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Future outlook for Phuket


thaibutty

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I personally have no clue how it will go. I cross fingers. Difficult to say. Obviously not good but cannot predict. From all the list of issues you mentioned I'd be rather concerned with homeland security, attacs, robbery and any kind of racism. Because the economic problems... I think are virtually everywhere else too. Obviously Phuket more affected since it lives greatly on tourism. Not sure.

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5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Take into account it has been announced that schools won't restart till July. So that means for international schools in September.

 

Personally I am more optimistic than you and think that it will pickup sooner than you expect, but who knows. I do know I don't have the money for a bad high season.

 

Regarding crime, people keep saying that, but I have been hearing this for years and years already, and have so far not experienced or seen crime rates increase. So for the moment I am not worried about that.

 

I hope it picks up earlier. Of course, it is also too early to make a prediction. I guess sometime before the start of the school year it will become more clear if we can expect a return to somewhat normal for the high season. 

 

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Worldwide tourism will be affected till at least year end and probably way after. Infection rates are almost doubling each week, so can expect almost 4million at next weekend, with 8 million befoe May...thats scary figures. Unless a magical vaccine is found...no one will be traveling anywhere. If I had a business with rent etc to pay, I would be inclined to quit, strip and get what you can for chattels and then start a fresh if things ever pick up. Hard call to dump a business that you've worked hard to build up but these thing a happen and you have to calculate colatoral damage.

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Phuket has recovered from localised problems in the past, notably the 2004 tsunami, but this is a global problem and it doesnt matter whether Phuket is ready for guests for the next high season, its a case of whether the guests will be ready to come. 

 

Personally I think it'll be a while before most tourists return, and many never will, but the Russians are an interesting case. There are still a few around and many saw it out right until the last minute before leaving, unlike other nationalities who left long before (sensibly!!!). I also had emails from Russians very disappointed that they were forced to cancel, and this was as recent as two weeks ago! I even took a Russian booking last week for November!

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8 hours ago, phuketrichard said:

If i had a high end restaurant/resort/hotel i would seriously be thinking of walking away rather than go into debt to hold on till the middle class tourists return.

Some of these high end resort/hotel owners would have paid tens of millions for their businesses - they are unlikely to walk away from that kind of investment

Edited by darrendsd
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This low season was supposed to kill a lot of business owners, the next high season was not expected to become better than previous 2 either.

Guess it is like 96% sure that nothing will be close to normal again for the next 12 months, so that includes coming high season. Unless Chinese have to make it up.

Now we are not even talking about domestic recessions, global recession or even depression. In that case it could take up to a decade in time.
If they somehow scam things up once again, we could see a relieve of a few years before still facing the same negative outlook.

To conclude, risk to sit-out and sell off during a relieve period or take the loss now and make plans to move on. 
I hope I am wrong about it but I been right more on things like these in the past decade, been saying the peak was reached since the coup.

Edited by ChaiyaTH
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4 hours ago, William Osborne said:

That guy on Spotlight Thailand isnt doing anyone any favors......from what i've seen he's against all foreigners who even go out for walk.....????

 

Don't pay any attention to what the Thai think

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Waiting to get back to Phuket as our flights have been cancelled we have been trying to forecast various scenarios

 

I think there is so much money tied up in airlines, planes, airports and tourism and it is such a cash cow for nearly all governments there will be huge pressure to get all this infrastructure moving as quickly as possible.

The jobs are also so necessary and effect all countries.

 

My pick is flying will start in July and in full sweep by November. 

 

Whether Thailand and Phuket get a share of the pent up spending will remain to be seen but I am optimistic. Look at the recovery after the Tsunami, just miraculous

Edited by Patong2
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42 minutes ago, Destiny1990 said:

How about these annoying tuktuks in Patong filling up parking spaces still there?

I think those that do come back will find out pretty quick their good ole days are gone!!

 

Im guessing there will be way less but some will only realise it after days and days of sitting it their locations without a single customer then be forced to move on or go back home. ( Hopefully) 

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Never mind it is Phuket, Vienna or NY. This "Corona crisis" will last till the big boys with the deep pockets got what they want. If they also want the illiquid assets the longer it will last.

When they got it Corona will fade away in the news and life will be back to normal in weeks. Have a look at Wuhan.

 

Like 97/98, 08/09 and 2020 when blood is on the steets it's time to buy assets. Buying since march again and will go on.

 

Chinese, russians and also europeans will be back this year if we get no great depression. Our chances are not bad that it's only a bumpy recession.

 

Looking and planing forward to fly to KL in June/July to relax from our shut-lock down.

 

Interesting question is why is Phuket getting this special corona treatment? Because of the nice weather or the bigger fruits to reap?

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My thoughts after reading your insights. I.e. this is just my personal opinion based on my gut feeling:


* I believe the few seasons before the coronavirus crisis were anyway already a bit weaker than usual. Not only in Phuket but in general in Thailand. I remember to be in November in Hua Hin... never saw so little tourists.
* In general both the Thai government, and the local business were embracing more and more Chinese and Indian tourists than Western tourists. And Western tourists were slightly also shifting to some other destinations.
* I agree with you we will see more Chinese tourists vs Western tourists in the upcoming future. And whoever knows anything about Sihanoukville knows Chinese tourists do not spread their money the same way as Western: i.e. Chinese bring money, but it gets collected by some other Chinese. Just the location is abroad ????

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