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Thailand reports 54 new COVID-19 infections

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4 hours ago, Guderian said:

There's a good piece on the Bangkok Post website at the moment, but we're not allowed to quote it here so you'll have to look for it yourself, about the CCSA defending the tests. South Korea has carried out almost ten times as many tests as Thailand, yet the overall rate of infection found among those tested is roughly the same as Thailand's (2.19% versus 2.8%) so it doesn't look like they're missing vast numbers here. Of course, it would be nice to test far more people, and they probably will as the pressure to do so mounts. At the moment, though, their limited, targeted testing doesn't seem to be doing too badly. Keep in mind that no country knows the true numbers infected, it's not just a Thai problem.

Latest reports say that Thailand has tested 70,000 people.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I hope the first step is to at least open up the restaurants and keep chairs well apart.

Just wonder how long they can keep all the anxious tourists out.

Unless their is a test available for every person, there will always be a risk.

I hope  waitresses leave my glass alone. I don't want them randomly topping it off! How about those dirty menu's

Edited by riclag
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Guderian said:

There's a good piece on the Bangkok Post website at the moment, but we're not allowed to quote it here so you'll have to look for it yourself, about the CCSA defending the tests. South Korea has carried out almost ten times as many tests as Thailand, yet the overall rate of infection found among those tested is roughly the same as Thailand's (2.19% versus 2.8%) so it doesn't look like they're missing vast numbers here. Of course, it would be nice to test far more people, and they probably will as the pressure to do so mounts. At the moment, though, their limited, targeted testing doesn't seem to be doing too badly. Keep in mind that no country knows the true numbers infected, it's not just a Thai problem.

You can't divide by 71,860 (the new number of reported tests) since the filter in place (see others' posts explaining this) doesn't let the positives in that group get counted unless they meet the tighter criteria. So, you can only divide by the 25k that was reported before we bumped it up to 72k tests. Therefore, the hit rate would be 0.0969 for Thailand. Also, the logic that the Thai hit rate resembling another country's hit rate being evidence of valid measures in Thailand is not sound. 

Edited by JCP108
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

I get your incredulity at our worry. But, I think you and some others are making an error when you assume that it would be unavoidably obvious and not able to be hidden if an extra 5-10k people were dying each month in Thailand. But, consider that, on average, 48k people die in Thailand every month. How many of those did you see? If 48k turned into 58k, why do you somehow believe that we would all develop magical powers to see all those deaths?

 

I got back to Thailand at the first of Feb. So, was here all that month as well as March...and, now into April. So, statistically about 100k people would have died of all various causes in Thailand while I've been here. I directly know of two people who died of old age. I've seen the reports on the news about the handful who have died from C-19. Other than that, I'm oblivious to all the thousands of other deaths and so are you. I have no idea if there was a 10-20% bump in the monthly average number of deaths. That data is not being made available and none of us has magically become omniscient. Not me. Not you. Stop thinking you'd see all those deaths simply because it's a big number. 10-20k sounds like a lot of people dying. But, spread that out over a few weeks in a country of 70 million and you simply: do. not. see. them. You don't.

Like I said, I would be saying the same thing as you and some others here if it were Early March.

We had been shamelessly letting in Chinese Mainlanders until March at a rate of 9.5 million a year.  It should have blown up and spectacularly by now.

 

Monitor social media and the signals from individuals.  These include those that work at hospitals, walking by hospitals, going into hospitals, driving by hospitals, and those that live by hospitals.

 

 

Edited by LeamchabangLarry

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17 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

  It should have blown up and spectacularly by now.

 

 

 

 

...and, we should all be magically aware of it. I don't think I did a good job of getting my point across. 

 

If you ask me: Did 10k, 20, 30k, 40k, or 50k people die in Thailand last month? I simply don't know and neither do you or any of the other posters on here. We don't. 

 

If an extra 5k people died in the country over the last four weeks, that represents only a 10% bump in business as usual. Since the beginning of the year, an extra 15k people could have died with only a 10% increase in deaths. So, basically the same number of raw deaths that have been reported in Italy could have happened here with about a 12% jump in the Thai death rate. Why, why, why do you think that if deaths in this country increased by 10-12% you and I would have to see it? Why?

Edited by JCP108
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4 hours ago, bamboozled said:

Who gets tested? How is it determined who gets the test? People that have some sort of symptom and go to a hospital or doctor about it?

That's pretty much how they do it in the UK, although they have now started testing 

health workers and politicians.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

...and, we should all be magically aware of it. I don't think I did a good job of getting my point across. 

 

If you ask me: Did 10k, 20, 30k, 40k, or 50k people die in Thailand last month? I simply don't know and neither do you or any of the other posters on here. We don't. 

 

If an extra 5k people died in the country over the last four weeks, that represents only a 10% bump in business as usual. Since the beginning of the year, an extra 15k people could have died with only a 10% increase in deaths. So, basically the same number of raw deaths that have been reported in Italy could have happened here with about a 12% jump in the Thai death rate. Why, why, why do you think that if deaths in this country increased by 10-12% you and I would have to see it? Why?

Ok, let's take the middle ground of your number.

 

Do we agree that Bangkok is more concentrated than any 5 other provinces put together?

Let's assume 50% happened in Bangkok given population density, foreign visitors, and mass transportation.

 

I think we would VISIBLY see 15k people dying in Bangkok over the course of 2-3 weeks, coming out of Bangkok hospitals, if not on social media.  Additionally, put all the Bangkok hospitals together and there is not enough capacity for 15,000 ICU patients.

 

.... just to stay on your point

Edited by LeamchabangLarry

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24 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

Parking lots about 25% full and Samitivej was a ghost town inside.

 

We would be hearing about it on social media if the ICUs were bursting at the seams

Private hospital isn't it? Social media? Maybe. It is of course being monitored. Let's wait and see if images start coming out. Fairly sure anyone who posts such images would be in for not such a good time. Also it's not just those who need to present to hospital that has this virus. 

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3 hours ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Wouldn't know that unless they actually tested people presenting to the hospital with a simple fever or cough instead of these convoluted guidelines they are going by now. 

 

And all this assumes they are being transparent, not manipulating the numbers. 

Would that not lead to a far higher percentage of positive results as they are only

testing patients showing symptoms of the virus?

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2 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

That's pretty much how they do it in the UK, although they have now started testing 

health workers and politicians.

A friend of my partners had to fork out 7000 baht out of their 15000 baht wage to get a covid test as their work colleagues had a meeting saying they couldn’t return to work unless they had the test.

 

This is after a 2 week quarantine from visiting another province, with an additional 3 days from the past extended weekend.

 

The workplace then rejected the test results because they didn’t use the words positive/negative.

 

No limit to the stupidity

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, LeamchabangLarry said:

 

 

Do we agree that Bangkok is more concentrated than any 5 other provinces put together?

 

...probably...not sure, but I would accept that. I still think wherever hospitals are concentrated or not, a 10-12% bump in business could happen without our seeing it. 

 

Think about it this way, data in the real world (to the extent you can measure it) is usually lumpy, not smooth. That means if we ignore that we're currently focused on this virus, the death rate fluctuates probably by a fair amount each week. People don't die on schedule in even numbers each day. So, you and I don't get notified nor do we become aware of 10-20% fluctuations in the death rate in BKK or the country. But, such fluctuations happen all the time (my assumption). So, I apply that same thinking to this situation and think that neither you nor I nor any other poster on here could or would be aware of such a fluctuation in the Thai hospital business or in Thai deaths in general (considering all the ones including those outside the hospitals). 

Edited by JCP108

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2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Good idea, care to point me to the raw data for those? From a reputable source. I can wait.

The main reason for the social isolation in the UK is to try to stop the virus affecting too

many people at once, those who suffer bad complications all require ICU treatment, many

with ventilation.

 

No health care system in the world has the capacity to expand its ICU beds by 10-15% which

is why the field and temporary hospitals are being set up.

 

If the hospitals in Thailand had been overwhelmed with the kind of numbers you are suggesting

then that would be visually obvious and impossible to paper over.

 

 

Sorry, I didn't mean to quote Dinsdale, I was replying to JCP108's post.

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2 minutes ago, shy coconut said:

 

 

No health care system in the world has the capacity to expand its ICU beds by 10-15% which

is why the field and temporary hospitals are being set up.

 

If the hospitals in Thailand had been overwhelmed with the kind of numbers you are suggesting

then that would be visually obvious and impossible to paper over.

 

 

Sorry, I didn't mean to quote Dinsdale, I was replying to JCP108's post.

If ICU beds aren't running at capacity, then a 10% increase in business might still be within their normal capacity. I wouldn't assume that they were running at 100% full prior to this. 

 

I still say that a 10-12% increase would not be "visually obvious and impossible to paper over." I think that kind of fluctuation happens all the time and we don't see it. I get that you and others are convinced you would (and, so I'm going to stop trying to make the opposite point). I just don't think we would. 

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