Thailand's Covid-19 mortality rate among lowest in the world

[lkv]

5 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

660,000 PUI

Link?

[newnative]

4 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

testing is unimportant. 

 

what you don't see in Thailand unlike communist China and the USA and the rest of the world is social media with stories of nurses crying for help and totally overwhelmed with dead patents in the hallways on gurneys.   

 

dead bodies stacked up in trucks like in NYC and mass graves. 

 

that could not be hidden here. yes, some but not all. there are just too many cameras now and too many places to post it.  

 

so i would suggest everyone stop saying Thailand is lying about the numbers and start thinking about what the difference is. Many very good ideas why Thailand is not experiencing the pandemic the same way the rest of the world is. 

     I agree and well-said.  If we were looking at large numbers of sick and dying I think there would be more publicity.  Heck, there's plenty of publicity with the cases that do pop up.  Just today all the publicity with the flight attendant who may or may not have done her quarantine properly.  Seems like much ado about nothing but, still--lots of publicity.  When my Bangkok condo had a case the residents were immediately notified and kept informed.

     April 13th someone started a thread asking if anyone had the virus or knew of anyone with the virus.  Seems like it has sort of petered-out as the last response was on Thursday.  At the time I responded that I personally don't know anyone who has tested positive for the virus, or has become sick with the virus, or has died from the virus.  That included my Thai partner's large, extended Thai family.  Today, that is still the case.  

     An article I just saw today indicates that recent research is showing that the virus does not like heat, humidity, and sunlight. That has been mentioned before as a possibility but seems to be firming up as true.  Thailand, of course, has all three in abundance and that, perhaps, has been a big factor, among others, in keeping the cases manageable. 

     

[pacovl46]

4 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Thailand	2,700	28	47
Vietnam	268	0	0
Brunei	136	0	1
Cambodia	122	0	0
Myanmar	85	0	4
Laos	19	0	0

Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar,Laos have very low numbers and a total of 4 reported deaths.

So, some of you think they got together with Thailand and planned fake information using the same fake accountant?

How much those tin hats cost?

I live in La La land where we don’t have any SARS-CoV-2 infected at all, but we also don’t do any testing, but hey, who cares?! 

[pacovl46]

24 minutes ago, RPCVguy said:

From the article:

This is the type of data available globally and now internally for Thailand

Data as reported internationally is available at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
For ease of reference I've extracted and edited screen shots to show Thailand and the top several nations on the list.

I long doubted that we in Thailand were getting  clear information, and I still see too many neighbors interacting on my street with an air of casualness , but I also don't see or hear of bodies piling up and filling morgues at rates visible internationally.

Thailand has imposed a more extreme lockdown than many other nations. The checkpoints between and within provinces assure that... uniformly applied for 4-5 weeks as decreed will have all those who were infected either get sick and get treated OR pass through their infectious period while being asymptomatic. I've watched nations like Sweden resist rules for physical distancing, and Sweden's numbers now are growing rapidly. In the USA the different behaviors between states will reveal the problems of resisting self isolation - and prolong the problems for everyone as sloppy states will keep reinfecting more diligent ones.

The principles of a pandemic are simple, reduce physical interactions to reduce the spread of the disease... while awaiting treatment and or vaccine development. This virus has it's maximum infectiousness during the day BEFORE symptoms appear - if they appear. In Iceland and places where a high percentage of the population has been tested, nearly 50% of those testing positive are asymptomatic. Meanwhile in every location where physical distancing is not applied before clusters of people become infected, the spread of the disease threatens or succeeds in overwhelming the ability of hospitals to keep up.

Calling for freedom to travel while the society seeks to contain, identify, treat and eliminate the disease is the height of individual selfishness... besides being just plain foolish.

Exactly! I don’t understand why that is so difficult to understand! Why are there still people going “it’s tyranny, they infringe on my human rights, lockdown doesn’t work, testing is totally unimportant/unnecessary”, bla bla bla! 
 

Those people should all be put into one pot and infected! Once they have it, I wanna hear the song they sing then! 

Edited April 18, 2020 by pacovl46

[pacovl46]

10 minutes ago, newnative said:

     An article I just saw today indicates that recent research is showing that the virus does not like heat, humidity, and sunlight

Hmmm, let’s see, average temperature of the human body 37 degrees Celsius/98.6 Fahrenheit, plus the human body consists of 60% water. That’s seems very hot and definitely humid to me.

The only thing that seems likely to be true out of the three is UV- radiation. 

[BeltAndRoad]

23 minutes ago, RPCVguy said:

I long doubted that we in Thailand were getting  clear information, and I still see too many neighbors interacting on my street with an air of casualness , but I also don't see or hear of bodies piling up and filling morgues at rates visible internationally.

Seems you are suffering from Cognitive Dissonance, you should seek medical advice, and by medical i mean mental.

[NoComment]

If??!! the figures are correct well done to the hospital's, doctors and the good people of Thailand. My gf lives in Isan and so far no cases in her village.

Let's all hope and pray for a positive end to this invisible killing machine.

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, EricTh said:

How did Thailand calculate the 1.7%?

 

I think each country has different population size, the mortality should be divided by the number infected. Also population size needs to be taken into account.

 

One huge country such as China is equivalent to whole of Europe and USA together.

The definition of mortality rate is number of confirmed deaths divided population x 100.Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) is number of confirmed deaths divided by number of confirmed cases x 100.The two definitions are often confused,the 1.7% is Thailand's Case Fatality Rate.

Thailand's confirmed deaths 47 divided by confirmed cases 2733 =0.01719....times 100=1.7% CFR

This doesn't take into consideration of undetected mild and asymptomatic cases and doesn't give a true picture of the real numbers.

Edited April 18, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[sambum]

6 hours ago, Yadon Toploy said:

Test few, and make the criteria for testing very narrow and the results will be low.

 

Hire a PR firm to trumpet the success.

 

Simples.

TAT's doing nothing much at the moment - I'm sure they could make the results look good? Oh, sorry, they will only talk in terms of  "% INCREASES on the previous month", and we don't want that!

[PerkinsCuthbert]

Plain common sense and long experience of the Thai way of doing things should tell us that the figures are wrong somewhere. However, 'tis amazing what a light dusting of Thainess can achieve.

[Silencer]

I don't know what to believe....but I don't see people lining up at any of the three hospitals I pass regularly, one designated for COVID patients, nor bodies littering social media. So, I will say whether by luck, climate, or good policy and medicine, Well done Thailand!  When can I go out for a drink?

[Max69xl]

7 hours ago, Toany said:

It is relative to the amount of testing done.  The government has already stated that it cannot afford mass testing.

The amount of tests have so far been ridiculously low compared to many other countries in both Asia and Europe.

[Timwin]

US southern states are also not having major epidemics like New York or New Jersey except Louisiana (they had Mardi Gras with a lot of "close contacts"). Florida is already opening some of the beaches. This virus, like all the other coronaviruses, is very temperature sensitive.

 

Singapore has now an epidemic in crowded dormitories, full of foreign work permit holders, crammed into small rooms. 

[RPCVguy]

17 minutes ago, BeltAndRoad said:

Seems you are suffering from Cognitive Dissonance, you should seek medical advice, and by medical i mean mental.

No, my statement was perhaps unclear. My direct observation is limited by the rural location of my home. (I live in a rural area of Lampang.) That's why I added "but I also don't see or hear of bodies piling up and filling morgues at rates visible internationally."
I can supplement that beyond the very low case count for Lampang I've observed high diligence by the hospital workers during a trip I made a month ago.
Despite their care, and despite reports of roadblocks I've not sampled, the people of my neighborhood still go from one home to another. They do it less, and maybe they do it within family units I don't know. (even as the degree of non-neighborhood interaction is likely low.) It is not at the degree of most years, but it still happens.
Conclusion - regarding my neighborhood - so far the people have been lucky.

Being insulting as to cognitive dissonance was not necessary, nor accurate.

[Unify]

Smokers are an estimated 1.4 times more likely to have severe symptoms, and ,2.4 times more likely to need a ventilator, ICU, or die from Covid-19 based on linted data.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7083240/

 

There's limited data on Covid-19, but smokers are about twice as likely to get the flu, and have higher mortality rates. Smoking had long been known to impede immune system responses and cause problems in a number of respiratory diseases, if not cause them outright.

[Surasak]

7 hours ago, petermik said:

Hence the term "Amazing Thailand"......miracles do happen you know

Maybe, but that jar of water is still water. How long do I have to wait?

[lkv]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

 

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

[mr mr]

4 hours ago, Virt said:

I think we have to close all borders worldwide until a vaccine is ready.

good thing you're not in charge.

[FarFlungFalang]

4 minutes ago, lkv said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

 

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

Good find and good to hear the anti body tests are being carried out and early signs suggesting it's not as deadly as is currently believed.It may just be the flu after all!Sorry couldn't help but toss that last bit in to stir the pot!I must have pot on the mind or at least I wish I had some pot in my mind.

[rickb]

Thailand's mortality rate of 1.7% is actually quite good.  Many people are saying that Thailand has had only very limited testing.  But, if there was more testing and more cases of Coronavirus were found, the mortality rate would only get better, assuming the number of deaths doesn't change.  Others are saying that if, in fact, these numbers are correct then there was no reason for quarantines and closed businesses.  But, perhaps quarantines and closed businesses are the reasons for these low figures.  I think the main reason for Thailand's success is the "spread out" nature of the country.  Except for a few large cities where large populations are crowded into small spaces, most of the country is vast farmland with very low population density, thus making it difficult to spread the virus easily.  Plus, as much as I hate to admit it, the closing of airports and border crossings to incoming people from other countries must have helped to reduce the spread of the virus by those entering Thailand already sick with the virus.  If I was to be suspicious of anything reported, I would question the validity of the actual number of deaths attributed to Coronavirus.  If that number is inaccurate, then the mortality rate is also questionable.

[lkv]

2 hours ago, BeltAndRoad said:

That you felt it necessary to highlight the fact your being sarcastic doesn't say much for your target audience.

What do you want me to say? That if it carries on like this, I see Bangkok under full lockdown in a week or two?

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, pacovl46 said:

Hmmm, let’s see, average temperature of the human body 37 degrees Celsius/98.6 Fahrenheit, plus the human body consists of 60% water. That’s seems very hot and definitely humid to me.

The only thing that seems likely to be true out of the three is UV- radiation. 

... and the amulets...

[mrfill]

43 minutes ago, lkv said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

 

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

And the one done in Germany showed an infection rate of 15%. Quite a bit short of herd immunity...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

[lkv]

15 minutes ago, mrfill said:

And the one done in Germany showed an infection rate of 15%. Quite a bit short of herd immunity...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-antibody-test-in-german-town-shows-15-per-cent-infection-rate-0-4pc-death-rate

Good article. So basically in that particular German town, 15% of the population was estimated to be infected, whereas in that particular US town, 50-70% were estimated to be infected.

 

More studies need to be done on regions, and centralised at national levels. Every country  and every region in a country would have achieved a different level of immunity.

 

The issue most countries are having, is at what cost, i.e. deaths vs economic damage.

Edited April 18, 2020 by lkv

[Kks88]

6 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Thailand	2,700	28	47
Vietnam	268	0	0
Brunei	136	0	1
Cambodia	122	0	0
Myanmar	85	0	4
Laos	19	0	0

Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar,Laos have very low numbers and a total of 4 reported deaths.

So, some of you think they got together with Thailand and planned fake information using the same fake accountant?

How much those tin hats cost?

Mate thais openly eat from the same bowl, drink from the same cups none of this has stopped especially rurally. Public transport is filthy. Bangkok is as overpopulated as New York. Markets still overflowing. Social distancing is not happening outside of bkk. There is no way covid has somehow mostly skipped Thailand especially when the government openly welcomed Chinese tourists when it was all kicking off.
 

The numbers are clearly underreported. It is not a conspiracy it is common sense

[mrfill]

2 minutes ago, lkv said:

Good article. So basically in that particular German town, 15% of the population was estimated to be infected, whereas in that particular US town, 50-70% were estimated to be infected.

 

More studies need to be done on regions, and centralised at national levels. Every country  and every region in a country would have achieved a different level of immunity.

 

The issue most countries are having, is at what cost, i.e. deaths vs economic damage.

It does show how variations can be enormous. What we have to realise is that this is a brand new virus and we don't know enough about it yet to make any informed decisions. You can have an 'educated guess' but it is still a guess. No-one actually knows.

As for the mass immunisation, consider that the common cold is a coronavirus and no-one has yet come up with a fix after decades of effort. Don't expect anything reliable in a few weeks.  

[ParkerN]

2 hours ago, rickb said:

Thailand's mortality rate of 1.7% is actually quite good

Thailand's reported mortality rate. There are 3 good reasons not to attach any credence to the reported figures. 

 

1. The government doesn't have any idea what the infection rate is, was, or will be. The Thailand government claims not to be able to afford widespread screening, so any number you can pluck out of thin air in this regard will be as good as (or as bad as) any other number. I believe that the Thai government is reporting numbers which it believes will be accepted, rather than numbers which it believes are true.

 

2. There is a long and proud history in Thailand of doctors putting a secondary disease  on death certificates rather than a primary cause. It has been custom and practice for a long time for Thai doctors to frequently simply enter "Heart failure" on a death certificate because, almost by definition, a failure in the beating of a heart precipitates death. It's easier and less complicated than really trying to discover the cause of many deaths, and do remember that Thai doctors are Thais, probably wit a Thai education, with all that implies. This is not Europe or the USA, both of which has it's own problems with and inconsistencies of medical quality.

 

3. The Thai government has no idea whatever of the significance of numbers of deaths occurring outside of hospitals. Somchai, who has been feeling unwell for a day or two, and he has taken to his bed will die. The Local medic certifies death as required on the basis of what are often lamentably poor clinical qualifications; poor Somchai will be cremated and sit in a pot on the mantelpiece; the family will spend the insurance money, confident that the medical diagnosis he got of having died from his bunions, is the correct one and will not be questioned. That's how it happens in the Third World.

 

The bottom line is that the numbers produced by the first world are deeply unsatisfactory, and are generally recognised to be so. If that is the case in the first world, what can the Third World hope for except more of the same? One thing is for sure, Mr Prayuth will not go to any great lengths to report the real numbers in Thailand, for fear that the people will no longer love him, and if that happens, his income stream will dry up quite quickly.

 

If you were in his position and had his circs, what would *you* do when every country has it's own disaster to cope with?

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by ParkerN

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, lkv said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

 

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

Yeah. Antibody test results are now popping up and this seems common. It could be entirely feasible a large portion of Thais already got it from the original Wuhan tourists and there is a form of herd immunity in place. There certainly is a blaring discrepancy between the air travel patterns prior to shutdown and the official infection numbers.

 

400-600 baht a pop for a test, I haven't heard anything about the PTT/MIT/co test being used and indeed usurpers are saying it's not useful to test. A complete show of stupidity, because if a lot of Thais already have antibodies, the lockdowns could be opened up. Instead, keep on not testing and causing economic havoc. We need mass testing to get the data that is needed for good policy decisions.

Edited April 18, 2020 by DrTuner

[sucit]

Who would not get better? You got some of the best hospital food in the world, and the nurses are not bad for morale. 

[MrHerb]

5 hours ago, BeltAndRoad said:

Possibly, one thing i know for certain they are a damn sight healthier than Australians.

Yeh? So the OP is boasting about Thailand only having a Covid-19 mortality rate of 1.7 per cent.  In Australia, as of today we have 96 deaths out of 6565 cases, so a mortality rate of 1.05%.  Looks much better than Thais 1.7%.  And Australia is testing at a very high rate so the figures are based more on fact than fiction.  Thais a damn sight healthier than Australians? Where do you get that idea from?