What are the chances of a complete financial meltdown?

[watgate]

Financial pundits such as Jim Rickards are saying we are headed for very tough times. He says your money in the bank is really not yours, its the banks and as more people try and withdraw their funds they will not be able to or can just withdraw a little and told to come back at a later date. He said with all the trillions of dollars being printed and being used by the federal reserve to bail out businesses and the trillions that is being given out to US citizens it is  going to create massive inflation problems. He says there is a very real possibility of social unrest and riots as times get tougher due to the huge unemployment problem which has risen. Folks who try and liquidate their financial holdings so they can buy gold won't be able to since new orders for gold purchases aren't being accepted now. If our life savings is in jeopardy and as the economy continues to worsen how bad can things truly get? 

[Leaver]

Investors from ll around the world will be flocking to Thai banks because their deposit is guaranteed up to 5 million baht.   ????????

[rupert the bear]

an interesting perspective,imo its hard to say,gov everywheres messed this up big time,all the free money in the west has to be paid for,that means devaluation of the currency firstly.tax next.in cyprus a few yrs ago accs were frozen and 10% taken out dont put that past them,in the depresssion USA outlawed holding gold personally and stole t from people that had it.i do feel the govts have now realised the people must go back to work for several reasons and that will limit the fall out,immunity is greater than 1st thought and few people die  less than 0.5% so 99.5% of us move on .the victims are 80% plus very old and infirmed.that realisations setting in.

[topt]

3 hours ago, watgate said:

won't be able to since new orders for gold purchases aren't being accepted

Everywhere? Citation please otherwise this sounds like hot air....... 

[Peterw42]

So a guy that makes his living writing books about financial meltdowns and gold as currency is predicting a financial meltdown and gold as currency, what are the odds of that, lol

[BritManToo]

It's unlikely because all the countries are in the same sinking boat.

If it were just one country with the problem, that country would be in deep trouble.

 

All these doom-sayers have never managed to predict anything in the past, why would one of them be right now?

Edited April 10, 2020 by BritManToo

[Leaver]

3 hours ago, rupert the bear said:

an interesting perspective,imo its hard to say,gov everywheres messed this up big time,all the free money in the west has to be paid for,that means devaluation of the currency firstly.tax next.in cyprus a few yrs ago accs were frozen and 10% taken out dont put that past them,in the depresssion USA outlawed holding gold personally and stole t from people that had it.i do feel the govts have now realised the people must go back to work for several reasons and that will limit the fall out,immunity is greater than 1st thought and few people die  less than 0.5% so 99.5% of us move on .the victims are 80% plus very old and infirmed.that realisations setting in.

 

After this discovery, I think you will find immunity is less then we first thought.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-test-postive-again-quarantine-release-covid-19

 

We are only at the start of a long medical and economic journey. 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Leaver

[InfinityandBeyond]

15 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

After this discover, I think you will find immunity is less then we first thought.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-test-postive-again-quarantine-release-covid-19

 

We are only at the start of a long medical and economic journey. 

Just reading on another thread a woman from Chaiyapum also tested positive again after being released from hospital in BKK. This is far from over. 

[jacob29]

3 hours ago, rupert the bear said:

few people die  less than 0.5% so 99.5% of us move on .the victims are 80% plus very old and infirmed.that realisations setting in.

1 in 200 is few people? That's quite significant. That 0.37% from the Germany study is likely to be a lower bound, relatively healthy population, health system not overwhelmed due to social distancing. It's reasonable to suppose the average will settle somewhere north of that, not too far from early estimates of 1%.

[FinickyFarang]

25 minutes ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

Just reading on another thread a woman from Chaiyapum also tested positive again after being released from hospital in BKK. This is far from over. 

Curious as to what this woman is doing to be infected twice.  Let's say we use the gov's numbers and I'll just round it to 3,000 or so infected.  

 

3,000 out of 70 million people is a pretty rare occurrence.  That's like a 0.000000428571429% infection rate.  

 

And this woman gets it twice?  She should go out and buy some lottery tickets ????

 

Is she a medical professional treating COVID-19 patients?  Gotta be some explanation as to how she got exposed twice given the above odds.  

[timendres]

In my opinion, we are going to see serious recessions simultaneously around the globe. Markets are still not at the bottoms they will see in the next year. Recovery will take 2 to 4 years or longer, depending on the country. This will be ugly, not I do not see meltdown. As for inflation? Forget about it. The central banks have been trying to create it for years. It is pushing on a string at the moment.

[InfinityandBeyond]

10 minutes ago, FinickyFarang said:

Curious as to what this woman is doing to be infected twice.  Let's say we use the gov's numbers and I'll just round it to 3,000 or so infected.  

 

3,000 out of 70 million people is a pretty rare occurrence.  That's like a 0.000000428571429% infection rate.  

 

And this woman gets it twice?  She should go out and buy some lottery tickets ????

 

Is she a medical professional treating COVID-19 patients?  Gotta be some explanation as to how she got exposed twice given the above odds.  

If recall correctly she had returned from the US in March. Occupation was not identified. Trying to find the link but it is somewhere on thaivisa. 

[FinickyFarang]

2 minutes ago, timendres said:

Recovery will take 2 to 4 years or longer, depending on the country. 

The whole recovery aspect is where I'm a little cautious due to what the definition of recovery actually is.  

 

Is it just the stock markets?  Personally, I think we'll probably reach pre-Corona levels in 1 - 2 years.  

 

The overall economies?  That's a harder one because, IMHO, Corona wasn't a 2008-type event where we can measure how quickly things go back to the way they were.  I think this will fundamentally change a lot of industries.  

 

I think people will get used to the social distancing.  Less face-to-face business meetings, which means less air travel, and less hotel bookings.  I think people will avoid overcrowded bars and restaurants. 

 

I was just talking to a friend and he mentioned the chill he gets thinking about going to Las Vegas when it reopens and touching chips that have seen thousands of grubby hands all over them.  

 

I was also talking to a buddy of mine that is the CFO for a small-medium sized company (150 - 200 people) and they have everyone working from home and he and the CEO and other executives are talking about operating remotely even after the virus threat is over.  They could reduce their office space, lower operating costs, etc.  

 

We may never shake that.  That may become the new norm.  

 

But in its place, we may see different industries take off.  Streaming services like Netflix.  Virtual meeting services.  Food delivery.  As more business go remote, cybersecurity will flourish.  More online purchases (Amazon, eCommerce)

 

There's already talk of some companies brining their manufacturing, or at least critical component sourcing, back to their countries rather than doing it in China.  

 

Probably a lot more automation, like Amazon, to lower headcount.  Less workers = less disruptions the next virus.  

 

So, it's interesting to see how this all settles out.  I don't think we're going back to Dec 2019.  We're heading more towards a very different model of what the economy even looks like.  

[Leaver]

40 minutes ago, timendres said:

Recovery will take 2 to 4 years or longer, depending on the country.

One thing is for sure, our grand children will still be paying for it. 

[Lacessit]

IMO stock markets have further to tank. Many companies are talking about suspending dividends.

Cash is king more than ever. It will take 1 -2 years for all this to shake out financially.

Complete meltdown unlikely, those in debt are in deep doo-doo. No one wants to loan you anything.

[bkk6060]

6 hours ago, watgate said:

trillions of dollars being printed and being used by the federal reserve to bail out businesses and the trillions that is being given out to US citizens it is  going to create massive inflation problems.

They have been saying that for decades as the deficit continues to climb now well over 20 trillion.

Inflation is very very low and interest rares at zero.

The deficit has shown to have little effect.

Inflation is created when their is a demand for products and fast rising wages.

None of that is on the horizon, especially in the near future. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by bkk6060

[bwpage3]

Remember what happened in Thailand in '97?

[Puchaiyank]

No one in the world has a handle on recovering financially from this virus economy slowdown.

 

It is complicated...millions of businesses will not reopen putting multi-millions of people out of work...straining government resources...

 

Those who become desperate to feed their families may resort to taking food by force...

 

IMO...Chaos and anarchy will erupt in some world communities...be prepared.

[Conno]

Meltdown almost guaranteed depending on your definition of what a meltdown is. The longer this madness continues a global depression not recession is a certainty. USA unemployment claims numbers released last night, 6.8 million new claims. Last week 6.6 million new claims. Week before that 3.3 million claims. Total claims for the 3 weeks lock-down period just short of 17 million. The global financial system was on the brink of collapse and a "reset" even before this conveniently timed C - 19 emerged.

 

This way the "virus" gets the blame rather than those who are truly responsible. 

 

As of yesterday that equates to 1132 lost jobs for every "official" C - 19 death in the USA alone. Globally it's probably a similar statistic. Yes a meltdown is virtually inevitable now.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Conno

[Conno]

bkk6060 Your definition of inflation is only partially correct. Rising wages are a symptom not a cause. Fundamentally inflation is a result of the debasement of national fiat currencies by Central Banks hand in hand with Governments. Prices rise due to currencies having reduced purchasing power. What you are describing and seeing up to now is deflationary effects and low currency velocity. Trust me inflation or even hyper-inflation is just around the corner and when it arrives if you study history and other examples of when this occurred it will happen fast. Keep your eye on the Canary in the mine, Gold and Silver bullion. Not the paper versions of the same which are also rigged, but the physical market which is already selling at a premium above spot, if you can even find any of course.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Conno

[Leaver]

43 minutes ago, Conno said:

Meltdown almost guaranteed depending on your definition of what a meltdown is. The longer this madness continues a global depression not recession is a certainty. USA unemployment claims numbers released last night, 6.8 million new claims. Last week 6.6 million new claims. Week before that 3.3 million claims. Total claims for the 3 weeks lock-down period just short of 17 million. The global financial system was on the brink of collapse and a "reset" even before this conveniently timed C - 19 emerged.

 

This way the "virus" gets the blame rather than those who are truly responsible. 

 

As of yesterday that equates to 1132 lost jobs for every "official" C - 19 death in the USA alone. Globally it's probably a similar statistic. Yes a meltdown is virtually inevitable now.

Yes, but the Thai government has insured bank deposits, so carry on as normal, no problem in Thiland.   ????

[Conno]

LOL indeed. 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Conno

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, FinickyFarang said:

Gotta be some explanation as to how she got exposed twice given the above odds. 

maybe she never fully recovered? 

[Conno]

Leaver - Just as in the USA with the FDIC insuring Bank deposits up to $250.000. Problem is this FDIC "insurance" covers over 5000 US Banks with around $14 Trillion on deposit. Does the FDIC have $14 Trillion to pay out if there is a systemic meltdown of the financial system? Well even by their own admission they do have a credit line with the Federal Reserve for $1 Billion. Hmm $1 Billion against $14 Trillion? Thailand's Bank deposit insurance scheme probably involves similar numbers but I do confess haven't looked into that directly. Hope that gives everyone a warm fuzzy feeling of security knowing that. Personally I am my own Bank. Physical Gold Silver bullion and Bitcoin. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Conno

[NightSky]

6 minutes ago, Conno said:

Personally I am my own Bank. Physical Gold Silver bullion and Bitcoin. 

 

When the khee really hits the fan your gold, silver and bitcoin would be worth less than paper.

 

At least you can wipe your butt with paper.

[sirineou]

3 hours ago, FinickyFarang said:

Curious as to what this woman is doing to be infected twice.  Let's say we use the gov's numbers and I'll just round it to 3,000 or so infected.  

 

3,000 out of 70 million people is a pretty rare occurrence.  That's like a 0.000000428571429% infection rate.  

 

And this woman gets it twice?  She should go out and buy some lottery tickets ????

 

Is she a medical professional treating COVID-19 patients?  Gotta be some explanation as to how she got exposed twice given the above odds.  

It is just as possible that that she got a false Negative than that she was re-infected  (not sure what type of test they use in Thailand)

" the most common type of COVID-19 test, known as a reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, may give false-negative results about 30% of the time. "

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

Edited April 10, 2020 by sirineou

[Conno]

Nightsky - If it gets to that lvl then you won't even need toilet paper as you will have already kissed your a s s goodbye.

[sameasb4]

worth a listen 4 scenarios sorry wrong link

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by sameasb4

[sameasb4]

 

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

those in debt are in deep doo-doo.

And that would be a lot of Thai's, in the near future.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/thai-household-debt-hits-all-time-high-of-340k-baht-per-house