Jump to content
Thai Visa Forum

Expert offers roadmap to reopen Thai cities


Recommended Posts

Expert offers roadmap to reopen Thai cities

By The Nation

 

800_2a27e6160138724.jpeg?v=1586504383

A girl lies across seats at the almost deserted Suvarnabhumi Airport on April 9 after the government banned flight arrivals from April 7-18. NationPhoto/Supakit Khumkun

 

Gradually reopening cities may be the best option to contain the spread of Covid-19 while allowing some businesses to restart, an economist at the Thailand Development Research Institute TDRI said.

 

Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at TDRI, an independent think-tank, is pondering the resumption of city life when the nationwide curfew and lockdown ends on April 30.

 

He said many people are sceptical that cities will return to full functioning after the month of lockdown, as it may take longer to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control.

 

Lockdown is a tool to enforce social distancing, but there are other measures being applied that are not mandatory, Somchai explained. These are divided into three groups: 

 

First, educating people about preventing contagion by washing hands frequently, wearing face masks, and staying 2 metres apart. Second, corporates and organisations screening for body temperature and mask-wearing on entry to their buildings or offices. And third, government testing asymptomatic people and arranging quarantine at home or elsewhere for risk groups.

 

In January China imposed drastic measures to shutdown Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. Three months later, the Chinese government has started to reopen the city.

 

Meanwhile South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have not imposed drastic lockdowns, yet have succeeded in slowing the rate of new Covid-19 infections.

 

South Korea cut the rate to only 1 per cent after its total cases reached 10,000 in early April. This better than the United States or countries in Europe, despite South Korea not imposing the severe lockdowns seen in Italy. New cases in Italy rose15-20 per cent after reaching the 10,000 level, although that rate finally slowed to 3-4 per cent when cases totalled 100,000.

 

Taiwan had 376 cases as of April 7, or only 16 infections per 1 million population – half Thailand’s infection rate of 32 per million. Although it discovered its first case only one week later than Thailand, Taiwan’s infection rate has been much slower since total cases reached 100.

 

Taiwan is only testing about 1,500 people per million people, or about one-sixth of South Korea’s testing rate. Taiwan’s outstanding results derive instead from tracking risk groups and applying strict quarantine.

 

However, we must be cautious about interpreting these numbers as meaning that if we apply only the third set of measures mentioned above – widespread testing and quarantine – then we can relax all other restrictions significantly. There are other factors involved, including people’s hygiene awareness and cooperation. The measures introduced by corporates and other organisations could also become game-changers, said Somchai.

 

Japan may also offer lessons, since its relatively slow infection rate meant it took 66 days before total cases reached the 1,000 threshold. Japan tested a small number of people for virus – 300 per million – or one-fifth of Taiwan’s test rate and one-30th of South Korea’s. Japan has not imposed city lockdown, but it has likely done better because Japanese practise social distancing and have a culture of cleanliness.

 

Somchai suggests that countries need to apply a range of different measures which also meet their own specific socio-economic context.

 

For Thailand, people should be educated on what preventive measures to take in various situations – in their own homes , dormitories, condominiums, fresh markets, and mini-marts. They should travel by ordinary, rather than air-con, buses in order to reduce risks of coming into contact with the virus.

 

People in very corner of society should be educated so that they apply preventive behaviour voluntarily.

 

At the same time, the government has to up its efforts in virus testing, tracing-and-tracking and quarantine in order to protect healthy people and prevent infectious people spreading the virus. Signs suggest that Thailand’s virus-testing capacity has increased rapidly, although it is still not on par with South Korea and Germany, said Somchai.

 

Thailand needs to do more on tracing, tracking and quarantine by, for example, using tele-medicine so that a small number of doctors can screen large numbers of people for virus testing and quarantine. Somchai suggests gradually reopening cities but with three considerations. The first thing to consider is places with high risk of contagion by their nature. Second, are there measures to reduce risks without too much cost? Third, if proper measures remain in place, how soon can economic activities resume. Authorities have to take into account both disease control and economic cost, he added.

 

High-risk venues where air circulation is poor, such as boxing stadiums and entertainment venues, should remain closed after April 30. These potential virus hotspots also include pubs, bars, concerts, movie theatres, snooker club and gambling dens. 

 

Different measures should be applied to public institutions such as schools, universities, museums and libraries, as well as small, medium and large businesses.

 

In public institutions, the government must impose preventive measures such as barring entry to Covid cases, wearing face masks, social distancing seating arrangements, and frequent hand-washing.

 

For large businesses, the Thai Chamber of Commerce or Federation of Thai Industries may introduce measures. For example, mandatory temperature-taking and mask-wearing for shoppers in department stores, while providing hand gel dispensers every 20 metres in shopping areas and enforcing 1.5-metre social distancing.

 

Small businesses such as hairdressers, beauty salons and small restaurants may not have the capacity or knowledge to handle reopening. They may have to consult universities, foundations, or research centres. In China, small restaurants have arranged panels to separate tables.

 

All risk reducing measures should be clearly announced and strictly enforced by the government, with penalties for violators. The government could launch pilot projects for two weeks after April 30, with trials runs in Bangkok or certain provinces so as to compare easing measures to find the best options. The government may then reimpose lockdowns according to its assessment of the Covid-19 situation in different locations. Results of the trials will indicate whether we can go ahead with lockdown easing, or what restrictive measures needed to be adjusted, Somcha said.

 

He concluded that these are primary proposals, and that people should also participate in introducing proper measures for the reopening of cities. The resumption of normal life should be done gradually in order to contain the spread of virus but at the same time resume some economic activities. 

 

“The most important thing is to ease hardships being suffered by the poor, because this would lower the government budget to cushion the impacts of the virus,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30385740

 

nation.jpg

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-10
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 74
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Not just him, I think the majority of the world that has been put into forced lock down will be itching to get back to work/business... There will come a time when economic necessity, out weighs the 

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

If anyone here doesn't think 'herd' immunity is being gained by default at the moment is kidding themselves ,   The virus has been in Thailand since DEC and I don't believe for one minute pe

4 minutes ago, Queenslander said:

I wonder if you would be so indignant if your income was stopped. Ivory towers syndrome. 

Many people rely on their daily,  weekly,  monthly income the lack of which has not only economic but social and psychological consequences, leading possibly to depression, anxiety,  death. 

Unfortunately the people making the decisions are, possibly like you, not affected by the ramifications of lack of finances. 

I do not disagree with what you wrote but I gave you the "like" for the State of Origin shirt 😎

Hopefully we will be getting more games soon.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Herd immunity is unlikely to occur based on some studies on the antibody levels in recovered individuals.  

 

The reality is this will come in waves, and keep coming, so we need to be able to take logical steps to manage it.  In the US, this means increasing airborne infection isolation room count along with ICU beds...  I am a little surprised/concerned by the delta in infection rates in the US and most other countries.  It is clear that testing is not happening at sufficient levels in many places, but there is more to it than that.

 

May we learn from this one...

Link to post
Share on other sites

On top of the estimated 80% that are getting 'mild' illness there are a hidden many that dont show any symptoms. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/many-people-may-already-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

 

 

Edited by metisdead
Video from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

From the start, every country should have moved ALL citizens likely to be vulnerable to secure accommodation, away from the younger members of their families. They should be given free TVs, exercise bikes, all the food they want delivered, and free iPads to maintain Facetime or Skype contact with their families and friends. No physical visits allowed, for the protection of the vulnerable.

Meanwhile, allow the rest of society to keep working or going to school.

It would have been a lot cheaper and saved more lives if we had done this properly from the start.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, donnacha said:

From the start, every country should have moved ALL citizens likely to be vulnerable to secure accommodation, away from the younger members of their families. They should be given free TVs, exercise bikes, all the food they want delivered, and free iPads to maintain Facetime or Skype contact with their families and friends. No physical visits allowed, for the protection of the vulnerable.

Meanwhile, allow the rest of society to keep working or going to school.

It would have been a lot cheaper and saved more lives if we had done this properly from the start.

 

Bingo!!

Someone with a level headed approach!

  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

Because he's an economist, not a medical expert, you answered your own question.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

Well put. Now back it up with some data.

What I expect;
but we will only have this data long after the end of this pandemic;
it remains to be seen whether we will have the actual figures or those obligatorily offered by the various governments.

Link to post
Share on other sites

        All these experts are going to get a bite in the b*m if South Korea is anything to go by, latest reports suggest 91 former CV patients have been diagnosed again with the virus, so its not going away yet.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

What a selfish post, of course you have money so if millions starve, doesn't matter, right ?

The doctors should heal the people, not destroy the economy.

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

 

This is for Thailand as of April 3.

Classification Cases Deaths Lethality
(%)
n (%) n (%)
Gender Male 1074 (54.30) 17 89.47 1.58
Female 827 (41.81) 2 10.53 0.24
Unknown or
Awaiting Confirmation
77 (3.89) - - -
Age 0-10 27 (1.37) 0 (0) (0)
11-20 49 (2.48) 0 (0) (0)
21-30 484 (24.47) 0 (0) (0)
31-40 462 (23.36) 1 5.26 0.22
41-50 349 (17.64) 2 10.52 0.57
51-60 256 (12.94) 8 42.11 3.13
61-70 144 (7.28) 1 5.26 0.69
71-80 54 (2.73) 5 26.32 9.26
81 or above 11 (0.56) 2 10.52 18.18
Unknown or
Awaiting Confirmation
142 (7.18) - - -
Total 1978 (100.00) 19 (100.00) (0.96)

 

Highest death rate at 12.94% is 51-60 yrs. 

 

Thanks to this table we can see what other countries also see, is that young people do not die from Covid;
we therefore wonder why the schools are closed.
and on closer inspection we see that up to the age of 50 there is practically no death;
so why stop a whole national economy for 3 dead!

There are an average of 60 to 70 a day on the road in Thailand and no one has yet had the brilliant idea of eliminating motor vehicles because of this.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is it that this "expert" says exactly the same as Bill Gates is saying for the last 3 month in 

every single interview he makes ???

 

The same Bill Gates that is the main sponsor to the WHO and the number one expert on vaccines nowadays.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

Thanks to this table we can see what other countries also see, is that young people do not die from Covid;
we therefore wonder why the schools are closed.
and on closer inspection we see that up to the age of 50 there is practically no death;
so why stop a whole national economy for 3 dead!

There are an average of 60 to 70 a day on the road in Thailand and no one has yet had the brilliant idea of eliminating motor vehicles because of this.

Answer:
 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...