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Expert offers roadmap to reopen Thai cities


webfact

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What some of the more callous members on here forget is that it is not a zero-sum game to trade off some deaths against the economic cost of shutdown.

At the present time the infection rate is contained to some 10s of thousands of people in Thailand (the official figures are of course an under-reporting, as they are in all countries), but this is a lot different to letting the virus infect across the whole community - if allowed unchecked then we have seen how transmissable this is, and Thailand would be looking at figures of 600,000 to 700,000 fatalities with many times that needing hospital care. This of course would overwhelm any health care provision but would also itself create a massive economic impact in loss of key personnel and business. This would also have a much longer lasting effect than a temporary shutdown, as it would drag on for many months.

 

One sector that the "expert" of the OP failed to address was the aviation and tourism sectors - which will be a key part of the economic recovery for Thailand due to the prominence of tourism for GDP - even when a country gets the infection under control internally, it will be loath to allow inward flights again for a very long time due to the risk of re-importing infections. So allowing shops and businesses to open will have no effect if there are still no customers spending, and so there has to be some other form of stimulus to encourage internal spending to replace the lost tourism.

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One: Professor Knut is totally discredited professionally.

Two: Crobe has it about right

Three: This does not end until there is a vaccine, period. So, opening and then closing and then opening and then closing will be the new normal until then. The horror has only just begun, as this reaches the poorer countries we will see unbelievable devastation. The world economy will not recover for many, many years. My prayers for the poor of the world.

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9 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

 

Thanks to this table we can see what other countries also see, is that young people do not die from Covid;
we therefore wonder why the schools are closed.
and on closer inspection we see that up to the age of 50 there is practically no death;
so why stop a whole national economy for 3 dead!

There are an average of 60 to 70 a day on the road in Thailand and no one has yet had the brilliant idea of eliminating motor vehicles because of this.

You have a lot of data, but seem to not be able to connect the dots. People who don't die in one age category give the virus to those that do die. See the pattern now as to why the schools are closed? Now, that wasn't so hard, was it? 

 

Also, do current car deaths increase exponentially if no action is taken? And that goes for heart attacks, suicides, murders  and all the other nuggets the memes love to include into the "more people died of (this) today than covid.

 

Your arguments were stale 4 weeks ago...

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This is a natural progression, and has been in the international news the past few weeks.

Will it work here is another question.  I’m not sure of the learning curve in Thailand, or how long people can focus and be vigilant.  The most basic laws are not even followed.

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On 4/10/2020 at 3:35 PM, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

At present the govt has approved only 1.8 million out of 24 million applicants for financial assistance.  He may very well know what he is talking about. And what do medical experts know about economic issues?

Edited by tlandtday
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On 4/10/2020 at 5:09 PM, JAG said:

Oh dear - a "road map". The last one took over four years to work through, and at the end of the process nothing much had changed!

So long as Pattaya Plod weren't involved in drawing it up!

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On 4/11/2020 at 9:06 AM, Sharp said:

What we do know is 80% will not even experience symptoms so let the work!!!

 

10 -15 % will get ill and recover ( Take sick leave )then can go back to work

 

Keep the hospitals for the patients that get extremely ill ,old ,pre existing etc.

 

The aftermath is going to be way worse than the virus  if the economy doesn't restart asap.

 

so how much does a Thai get IF ON SICK LEAVE ???

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On 4/10/2020 at 4:35 PM, keith101 said:

Why does an economist think he knows better than medical experts , all he seems concerned with is money and not so much the health and well being of the people .

He probably has NO idea, but can read/listen to news from overseas.

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On 4/10/2020 at 6:30 PM, Assurancetourix said:

 

Simply because he is right; everything he says is and has been verified;
countries that do not confine their inhabitants are doing well and above all will be doing much faster than the others.
The economies of countries where people are confined will find it very difficult to restart their factories.
Anyway, it is proven that 98% of infected people will not even realize it

Numbers I've seen indicate 25% to 50% - though it could be much higher, and we won't know until widespread antibody testing.

 

On 4/10/2020 at 6:30 PM, Assurancetourix said:

and on the 2% remaining the vast majority of those who will die are elderly to very elderly who already have 1 to 3 major problems in health ..
People who have been retired for many years.

Correct on this point.  Those "at risk," and those who care for them, are the ones who need to take the precautions.  Once we have antibody testing, people could be "cleared" to visit nursing-homes, etc in the West. 

 

But when you have multi-generation homes, this is not so simple.  Does one healthy member of the family stay home to care for the elderly, while all the others go live somewhere else?

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