BOT warns of even tougher second quarter for Thai economy

[snoop1130]

BOT warns of even tougher second quarter for Thai economy  

By The Nation

 

Don Nakornthab

 

The Thai economy deteriorated last month, with worse to come in the second quarter, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) warned on Thursday (April 30).

 

Economic indicators for March showed a decline from February, said Don Nakornthab, senior BOT director.

 

Exports, private investment, household consumption and tourism were hit hard last month as the spread of the Covid-19 became more acute, he said.

 

Exports fell by 2.2 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, exports value contracted by 6.5 percent, largely due to weak of global demand as a result of the Covid-19 fallout, he said. BOT export statistics differ from those of the Commerce Ministry, which rely on Customs Department figures. The BOT does not count tanks shipped to Thailand for military exercises, or the return of leased aircraft to their owners abroad by Thai airlines. Customs Department statistics registered export growth of 4.17 percent last month.

 

However, after severe contraction in February, the value of imports in March expanded by 4.4 percent year-on-year, partly due to China reopening businesses. Excluding gold, imports expanded by 1.3 percent, said Don.

 

Private consumption dropped from the same period last year in almost all spending categories, as supporting factors including household income, employment and consumer confidence weakened.

 

The Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) contracted by 11.2 percent year-on-year, pressured by weakening domestic and external demand, and drought in Thailand. Private investment indicators contracted sharply from the same period last year, with the private investment index fell 7.8 percent in March. Large numbers of workers also lost their jobs.

 

Farmers hit by drought saw their real income decline, leading to a drop in household consumption. Tourists arrivals plunged by 76.4 percent to 819,000, after falling 42 percent in February. Tourist arrivals in April could fall by 99 percent, Don warned, amid government lockdown restrictions including a ban on incoming flights till the end of May, mandatory quarantine for all arrivals, and curfew. 

 

Only government spending remained positive in March, he said. Public spending (excluding transfers) rose for the first time in five months, due to disbursement of the 2020 budget.

 

“Contraction of the economy in the first quarter from January to March brings expectations of more of the same in April followed by a much larger contraction in the whole of the second quarter from April to June,” he warned.

 

The Bt1-trillion government stimulus package, worth 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), should help shore up the economy this year and next. Meanwhile the central bank’s loan facility to support small and medium-sized businesses is also relatively large, at 3 percent of GDP. Though the large stimulus packages will aid the economy, the BOT still forecasts a 5.3 percent drop in GDP this year before growth returns in 2021.

 

The challenge is how to channel the stimulus funds quickly to those who need them, said Don.

 

He predicted a U- or V-shaped recovery, adding that an L-shaped economic scenario was possible but unlikely.

 

Thailand’s recovery would largely depend on how the global economy rebounded. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) forecasts global GDP will sink by 2.5 percent – or 8.8 percent in the worst case scenario – this year, before rebounding to grow at 5.9-7.4 percent next year. The WTO also projected world trade volume will fall by 12.9 percent, or 31.9 percent in the worst case scenario, before recovering in 2021 to grow at between 21.3 percent and 24 percent.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30387086

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-30

 

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[Nong Khai Man]

So When is the Baht Gonna Sink ??

[kevin612]

Stop complaining, all countries are suffering financially. Help your people, period.

[Thunder26]

Yawn... Doesn't the government play a role in this, making the things worse? Sort it out with the government.

[rasmus5150]

5 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Tourists arrivals plunged by 76.4 percent to 819,000, after falling 42 percent in February. Tourist arrivals in April could fall by 99 percent, Don warned, amid government lockdown restrictions including a ban on incoming flights till the end of May, mandatory quarantine for all arrivals, and curfew. 

He will never get a job with TAT, because he is speaking the truth.

And the truth hurts.......

[alant]

no <deleted>

[phkauf]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He predicted a U- or V-shaped recovery, adding that an L-shaped economic scenario was possible but unlikely.

No chance at all for a V shaped recovery and U is unlikely as well. Thailand's economy is highly dependent on other countries (export and tourism) and as such it will be lagging those economies in any recovery. L shape is the scenario I would bet on. 

[hotchilli]

14 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

So When is the Baht Gonna Sink ??

Not in our lifetime.

[Henryford]

14 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

So When is the Baht Gonna Sink ??

When the Western countries stop printing trillions of monopoly money.

[uli65]

I have very good pension for the last 10 years, I feel very comfortable with the monopoly money and the printing press,  much better than the poverty in this country.

maybe the mighty baht fanclub can tell me the sense of this massive overvalued currency??

the millions of poor people do not have any advantage of this manipulated currency.

this bubble will crash. the government is hard working to bring the baht down with all their nonsense

 

 

[Misterwhisper]

1 hour ago, phkauf said:

No chance at all for a V shaped recovery and U is unlikely as well. Thailand's economy is highly dependent on other countries (export and tourism) and as such it will be lagging those economies in any recovery. L shape is the scenario I would bet on. 

You mean "L" like in... ?

 

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Misterwhisper

[Grumpy John]

I am not prepared to accept any further hardship.  Yesterday my B-in-L, his old granny wife and her good for nothing kid Moved in...and I am not happy!  What makes matters worse is nOne of them registered for the 5000 baht!   Shiyat for brains! ????

 

 

[Solidpoo]

10 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

I am not prepared to accept any further hardship.  Yesterday my B-in-L, his old granny wife and her good for nothing kid Moved in...and I am not happy!  What makes matters worse is nOne of them registered for the 5000 baht!   Shiyat for brains! ????

 

 

free rent, free food.. they're never gonna leave ha ! 

[Misterwhisper]

17 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

I am not prepared to accept any further hardship.  Yesterday my B-in-L, his old granny wife and her good for nothing kid Moved in...and I am not happy!  What makes matters worse is nOne of them registered for the 5000 baht!   Shiyat for brains! ????

 

 

Welcome to the realities of marrying into a Thai family... where yours ALWAYS and at all times also is regarded as THEIRS, yet theirs NEVER is also yours. I understand your nickname now. Under different circumstances you'd probably be a nice, jovial John. LOL

 

(I apologize for my cynicism.)

Edited May 1, 2020 by Misterwhisper

[DrTuner]

Better keep the lockdowns so the peasants can't get out with pitchforks.

[DrTuner]

Quote

He predicted a U- or V-shaped recovery, adding that an L-shaped economic scenario was possible but unlikely.

More like a falling sword type of rapid descent into darkness.

[DrTuner]

17 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

So When is the Baht Gonna Sink ??

After all the assets have been moved out.

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, Grumpy John said:

I am not prepared to accept any further hardship.  Yesterday my B-in-L, his old granny wife and her good for nothing kid Moved in...and I am not happy!  What makes matters worse is nOne of them registered for the 5000 baht!   Shiyat for brains! ????

 

 

Thus showing the benefits of living 400 km away form your other halves relatives

[Caldera]

May it sink the Baht.

 

[holy cow cm]

1 hour ago, Grumpy John said:

I am not prepared to accept any further hardship.  Yesterday my B-in-L, his old granny wife and her good for nothing kid Moved in...and I am not happy!  What makes matters worse is nOne of them registered for the 5000 baht!   Shiyat for brains! ????

 

 

Make them go out and find you a big bottle of whiskey and try to forget. Now Grumpiest John

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, uli65 said:

I have very good pension for the last 10 years, I feel very comfortable with the monopoly money and the printing press,  much better than the poverty in this country.

maybe the mighty baht fanclub can tell me the sense of this massive overvalued currency??

the millions of poor people do not have any advantage of this manipulated currency.

this bubble will crash. the government is hard working to bring the baht down with all their nonsense

 

 

 

You should use this time to educate yourself. Google Knowledge, The Economist, Bloomberg, CNBC, FT, Wall Street Journal, and many many more sources of information are readily available.

 

Learn how the foreign exchange markets and dealers work; how nations' wealth, economies, credit rating, investment attractiveness are judged.

 

Learn what "currency manipulation" is, how it's identified and what the repercussions are.

 

Then you'll have a chance to understand.

[jmccarty]

The reaction of the spread of the Covid-19 became more acute.

[uli65]

no thanks, I do not need this mainstream BS.

I have avoided this propaganda all my life, thats why I have nearly 2000 Euro pension monthly now.

happy labor day

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

I am not prepared to accept any further hardship.  Yesterday my B-in-L, his old granny wife and her good for nothing kid Moved in...and I am not happy!  What makes matters worse is nOne of them registered for the 5000 baht!   Shiyat for brains! ????

 

 

Think about it.

They really dont have Syiyat for Brains at all.

Why register for a miserly 5,000 Baht from the Gov,t, when you and your wallet are close by.

Easy option if you allow it to happen.

[Misterwhisper]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Better keep the lockdowns so the peasants can't get out with pitchforks.

You forgot to mention the torches that are an indispensable addition to the pitchforks. No self-respecting peasant mob is complete without them.

  

 

[realfunster]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He predicted a U- or V-shaped recovery, adding that an L-shaped economic scenario was possible but unlikely.

 

Thanks for that gem of wisdom, narrowed it down to just 3 options then. Where do they find these idiots ?.????

 

Second quarter is going to be much worse across the board. Tourism was impacted earlier but most businesses started reducing work after mid-March. April was a write-off.

 

Thailand has got away with only a light covid outbreak and had a great opportunity to get back up and running quickly but they have really have stolen defeat from the jaws of victory by only gradually winding down restrictions through to mid-June.

 

It will be the average working people that suffer.

[brokenbone]

20 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

So When is the Baht Gonna Sink ??

yes, this is when it comes to it, what we really do wanna know

[overherebc]

22 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Thus showing the benefits of living 400 km away form your other halves relatives

Remibds me of a srory told by a friend years ago.

Looked out and saw a pickup outside the gate and asked his wife 'who are they'? 

Oh it's mother father and two brothers come to stay for a few days. 'How much do you think it cost them to get here he asked, oh about 3000 or 4000 baht.

Handed his wife 8000 and said that should get them home plus good food on the way and they can come back when I invite them.

Never saw them again.

[Yadon Toploy]

23 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

You should use this time to educate yourself. Google Knowledge, The Economist, Bloomberg, CNBC, FT, Wall Street Journal, and many many more sources of information are readily available.

 

Learn how the foreign exchange markets and dealers work; how nations' wealth, economies, credit rating, investment attractiveness are judged.

 

Learn what "currency manipulation" is, how it's identified and what the repercussions are.

 

Then you'll have a chance to understand.

Did you do your research before supporting the coup?

[Grumpy John]

On 5/1/2020 at 1:57 PM, RichardColeman said:

Thus showing the benefits of living 400 km away form yourwre other halves relatives

They were in Samut Prakan....so you made a pretty good guess How far away they were.  Someone else said we will never get rid of them....maybe that's grounds for a divorce in Thailand???