic case is defined as a person who has tested positive for genetic materials of SARS-CoV2 by PCR from two (2) reference laboratories, or by genetic sequencing, or by culture, but has shown no signs and symptoms Any tests in private hospitals would still require tests at reference labs, if they are included in the stats at all. And of course they might redo tests. At least all the confirmed have had a minimum of two tests. There is no data available about probable or asymptomatic case count. Or indeed about the amount of tests at MoPH after they deleted the number of pending tests from their reports. Edited April 8, 2020 by DrTuner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bkk Brian Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Here's how it goes: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/g_cpc.pdf To be confirmed you do need two tests and they have to be at the reference labs of MoPH and Army, same for asymptomatic cases (that do not coutn as confirmed even wit those two tests positive): https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_en_21022020.pdf Any tests in private hospitals would still require tests at reference labs, if they are included in the stats at all. And of course they might redo tests. At least all the confirmed have had a minimum of two tests. There is no data available about probable or asymptomatic case count. Or indeed about the amount of tests at MoPH after they deleted the number of pending tests from their reports. Yes thats what I thought. If thats the case then the actual number of people tested would only be half of that 70k+ figure given. Then there is the possibility that people need further tests if they are still showing symptoms as a result of a false negative test. Result being that yes the number of people being tested is far from sufficient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkg Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 (edited) I was bored, so I thought I'd see how the death rate of COVID-19 in hot countries compares to COVID-19 in colder countries. If you don't want to read to the end, approximately 2.6% of all COVID-19 deaths happened in hot countries. All numbers taken from today: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 08/04/20 COVID-19 deaths per hot country (temps averaging over 20 degrees C between Jan-Mar) Brazil 686 Indonesia 221 Philippines 177 India 160 Mexico 125 Peru 107 Dominican Rep 98 Malaysia 63 Argentina 60 Pakistan 57 Panama 55 Australia 49 Thailand 27 Honduras 22 Other countries (fewer than 20 deaths) 250 approx total hot deaths 2157 2.6% total other deaths 81,488 97.4% total all deaths 83,645 Edited April 8, 2020 by nkg hot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 1 hour ago, nkg said: If you don't want to read to the end, approximately 2.6% of all COVID-19 deaths happened in hot countries. Just for fun, why don't you do the number of tests done in the hot countries vs the cold countries next? And please do tell me once you get reliable data from the 3rd world countries that tend to be the majority in the tropics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkg Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, DrTuner said: Just for fun, why don't you do the number of tests done in the hot countries vs the cold countries next? And please do tell me once you get reliable data from the 3rd world countries that tend to be the majority in the tropics. I have no point to prove, I just find the numbers interesting ???? Looking at Australia, who have conducted a large number of tests and have excellent healthcare: 310,000 tests 6,013 total cases 49 deaths That's 2 deaths per million population, lower than any European country. I'd regard their data as reliable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blumpie Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Exactly 3 weeks ago - Italy had 569 cases and 8 deaths. Today 139,000 cases and 17.669 deaths. And there's a lot more that are going to die yet from that 139,000 infections. This is what happens when you don't flatten the curve. You older expats really need to stay inside for now if you can. Be careful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blumpie Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 2 hours ago, nkg said: I was bored, so I thought I'd see how the death rate of COVID-19 in hot countries compares to COVID-19 in colder countries. If you don't want to read to the end, approximately 2.6% of all COVID-19 deaths happened in hot countries. All numbers taken from today: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 08/04/20 COVID-19 deaths per hot country (temps averaging over 20 degrees C between Jan-Mar) Brazil 686 Indonesia 221 Philippines 177 India 160 Mexico 125 Peru 107 Dominican Rep 98 Malaysia 63 Argentina 60 Pakistan 57 Panama 55 Australia 49 Thailand 27 Honduras 22 Other countries (fewer than 20 deaths) 250 approx total hot deaths 2157 2.6% total other deaths 81,488 97.4% total all deaths 83,645 Interesting numbers. Just so you are aware, Peru isn't hot. I can confirm to you too that scientists remain unconvinced so far that heat has anything to do with transmission rates. That's so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkg Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Blumpie said: Interesting numbers. Just so you are aware, Peru isn't hot. I can confirm to you too that scientists remain unconvinced so far that heat has anything to do with transmission rates. That's so far. Yes, Peru was a marginal one - I included it because it showed average temperatures of over 20C for Jan, Feb and Mar. If I had increased the cutoff to 25C or higher, there would be even fewer "hot country deaths". I don't have any theory as to why temperature (and/or humidity) would affect death rates so much, but the numbers are startling. I hope that heat/humidity does have some effect on COVID - it could help to put a brake on the virus heading into the summer months. We certainly shouldn't be relying on this though. Edited April 8, 2020 by nkg hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blumpie Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 I look at the numbers and wonder too. The way the news is going around and armchair medical personnel, it's incredible. Yes, Peru is never hot. Other than the Latinos there, it's a cold bleak country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkg Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 29 minutes ago, Blumpie said: I look at the numbers and wonder too. The way the news is going around and armchair medical personnel, it's incredible. Yes, Peru is never hot. Other than the Latinos there, it's a cold bleak country. I'm not sure if you are sceptical about the numbers or just interested ???? They can all be found at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ This website reports the daily statistics reported by each country, and the numbers seem to match up with wikipedia and other sources. Lots of interesting data. Sorting the data by "Deaths/1M population" shows which countries have been the hardest hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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