Cm Has The Season Been Up Or Down

[Gonzo the Face]

Being close to the Chiang Mai business community, it would seem from all that I have seen to date, that this year the tourism industry and related hospitality industry numbers are greatly lower than that of the past several years...

Would some others out there who are connected with business in the area care to comment on whether their business annual numbers are up or down ??

Right now on Songkran Friday it seems that there are a lot fewer foreigners in town than usual.....

Sincere comments appreciated.

Gonzo

[Ta22]

well , chiangmai seen it share of low flow due to many reason , first is the coup , then is the strong baht and the haze ,

chaingmai had been making news for a while since last years . rather thailand is making the news .

mostly negative , and the bombing and killing in the south .

not everyone understand that chiangmai is like 1500km or more away from the bombing .

go ask some joe or harry on the street in other country some might think chiangmai is just beside bangkok .

or some where near the center or near phuket since the tsunami ..

if you look at the flow , since the tsunami - thailand more or less is like heading on a downhill slope with it mix stable reflection to the rest of the world .

it would take some time to get back to the par line .

while the bussiness get a low wave , thing seem not to be going cheaper , the oil price had went up , bringit along with all the rest of the product , many thin had become more expensive . but income don't seem to be going higher ,

then there is also restiction impose on night places . which in the past is 4 am .. and 2 am then 1 am .. and a blur line of not sure as and when the police is happy to close it .

overall . as a city grow more shop more hotel more store more this more that . but with less tourist , customer , the only way to go is sharing amoung more mouth to be feeded .

so i say ,

yeh is going downhill .

will it be better , when it low season enough it would have no place to go lower then up ..

the market have a special way to balance itself ,

only those who are good at what there do and willing to spend the time win .

good luck . chiangmai need it

[wadsy]

My girlfriend owns a tourist related business here (internet cafe) and turnover is DEFINATELY down compared to previous years. As Ta22 says, I think this can be atributed to a combination of factors: the political instablility, the bombings, the pollution here in the north, the visa regulation uncertainty and so on. We discussed only a few days ago about how there seems to be less farang around at this time of the year compared to oher years. It will be interesting to see how things pan out over the next 12mths........

[WaiWai]

I am not involved in the business scene but it would seem understandable that many tourists who did come to Thailand (despite all the other negative factors mentioned above) avoided Chiang Mai because of the pollution. After all, many residents, both foreign and Thai, left the area for this very reason.

Perhaps, apart from the assorted other negative factors, some tourists simply feel they have "done" Thailand ? There are so many, very inviting, places to visit in Asia now.

In the "General" sub-forum of Thai Visa, someone posted that there were fewer *Asian* tourists recently. It was a separate thread. I'll see if I can find it as I know that doing searches can be problematic.

See, too, the CM Mail article below :

Polluted skies still around-tourist numbers down

Saksit Meeesubkwang

The air pollution in Chiang Mai continues to affect hotel businesses, as well as the entire local travel industry.

Mr. Narong, President of Chiang Mai Chamber of Commerce explaining the facts.

Tourists fearing the hazardous effects of the poor air quality have stayed away as the number of visitors who have cancelled their bookings is running as high as 20 to 30%.

Ms. Watcharaporn Chongpowpan, Marketing Director of Chiang Mai Orchids Hotel, revealed that many tourist groups who had booked their rooms for 5 days had now asked to shorten their stays to only 2 days.

Business convention and meeting groups have also cancelled their programs, and even long-term visitors are down by 30% compared to their numbers before the crisis. Most have opted to travel to Phuket and Pattaya.

In addition, tourists fear that the pollution may linger through the Songkran water festival as hotel bookings citywide are already much lower for the Thai New Year celebrations.

Narong Thananuwat, President of Chiang Mai Chamber of Commerce, admitted that hotels, condotels, and businesses in Chiang Mai have been affected by the polluted air covering Chiang Mai for the past 20 days.

Long-term foreign businessmen have explained that they usually like the weather and atmosphere in Chiang Mai, but the pollution has forced them to change their plans until the problem is reversed.

When tourists cancel hotel rooms it affects the airline industry, restaurants, entertainment venues and shopping outlets. All have seen a slowdown in sales since the skies over Chiang Mai became a health hazard.

Narong said that the problem must be alleviated as soon as possible in order to restore confidence in the tourist industry. The government should seriously explore the problem and plan a long-term solution. Moreover, creating understanding by giving the real facts and information to tourists and visitors is also important. If the situation is not resolved quickly, Chiang Mai tourism will worsen to a critical level.

[WaiWai]

Here's the post from the "General Section" :

(asian) Tourists Turn Away From Thailand..., ...amid political uncertainty -several reports- Rating Rate Topic:

LaoPo

Tourists turn away from Thailand amid political uncertainty

Asian tourists have begun turning away from Thailand, official statistics show, prompting concern that holidaymakers might be avoiding the kingdom because of its continuing political woes.

The number of tourists arriving from East Asia dropped by 7,3% in the first two months of the year, compared with the same period in 2006, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said.

"Sensitive Asian tourists, from Japan, for example, have been scared away from Bangkok due to security concerns," said Pornthip Samerton, MD of travel agent Destination Asia.

more here:

http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?artic...nsight__escape/

Security fears keep Asian tourists away from Thailand

BANGKOK, APR 10 : Asian tourists made fewer trips to Thailand this year due to security concerns after New Year's Eve bombs killed three people in Bangkok, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).

East Asian arrivals fell 7.3 % in the first two months of this year from last, it said, raising concerns some holidaymakers may be avoiding the "Land of Smiles", where tourism accounts for 6% of the economy.

more here:

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_st...ntent_id=160733

Asian tourists wary of Thailand after bombs

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Asian tourists made fewer trips to Thailand this year due to security concerns after New Year's Eve bombs killed three people in Bangkok, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT)

East Asian arrivals fell 7.3 percent in the first two months of this year from last year, it said, raising concerns some holidaymakers may be avoiding the "Land of Smiles", where tourism accounts for 6 percent of the economy.

They accounted for about half of the visitors in the first two months of this year to a country which had a coup in September and faces an insurgency in the Muslim-majority south, in which more than 2,000 people have been killed in three years.

European were the second largest group at 35 percent.

more here:

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArtic...;archived=False

LaoPo

(there was only one, brief reply)

[WaiWai]

One other thought - it seems that quite a number of residents - again, both Thai and foreign - leave CM because of what happens during Song kran. It would follow that some tourists would avoid Chiang Mai during this period for the same reasons.

Edited April 13, 2007 by WaiWai

[cmsally]

From talking to quite a few people I would say numbers of both Thai and foreign tourists down.

Relying on my own memory, not too reliable as this is the first Songkran for me since 2003, definitely seems much quieter.

[Gonzo the Face]

I'm glad [or not so glad as the case may be] to see that many other of the longer stay people seem to agree that the season has been slower with fewer tourists than usual..

The hospitality business to which I am closest, indicates a 25 to 30 % shortfall from last year... that comes to me both as in revenue and in numbers of guest/customers.... This is calendar year 2007 vs 2006 year to date.

I would guesstimate that a very small fraction of this is due to the new immig regs....... My opinion is that it is a accummulation of things.

Some small amount due to the change in governments........ a larger portion due to the perceived danger of coming to Northeren Thailand and trying to breathe..... some small portion to the South Thailand Problems......and a very large part to the media coverage that today can and is flashed around the world almost instantly.....

Most of the seasoned travelers have enough common sense to check things out locally before venturing off, and of course all the travelers from last year , would not be coming back to Thailand again this year anyhow...... I think it is the new, first timers to

Thailand who are summing up all the difficulties and just plain deciding that "maybe Thailand, with all the difficulties I have read about, best be put off til another year, and besides my money will go further in........ wherever...

But this too shall Pass.......

Gonzo

[WaiWai]

I would guesstimate that a very small fraction of this is due to the new immig regs....... My opinion is that it is a accummulation of things.

Interesting. I had just been wondering about that aspect - whether it was possibly a bigger factor in the general economic sluggishness than many had thought, or not.

Thais I speak to (small sample only) do say it's a difficult time to get a job/do business. Not extravagant to begin with, they are certainly going to be cautious about spending during tougher times.

I hope we can see a stronger economy soon, but with a less extreme disparity in the distribution of the profits, more emphasis on development of skills and less reliance on tourist dollars, which will always be fickle. The social change that would involve seems enormous, though.

I'd also love to see the pollution problem seriously addressed.

Edited April 13, 2007 by WaiWai

[miltonbentley]

One thing that has not been mentioned is the Ratchaphurk effect. From November to February during the floral festival many overseas visitors simply could not get transport to Chiang Mai as the planes, trains and buses were booked up by Thai tourists especially at weekends.

I know of several people who had great trouble getting up here and others that simply gave up and went elsewhere when they couldn't travel to or from Chiang Mai on their chosen dates.

The result was that many businesses catering mainly to Farang trade suffered at what should have been peak season.

[Ulysses G.]

You are all looking in the wrong direction (except miltonbently).

The things that you have mentioned had some - but not a great affect on tourist dollars. The REAL problem this year was the Flower Festival and that hurt the tourist econmomy more than SARS, terrorism, The Bird Flu and pollution has hurt it in past years put together.

Recent pollution also lowered tourism drastically, but high season was pretty much already over except for a yearly spurt at Songkran that pretty much never came, so all together it didn't hurt that badly.

Tourist spending this year was down a lot, but not by natural causes. It happened because no one forsaw hotels being so full of frugal Thais that free-spending tourists just couldn't get a room during the height of high-season.

Let's hope that the local Government never sponsors something so self-destructive at that time of year again!

Edited April 13, 2007 by Ulysses G.

[WaiWai]

You are all looking in the wrong direction (except miltonbently).

The things that you have mentioned had some - but not a great affect on tourist dollars. The REAL problem this year was the Flower Festival and that hurt the tourist econmomy more than SARS, terrorism, The Bird Flu and pollution has hurt it in past years put together.

Recent pollution also lowered tourism drastically, but high season was pretty much already over except for a yearly spurt at Songkran that pretty much never came, so all together it didn't hurt that badly.

Tourist spending this year was down a lot, but not by natural causes. It happened because no one forsaw hotels being so full of frugal Thais that free-spending tourists just couldn't get a room during the height of high-season.

Let's hope that the local Government never sponsors something so self-destructive at that time of year again!

But I seem to think Gonzo is connected with the hotel/accomodation industry (?). If so, why was his business down ?

[Ulysses G.]

You are all looking in the wrong direction (except miltonbently).

The things that you have mentioned had some - but not a great affect on tourist dollars. The REAL problem this year was the Flower Festival and that hurt the tourist econmomy more than SARS, terrorism, The Bird Flu and pollution has hurt it in past years put together.

Recent pollution also lowered tourism drastically, but high season was pretty much already over except for a yearly spurt at Songkran that pretty much never came, so all together it didn't hurt that badly.

Tourist spending this year was down a lot, but not by natural causes. It happened because no one forsaw hotels being so full of frugal Thais that free-spending tourists just couldn't get a room during the height of high-season.

Let's hope that the local Government never sponsors something so self-destructive at that time of year again!

But I seem to think Gonzo is connected with the hotel/accomodation industry (?). If so, why was his business down ?

I have a few freinds in the hotel business and they were almost as dissapointed with this tourist season as the rest of us. Hotels don't only depend on the room rates. They need guests to use their services such as room service, laundry, the internet, massage, mini-bars, etc., but most Thais are far too savy to rely on the expensive prices in the hotel. Why pay 150 baht for dinner in the hotel dining room when there is a place across the street that is selling the same thing for 35 baht?

In short, the hotels filled their rooms, but didn't make money on anything else!

[Ta22]

almost forget to say that we have the famouse flood during the touristic peak season for the last 2 years , hope this year no flood

[Ulysses G.]

The floods are always during low season, but they don't help anything!

[Ta22]

The peak start during the rainy season , when tourist from arab country come to enjoy the rain .

but last two years it was flooded and alot of the middle east tour had been cancel so did the taiwan tourist

alot of off roads vistor from sweden and russia also been cancel due to the flood .

so not alway the walking tourist that make up the peak season .

anyway . hope it will be better

Edited April 14, 2007 by Ta22

[WaiWai]

In short, the hotels filled their rooms, but didn't make money on anything else!

Makes sense.

So I guess hotels need to stop assuming all their guests are stupid & lazy ! I would have thought *all* guests, Thai or not, knew it was a rip-off to drink from the mini-bar, etc., but I guess the number of times someone decides they cannot be bothered going across the street does add up.

In some way, just offering those "extras" (whether guests use them or not) must add to room prices for everyone. Perhaps they could stop offering these, bring room prices down a little and just direct guests to nearest internet bar/restaurant/etc. Now that I think about it, perhaps this is already happening. Last few hotels I have stayed in did not supply toothbrush & paste !

Anyway, back to topic ...

Edited April 14, 2007 by WaiWai

[Donnyboy]

You are all looking in the wrong direction (except miltonbently).

The things that you have mentioned had some - but not a great affect on tourist dollars. The REAL problem this year was the Flower Festival and that hurt the tourist econmomy more than SARS, terrorism, The Bird Flu and pollution has hurt it in past years put together.Recent pollution also lowered tourism drastically, but high season was pretty much already over except for a yearly spurt at Songkran that pretty much never came, so all together it didn't hurt that badly.

Tourist spending this year was down a lot, but not by natural causes. It happened because no one forsaw hotels being so full of frugal Thais that free-spending tourists just couldn't get a room during the height of high-season.

Let's hope that the local Government never sponsors something so self-destructive at that time of year again!

thats exactly right.

my g/f works in the night bazaar and I occassionally go to wonder around and basically hang out. During the flower festival, dec- feb, there were busloads of thais and very few farang tourists. When I asked the shopkeepers I knew if they were selling well or not they said no. But I said why not? And most replied Thai not spend money-just looking looking.

But of course, the night bazaar is geared mostly to sell to farang tourists.

Im sure the hotels and budget restaurants still did a good trade. A friend of my g/f owns a guest house and she said during the flower fest, she didnt want any thais due to the fact that the first lot that she did have in had 6 people in a room that was catered for 2

[Gonzo the Face]

Time for me to stick my 2 cents back in.....

I have to partially agree and partially disagree with UG and some of the others.

Good or bad, up of down, may really depend on what segment of the hosp/tourist business you are in....It may also depend on what level of that segment you are in...

I am in the hospitality/tourist business.... Guest House, Bar, Restaurant. I do get a lot of back packers and I do get a lot of those a little above the backpacker set. Our income is generated not only from rooms, food, beverage, but revenue to a large degree is generated from tours, treks, massage and the like or ancillary services.

The Royal Flora , good or bad....

Strangely, I found it both good and bad....

November, and December were very good for the room accommodation end...

January was the best month in 10 years, for rooms, both in revenue and room nights.... January is normally the best month of the year, but as I said , this January was the best on record.....

Now to the make up of the room rentals...... traditionally we run approximately 90% expat, 10% Thai...

This past period [Royal Flora] the Thai % age was slightly more than 20%.... the falang %age was made up of the slightly better economic level category.... I think this was probably the push down effect.....the mid price hotel rooms were taken up pretty much by the Bangkok Thai going to the Flora, and this left the mid range customer either to move up and in most cases out of the price affordability or to move downward into a guest house at a lower price.... and these rooms were hard to find as they were occupied by more of the Thai's who could not afford the upper levels of cost rooms, but still HAD to go to the RFE..

Room rentals was great...... now as the younger folks might say, the restaurant and bar business during this period SUCKED !!!

Not only were the better heeled falangs going out to better restaurants as they were now saving money on room costs, so they could splurge a little, but the Thai's in house were all on-the-street-eaters, who wanted to bring back their food and use my plates, glasses, etc. Which they did not once they found there was a corkage fee for their use.

Neither of these two economic groups were into the touring, trekking etc..... another it SUCKED for this segment of business.

Now with literally hundreds of the huge painted double-decker tour busses jamming up the streets about 18 -20 hours per day, the fast majority of the local food and drink business went to Hel*.....

The Royal Flora type of exhibition I think is a good thing and would like to see more of it...... but definitely not in what is the SEASON , when we are already usually full of tourists...... This Exhib. at this time of the year is the most idiotic scheduling thing I have ever seen...... In the low season it would be great........ in the high season its a disaster for the majority of tourism/hospitality related business other than maybe transport ..

Now we have [after flora] the myriad of smaller problems, as well as the overall world not being in the safest travel times, adding to the numbers that are definitely down ... now .... and for the year to date compared with past years....... date for date..... year for year....

But as Shakespeare said "The Sun Don't Shine On One Dogs Azz Forever" [that was Jimmy Bob Shakespeare]

OMHO maybe it was 3 cents worth..... Kataut

[Pantip]

Time for me to stick my 2 cents back in.....

I have to partially agree and partially disagree with UG and some of the others.

Good or bad, up of down, may really depend on what segment of the hosp/tourist business you are in....It may also depend on what level of that segment you are in...

Yes – a good explanation and prognosis by Gonzo, it seems that businesses that rely on the farang tourist trade have suffered even more so this year than the last two years – and they were bad enough.

The clientele in my business are 88% Thai and business has never been better. There is a message there some where. Mind you we are not in the hospitality business.

Another unexplainable is where are all the travelers who made up the 38% increase in air travel to and from CM over the past 12 months.

[Gonzo the Face]

Another unexplainable is where are all the travelers who made up the 38% increase in air travel to and from CM over the past 12 months.

I think it is a past government figure... need I say more..... probably from the TAT from a boss who was reading a Playboy Mag. at the time....... that number is thrown around in the mag quite frequently

[el jefe]

This won't make many of you happy. I'm certainly disappointed. Several months ago I heard that the tourism authority is planning a handicrafts exhibit on the Royal Flora grounds from Nov 2009 to Jan 2010. I guess the good news is that there is nothing planned for the next two winters.

Has anyone else heard anything about the handicrafts show?

[Ulysses G.]

This won't make many of you happy. I'm certainly disappointed. Several months ago I heard that the tourism authority is planning a handicrafts exhibit on the Royal Flora grounds from Nov 2009 to Jan 2010.

What absolute fools.

Hopefully, it won't catch on with the Thais.

[Gonzo the Face]

This won't make many of you happy. I'm certainly disappointed. Several months ago I heard that the tourism authority is planning a handicrafts exhibit on the Royal Flora grounds from Nov 2009 to Jan 2010. I guess the good news is that there is nothing planned for the next two winters.

Has anyone else heard anything about the handicrafts show?

You are correct.... doesn't make me happy..... but on the upside, we now know what happens when they do a busy season Expo... by experience .... and can now plan accordingly... some options would be 1]closing during the busy season and considering the low season as the new busy season..... or 2] maybe getting a job driving a Taxi Meter at the airport.....

On a more serious side , I think by having the experience of knowing the problem, it may not be eliminated , but somewhat eased by readjusting and advance planning..... maybe

[Ulysses G.]

You are correct.... doesn't make me happy..... but on the upside, we now know what happens when they do a busy season Expo... by experience .... and can now plan accordingly... some options would be 1]closing during the busy season and considering the low season as the new busy season..... or 2] maybe getting a job driving a Taxi Meter at the airport.....

[Donnyboy]

You are correct.... doesn't make me happy..... but on the upside, we now know what happens when they do a busy season Expo... by experience .... and can now plan accordingly... some options would be 1]closing during the busy season and considering the low season as the new busy season..... or 2] maybe getting a job driving a Taxi Meter at the airport.....

or perhaps open a somtum stall

[Gonzo the Face]

Would like to dust this one off in light of the article in the news yesterday about Thailand being in line for a 18 Billion windfall in the tourism sector....

When does this windfall start ??? Does anybody know ??

I would like to hear from UG and some of the others in business here in CM...... have you seen any increase in your year to year levels in the past 6 - 8 weeks since we were first discussing the topis?

My year on year //month on month numbers have shown this to be one of the worst periods since I have been keeping records...

Some of the others in business have reported the same.... the tourist numbers are surely down.... so where and when does this windfall start

Any input :

Gonzo

[miltonbentley]

Would like to dust this one off in light of the article in the news yesterday about Thailand being in line for a 18 Billion windfall in the tourism sector....

When does this windfall start ??? Does anybody know ??

I would like to hear from UG and some of the others in business here in CM...... have you seen any increase in your year to year levels in the past 6 - 8 weeks since we were first discussing the topis?

My year on year //month on month numbers have shown this to be one of the worst periods since I have been keeping records...

Some of the others in business have reported the same.... the tourist numbers are surely down.... so where and when does this windfall start

Any input :

Gonzo

Havve you got a link to the article Gonzo? Sounds like wild optimism to me.

[wadsy]

Would like to dust this one off in light of the article in the news yesterday about Thailand being in line for a 18 Billion windfall in the tourism sector....

When does this windfall start ??? Does anybody know ??

I would like to hear from UG and some of the others in business here in CM...... have you seen any increase in your year to year levels in the past 6 - 8 weeks since we were first discussing the topis?

My year on year //month on month numbers have shown this to be one of the worst periods since I have been keeping records...

Some of the others in business have reported the same.... the tourist numbers are surely down.... so where and when does this windfall start

Any input :

Gonzo

This year, the last four weeks since song kran particularly, have been terrible business wise and I don't see it getting any better considering the low season is starting. My girlfriend's business has dropped by about 40% and we are really worried about the lack of tourists compared to this time last year. The guest house across the road is just about empty, the bar owner just down the road says his business has dropped by 80%!!! My girlfriend was speaking to some Thai neighbours this afternoon and they told her that another guest house they know of has closed down permanently and everywhere is quiet. We are hoping it doesn't get worse.....

[cmsally]

Just about every person I talk to in all kinds of businesses say business is really bad. For tourism, especially bad since Songkran.

This time of year numbers are normally boosted by Singaporean tourists who seem to be on school holiday(?) I think.

Maybe put off by certain political events, who knows.

I also have heard in passing of some businesses closing down.

One thing I have noticed in the past couple of years talking to friends mostly from USA and UK is the huge increase in second ,third etc homes. For Americans mostly in US or Mexico and in the UK mostly Ireland, Spain, France etc.

I wonder is this putting a large dent in the long haul market?