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Expert offers roadmap to reopen Thai cities


webfact

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TDRI again. Didn't the boss get away with stealing someone else's academic work a while back? American lady - had to flee Thailand because he sicced his mates on her by all accounts... I'm sure the press was active on that a few years ago, except the Nation as I recall..

 

Good reputations are lost in a heartbeat, bad reputations are accumulated surprisingly easily.

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3 hours ago, tjo o tjim said:

Herd immunity is unlikely to occur based on some studies on the antibody levels in recovered individuals.  

 

The reality is this will come in waves, and keep coming, so we need to be able to take logical steps to manage it.  In the US, this means increasing airborne infection isolation room count along with ICU beds...  I am a little surprised/concerned by the delta in infection rates in the US and most other countries.  It is clear that testing is not happening at sufficient levels in many places, but there is more to it than that.

 

May we learn from this one...

 

 

Agreed.

 

But of course, we won't.

 

 

 

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As long as they apply social distancing I don't see why open-air bar beers and the deck chair vendors on the beach shouldn't be allowed to open again at an early stage. A lot of people, myself included, are really missing some social activity, just a chat from a safe distance apart and a beer or two. Nothing shared, and wearing face masks, of course, lol.

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"They should travel by ordinary, rather than air-con, buses in order to reduce risks of coming into contact with the virus"

 

So then open places should be better than closed places with air conditioning and recycled air.

 

The beer bars should open pretty early on then - at the same time as the small outdoor restaurants. 

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20 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

Because this guy knows that it is really the economic damage that is destroying the majority of lives... and not the virus. 

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21 hours ago, webfact said:

They should travel by ordinary, rather than air-con, buses in order to reduce risks of coming into contact with the virus.

Actually, Air con filters can be fitted with N95 rated filters and when maintained can actually clean the air as opposed to non filtered air. Buses, even with open windows encapsulate expired particles. Air con can actually filter those particles out. 

Edited by Tounge Thaied
spelling error
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23 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Something must be done. There are barely any cases here. 2500 total, with just over 30 deaths, and people are behaving like this is the final zombie apocalypse. It is beyond inane. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 150,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid.

 

OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

There's a problem with pointing out the low number of deaths in Thailand.  

 

Thailand will use this low number to demonstrate the success of locking the country down and switching off the lights.

 

Of course, to determine the true extent of the pandemic, much more testing would need to be done.

 

You think Thailand is overreacting. I heard a press briefing today out of New Zealand that 2 more people had died, bringing the tally to 4. Old people with underlying conditions, of course. They are locked down tight.

 

Low tallies will always be used as proof of success and a reason to continue lockdowns.

 

 

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1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

 

This is for Thailand as of April 3.

Classification Cases Deaths Lethality
(%)
n (%) n (%)
Gender Male 1074 (54.30) 17 89.47 1.58
Female 827 (41.81) 2 10.53 0.24
Unknown or
Awaiting Confirmation
77 (3.89) - - -
Age 0-10 27 (1.37) 0 (0) (0)
11-20 49 (2.48) 0 (0) (0)
21-30 484 (24.47) 0 (0) (0)
31-40 462 (23.36) 1 5.26 0.22
41-50 349 (17.64) 2 10.52 0.57
51-60 256 (12.94) 8 42.11 3.13
61-70 144 (7.28) 1 5.26 0.69
71-80 54 (2.73) 5 26.32 9.26
81 or above 11 (0.56) 2 10.52 18.18
Unknown or
Awaiting Confirmation
142 (7.18) - - -
Total 1978 (100.00) 19 (100.00) (0.96)

 

Highest death rate at 12.94% is 51-60 yrs. 

Greatest number of spreaders are in their 20s and 30s.

 

Edited by rabas
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52 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Something must be done.

You have perfectly summarized the situation.
One can legitimately ask the question: is this wanted by the hundred or two hundred families?

 

Sorry no link in english, only french and spanish 

 

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deux_cents_familles

 

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_doscientas_familias

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22 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

Without money, there is no health.

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22 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

It is unrealistic for the world to lockdown for a long period - there will be far more deaths caused by economic pain than the virus itself. I don't envy any politician who has to make the ultimate decision to get things back reopened. 

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1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Something must be done. There are barely any cases here. 2500 total, with just over 30 deaths, and people are behaving like this is the final zombie apocalypse. It is beyond inane. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat?

 

Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. 

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 150,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid.

 

OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

Absolutely right. Over 100,000 people have died but who cares. MONEY comes first. 150,000 deaths you say. Not much really. Should see that in the nxt couple of wks. Millions starving to death? Funny really how the CCP ideal of world dominance and the collapse of capitalism may actually end up with the collapse of communism in China and a more equatible system in the west. Who knows but will be interesting to see. Maybe WWIII will be the outcome.

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23 hours ago, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

I'm no expert either but no Covid 19 after 30 days might be the way to go. There's now a fear in China that the virus could come across from the Russian border side. Then there's the other countries still with the virus, it might take up to 2 years to clear Indon. 

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23 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Not just him, I think the majority of the world that has been put into forced lock down will be itching to get back to work/business... There will come a time when economic necessity, out weighs the  health risks !! 

Correct. Prolonging the lockdown 'cure' will be a disaster in terms of the well-being and livelyhoods of people all over the world.

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1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Absolutely right. Over 100,000 people have died but who cares. MONEY comes first. 150,000 deaths you say. Not much really. Should see that in the nxt couple of wks. Millions starving to death? Funny really how the CCP ideal of world dominance and the collapse of capitalism may actually end up with the collapse of communism in China and a more equatible system in the west. Who knows but will be interesting to see. Maybe WWIII will be the outcome.

Just bear in mind that in the UK alone 650,000 people die every year, while 750,000 are born.

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53 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Just bear in mind that in the UK alone 650,000 people die every year, while 750,000 are born.

And I'm sure people are still dying. Old age, cancer, heart attacks etc guess you need to add to that.

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45 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Many use this same argument. However, it does not hold water. Why? Because you had over a million Chinese tourists running around the country in December, and again in January, as this thing was blowing up in China. Nearly a million in February prior to the lockdown of Chinese, and an equal number of Europeans. All in close proximity. No social distancing. Mingling with Thais and others. If this thing were going to blow up, it would have blown up by now. You do not need to do massive testing. You only need to wait a week or two. If this was a cover up, they would have been outed online long ago. And the hospital lobbies, and streets would be littered with corpses. This is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse. Some seem to be hoping for that. Some seem to love the panic and uncertainty. Sorry to disappoint. The heat is devastating Covid in Thailand most other tropical countries as we speak. Brazil is the only one with over 5,000 cases, while it rages in the US and Europe. 650 cases in the past 8 days, and only 13 deaths. That is not a major outbreak. Not even close. We are quite safe here. 

Would be great if you were right. But, why on earth have they implement lockdown measure similar to those deployed in western Europe where the death toll is appalling? Maybe those who think it is propaganda are right. My wife has her own version, she reckons it killed the mobs and riots that were bound to develop earlier this year.

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1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Many use this same argument. However, it does not hold water. Why? Because you had over a million Chinese tourists running around the country in December, and again in January, as this thing was blowing up in China. Nearly a million in February prior to the lockdown of Chinese, and an equal number of Europeans. All in close proximity. No social distancing. Mingling with Thais and others. If this thing were going to blow up, it would have blown up by now. You do not need to do massive testing. You only need to wait a week or two. If this was a cover up, they would have been outed online long ago. And the hospital lobbies, and streets would be littered with corpses. This is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse. Some seem to be hoping for that. Some seem to love the panic and uncertainty. Sorry to disappoint. The heat is devastating Covid in Thailand most other tropical countries as we speak. Brazil is the only one with over 5,000 cases, while it rages in the US and Europe. 650 cases in the past 8 days, and only 13 deaths. That is not a major outbreak. Not even close. We are quite safe here. 

It is not an argument. Does everything need to be an argument?

 

I saw studies about how hot weather affects the SARS-CoV-2 long before you started ranting about it on here, but it's not the point.

 

I made a statement that irrespective of your theories, governments will use low death rates to justify their methods of mitigation and use them as a reason to continue lockdown.

 

You need to convince the Thailand government of their errors and you'll need a lot more than theories to do that. Good luck!

 

No one wants to take a chance that your theory is wrong, because that means people might die, and these people only have one life. It's not like you can set up an experiment using people like lab rats.

 

It's easy for you to sit back and relax, and theorize, but is it your father or mother at risk, or grandparents? You have to see it from the people's point of view. It's real people dying, but when you see numbers on a screen, the human element disappears.

 

 

 

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The S6HO(soi6 health organization) and the WSHO(walking street health organization have not yet elaborated on the current situation as it very fluid and mentioned a stern probe would be needed ,followed by a good old fashioned spanking.... 

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