Coronavirus spread accelerates again in Germany

[Logosone]

Headline news in Zeit: A high ranking civil servant in the German Interior Ministry, responsible for crisis management, including water supply, internet and electricity, has sent a report to all regional governments, the office of the Chancellor and the Coronavirus crisis management office, in which he explains how the coronavirus danger has been greatly overestimated, that the measures taken involve much more collateral damage than the virus would cause. He estimates thousands have died due to not getting operations in hospitals. He says the government has failed.

 

His head of office rejected his paper, so did the office of Horst Seehofer and for his troubles he is being accused as conspiracy theorist.

 

Quite extraordinary that a well paid civil servant would risk his pension to call out the errors in Covid19 management.

 

In Germany all opponents of the extreme Covid19 measures are tarred with the 'extremist' label, for daring to criticise the government.

 

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2020-05/corona-pandemie-bekaempfung-massnahmen-innenministerium-verschwoerungstheorien-regierungsrat

[unblocktheplanet]

14 hours ago, Crazy Alex said:

Stay inside if you think you're at risk.

That's where I'll stay for the foreseeable future, thanks. 18 months to 2 years, if necessary.

[stevenl]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Headline news in Zeit: A high ranking civil servant in the German Interior Ministry, responsible for crisis management, including water supply, internet and electricity, has sent a report to all regional governments, the office of the Chancellor and the Coronavirus crisis management office, in which he explains how the coronavirus danger has been greatly overestimated, that the measures taken involve much more collateral damage than the virus would cause. He estimates thousands have died due to not getting operations in hospitals. He says the government has failed.

 

His head of office rejected his paper, so did the office of Horst Seehofer and for his troubles he is being accused as conspiracy theorist.

 

Quite extraordinary that a well paid civil servant would risk his pension to call out the errors in Covid19 management.

 

In Germany all opponents of the extreme Covid19 measures are tarred with the 'extremist' label, for daring to criticise the government.

 

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2020-05/corona-pandemie-bekaempfung-massnahmen-innenministerium-verschwoerungstheorien-regierungsrat

His paper was rejected by his boss but he sent it out anyway to many others, that's what he is accused of.

[tlock]

8 hours ago, hhinhh said:

Merkel was always someone to wait and do nothing. This happened also with COVID19 until there was no other way that to do something. Then she looked at the pols and found the leader with the strongest restrictions is loved mostly. So she ordered a nearly toal lock-down. Now that people are impatient and want their freedom she opens almost everything. The CORVID19 situation at total lock-down and opening is almost the same. There is no wise management in this crisis keeping all aspects in mind and searching for balanced ways. Additionally there was a poor performance in organizing needed protection products. How can you ask people to ware facemask if there are not any? Now I am watching what happens. According to her the provinces with more than 50 cases per 100,000 must go back to strong restrictions, neighbour provinces not. That is going to be interesting.

 

It almost sounds like democracy!  

 

Merkel listening to the opinions of the people who elected her?  Letting the proletariat make their own choices?  What a horrible leader...

 

H1N1 infected 700 million to 1.6 billion people.  We got a long way to go.  Don't forget this is the first time in human history we thought that government policies could outwit nature:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Comparisons_to_other_pandemics_and_epidemics

 

Major modern influenza pandemics^[206][207]

Name	Date	World pop.	Subtype	Reproduction rate[208]	Infected (est.)	Deaths worldwide	Case fatality rate	Pandemic severity
1889–90 flu pandemic[209]	1889–90	1.53 billion	Likely H3N8 or H2N2	2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[209]	20–60%[209] (300–900 million)	1 million	0.10–0.28%[209]	2
1918 flu[210]	1918–20	1.80 billion	H1N1	1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)	33% (500 million)[211] or >56% (>1 billion)[212]	17[213] – 100[214][215] million	2–3%,[212] or ~4%, or ~10%[216]	5
Asian flu	1957–58	2.90 billion	H2N2	1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)	>17% (>500 million)[212]	1–4 million[212]	<0.2%[212]	2
Hong Kong flu	1968–69	3.53 billion	H3N2	1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)	>14% (>500 million)[212]	1–4 million[212]	<0.2%[212]	2
2009 flu pandemic[217][218]	2009–10	6.85 billion	H1N1/09	1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)	11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[219]	151,700 – 575,400[220]	0.03%[221]	1
Typical seasonal flu[t 1]	Every year	7.75 billion	A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ...	1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)	5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[222] 3–11% or 5–20%[223][224] (240 million–1.6 billion)	290,000 – 650,000/year[225]	<0.1%[226]	1

Edited May 11, 2020 by tlock
add link

[Logosone]

22 minutes ago, stevenl said:

His paper was rejected by his boss but he sent it out anyway to many others, that's what he is accused of.

Yes, that's right, they're accusing him of using official interior ministry notepaper to spread his own theories about the crisis.

 

But the weird thing is, that is his job, to work on crisis management.

 

 

[Logosone]

5 minutes ago, tlock said:

 

It almost sounds like democracy!  

 

Merkel listening to the opinions of the people who elected her?  Letting the proletariat make their own choices?  What a horrible leader...

 

H1N1 infected 700 million to 1.6 billion people.  We got a long way to go.  Don't forget this is the first time in human history we thought that government policies could outwit nature:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic#Comparisons_to_other_pandemics_and_epidemics

 

Major modern influenza pandemics^[206][207]

Name	Date	World pop.	Subtype	Reproduction rate[208]	Infected (est.)	Deaths worldwide	Case fatality rate	Pandemic severity
1889–90 flu pandemic[209]	1889–90	1.53 billion	Likely H3N8 or H2N2	2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[209]	20–60%[209] (300–900 million)	1 million	0.10–0.28%[209]	2
1918 flu[210]	1918–20	1.80 billion	H1N1	1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)	33% (500 million)[211] or >56% (>1 billion)[212]	17[213] – 100[214][215] million	2–3%,[212] or ~4%, or ~10%[216]	5
Asian flu	1957–58	2.90 billion	H2N2	1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)	>17% (>500 million)[212]	1–4 million[212]	<0.2%[212]	2
Hong Kong flu	1968–69	3.53 billion	H3N2	1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)	>14% (>500 million)[212]	1–4 million[212]	<0.2%[212]	2
2009 flu pandemic[217][218]	2009–10	6.85 billion	H1N1/09	1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)	11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[219]	151,700 – 575,400[220]	0.03%[221]	1
Typical seasonal flu[t 1]	Every year	7.75 billion	A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ...	1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)	5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[222] 3–11% or 5–20%[223][224] (240 million–1.6 billion)	290,000 – 650,000/year[225]	<0.1%[226]	1

You're missing the point, Merkel is an unprincipled go where the wind blows leader is what that poster was saying, and he's right.

 

Of course it's also the case that governments don't stop pandemics, never have and never will. 

[Sametboy2019]

2 hours ago, unblocktheplanet said:

That's where I'll stay for the foreseeable future, thanks. 18 months to 2 years, if necessary.

Each to their own. What a life! Live everyday like it's your last used to be the popular saying.

[Cryingdick]

1 hour ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Each to their own. What a life! Live everyday like it's your last used to be the popular saying.

 

If everybody felt the way he does and did the same thing there wouldn't be anyway to stay inside for 2 years. If you have a pension and this happens kiss that goodbye. Cash you say? haha not worth the paper it is printed on in that scenario. People have to go out to produce the things that make life possible.

 

If the virus is just going to spike every time lockdowns are lifted staying locked down is pointless. It's like a bad zombie movie, you are locked inside and as time goes on the zombies are still there. Respect to the people that take the risk to be guinea pigs for the weak and cowardly that say they are stupid. Hopefully those that are first reap the greatest rewards.

 

 

[Sujo]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that's right, they're accusing him of using official interior ministry notepaper to spread his own theories about the crisis.

 

But the weird thing is, that is his job, to work on crisis management.

 

 

But its not his job to spread his own personal theory without it being approved or else everyone would do it and cause untold confusion of facts. Like some have done with herd immunity which has been understandably all but ignored as a nonsense.

[RedPill]

3 minutes ago, Sujo said:

But its not his job to spread his own personal theory without it being approved or else everyone would do it and cause untold confusion of facts.

For a split second, I thought you guys talk about white house press conferences ????

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

 

If everybody felt the way he does and did the same thing there wouldn't be anyway to stay inside for 2 years. If you have a pension and this happens kiss that goodbye. Cash you say? haha not worth the paper it is printed on in that scenario. People have to go out to produce the things that make life possible.

 

If the virus is just going to spike every time lockdowns are lifted staying locked down is pointless. It's like a bad zombie movie, you are locked inside and as time goes on the zombies are still there. Respect to the people that take the risk to be guinea pigs for the weak and cowardly that say they are stupid. Hopefully those that are first reap the greatest rewards.

 

 

Of course, it will spike (to various extents) every time lockdowns are lifted. Everybody knows it. It will be so until enough people have been infected to reach herd imunity level. 

 

That's not the issue. The key issue is to adapt the level of demand for health services to the available capacity by flattening demand peaks. Therefore, an a sequence of a least partial lockdowns and openings is unavoidable.

 

Failing to do so would:

- increase the total number of deaths (from covid-19 as well as from other diseases) due to demand exceeding capacity

- result in horror stories such as people dying without any care in hospital corridors, which will inevitably lead to current governments being ousted during or before next elections.*

 

* Trump understands that quite well, hence his double talk.

 

[RedPill]

13 hours ago, Saint Nick said:

Pretty much thanks to a few ten thousand demonstrators on the weekend, who were "fighting" against their "freedoms" being taken away!

You just can't cure stupid!

I wouldn't say this is the complete picture.

 

Everybody has the right to say something in a democracy. No one has to take 'all and everything' what a government dictates for granted.

 

These 10k people in Stuttgart, did it in the correct way. They kept distance, raising their points, worries and opinions.

There were 300 police around them ... and they did not had to do anything ... no aggressions, a safe demonstration. 

A demonstration which was registered and approved by the government. And went without any significant problems.

 

Meanwhile, on other places, chaotic activists gather in unorganized get togethers, on top of each other, screaming around, freedom, 5G, Antivaxx ... extreme left and extreme right, shouting at the police, making trouble ... no one knows what the real point of the demonstration was. 

Everyone goes there with their extreme opinions, ignores all the rules, demo not even registered and are aggressive. 

 

These are the people where I say ... you just can't cure stupid. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by RedPill

[RedPill]

I find the behavior of antivaxxers incredibly stupid.

 

On the very first day, when the gov opens restrictions and the first ppl enjoy sitting on a terrace again with a cup of coffee in the sunshine, after weeks staying at home.

 

The antivaxxers have to go onto the street in a very chaotic and unorganized way, on top of each other, shouting at the police.

 

I have no idea about that vaccine thing ... it's too complex for me, in medical terms, so many different opinions.

 

But one thing is clear to me ... something scientific you can argue or proof or discuss in a different manner.

 

You don't have to go onto the streets and f$# it up for all the other people, who are finally outside sitting in a cafee again.

 

In that aspect, I don't have much respect for these conspiracy, 5g, antivaxx chaos activists.

 

I do respect 10k people coming together and demonstrate in a safe way, where police is watching from the sidelines, and don't have to do

anything. It would be a crazy world if no one would be allowed to demonstrate for their rights.

 

You know tabloids, they don't let anything slip to drama and spice it up .. never. The Sun, Bild etc. 

 

If the Bild reports that this was a peaceful demonstration, with 10k people, without any incidents ... then you know

it was a good demonstration.

 

https://www.bild.de/regional/stuttgart/stuttgart-aktuell/gegen-corona-regeln-mega-demo-mit-mehr-als-10000-demonstranten-70546726.bild.html

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by RedPill

[RedPill]

These are the ppl who f%$ it up for all others, IMO

 

Antivaxx demo goes wrong ... a small group of activists derail a initially 'registered and peaceful' demonstration.

 

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by RedPill

[lkv]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

The Robert Koch Institute for disease control said in a daily bulletin the number of people each sick person now infects - known as the reproduction rate, or R - had risen to 1.1.

Ok. So I don't know what to make of it.

 

In various articles i researched, they claimed the rate was 1.0 3 days ago, then 1.1, then 1.13.

 

The reality is, nobody can calculate R0 realtime. - read article below.

 

So I don't quite understand where their estimates derive from - I understand they are using models, but still - or if they just use it as a scaremonging tactic for people to practice social distancing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-r0-coronavirus-experiment-11588115565

Edited May 11, 2020 by lkv

[RedPill]

10 minutes ago, lkv said:

Ok. So I don't know what to make of it.

 

In various articles i researched, they claimed the rate was 1.0 3 days ago, then 1.1, then 1.13.

 

The reality is, nobody can calculate R0 realtime. - read article below.

 

So I don't quite understand where their estimates derive from - I understand they must be using models, but still - or if they just use it as a scaremonging tactic for people to practice social distancing.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-r0-coronavirus-experiment-11588115565

Good point, how do you want to measure this R metric?

 

I guess that's what 'the app' is going to be used for they are talking about ... hypothetically, if everyone would have one, you would get this kind of data.

 

But personally, I don't like this idea of a tracing app at all. 

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by RedPill

[lkv]

3 minutes ago, RedPill said:

Good point, how do you want to measure this R metric?

 

 

I just don't understand how yesterday 100 people infected 110 people and today they infect 113 people.

 

How can this model be so precise? And what model is this?

Edited May 11, 2020 by lkv

[RedPill]

2 minutes ago, lkv said:

I just don't understand how yesterday 100 people infected 110 people and today they infect 113 people.

 

How can this model be so precise? And what model is this?

I don't know, I never looked into detail of these models or calculations. Good you brought it up. Something to look into.

 

I hear them talking about it, but no one really gave any details on this. 

[daveAustin]

Best to open early and smooth the curve than big Vs up and down methinks. If no vaccine is forthcoming, this is the only way forward - i.e. move on and have at it rather than completely destroy economies and lives anyway.

Btw, Germany was on the fringes and hasn't had a 'proper' dose. 

[RedPill]

15 minutes ago, daveAustin said:

Best to open early and smooth the curve than big Vs up and down methinks. If no vaccine is forthcoming, this is the only way forward - i.e. move on and have at it rather than completely destroy economies and lives anyway.

Btw, Germany was on the fringes and hasn't had a 'proper' dose. 

You mean a proper dose of dead people? They did had a proper dose of infections though. I mean, they have been in the top of the charts since how long now.

 

I agree with you overall. After almost 8 weeks now ... it's enough. 

 

The people who can stay at home and have the means and/or also can work from home, are the ones who are very critical about everyone who is not 'just' staying at home.

 

This can't continue forever of course. That's why people are going on the streets, and for me personally, rightly so. If done in a correct manner.

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 2020 by RedPill

[stevenl]

9 hours ago, Logosone said:

Yes, that's right, they're accusing him of using official interior ministry notepaper to spread his own theories about the crisis.

 

But the weird thing is, that is his job, to work on crisis management.

 

 

Yes, his job, but not on the topics he sent the paper about.

Also, despite his boss rejecting it he still sent it out 

 

I'm sure also in Germany there are procedures for this.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Yes, his job, but not on the topics he sent the paper about.

Also, despite his boss rejecting it he still sent it out 

 

I'm sure also in Germany there are procedures for this.

It does look like he went somewhat  overboard, it was an 83 page report where he got experts' opinions from a lot of people, outside doctors and professors. Obviously using his professional capacity.

 

One interesting critique he makes however is that political parties could be seen as using the corona restrictions as a way to silence criticism of political parties.

 

We are seeing this in Germany now where official media reporting of protests against the restrictions is slanted towards "extreme right wing and conspiracy theorists", when it was obviously normal citizens that protested, with right wingers and conspiracy nuts sprinkled on top. So indeed all parties are using the pandemic to silence criticism and could do so.

 

That a civil servant whose job consists of protecting Germany's infrastructure has gone on record with a damning analysis of the damage of Germany's social distancing measures, and is willing to risk his job to say so is a bit concerning. He is obviously not a right wing extremist or nutcase, or he wouldn't be in the German civil service in charge of protecting infrastructure. It seems that a lot of people, smart professional people with jobs, whose job it is to analyse the impact of risks on infrastructure are viewing the cure as far worse than the disease.

 

For his troubles Stephan K was now suspended from the service. This should be an interesting legal case.

Edited May 12, 2020 by Logosone

[stevenl]

17 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It does look like he went somewhat  overboard, it was an 83 page report where he got experts' opinions from a lot of people, outside doctors and professors. Obviously using his professional capacity.

 

One interesting critique he makes however is that political parties could be seen as using the corona restrictions as a way to silence criticism of political parties.

 

We are seeing this in Germany now where official media reporting of protests against the restrictions is slanted towards "extreme right wing and conspiracy theorists", when it was obviously normal citizens that protested, with right wingers and conspiracy nuts sprinkled on top. So indeed all parties are using the pandemic to silence criticism and could do so.

 

That a civil servant whose job consists of protecting Germany's infrastructure has gone on record with a damning analysis of the damage of Germany's social distancing measures, and is willing to risk his job to say so is a bit concerning. He is obviously not a right wing extremist or nutcase, or he wouldn't be in the German civil service in charge of protecting infrastructure. It seems that a lot of people, smart professional people with jobs, whose job it is to analyse the impact of risks on infrastructure are viewing the cure as far worse than the disease.

 

For his troubles Stephan K was now suspended from the service. This should be an interesting legal case.

Yes, it does seem Germany is going (way) overboard.

[RedPill]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

with right wingers and conspiracy nuts sprinkled on top.

This quote made me laugh ????

 

You are right though ... we have to keep it very sharp. Too many things are getting mixed up. 

 

I mean about the demos, not about that paper you guys discuss.

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by RedPill

[RedPill]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Yes, it does seem Germany is going (way) overboard.

From what I read in the Netherlands, and the comments I read from my Dutch fellows on FB, it's all a little bit similar ...  I mean the overall situation.

 

Or what is your take on it?

Edited May 12, 2020 by RedPill

[stevenl]

1 minute ago, RedPill said:

From what I read in the Netherlands, and the comments I read from my Dutch fellows on FB, it's all a little bit similar ... 

 

Or what is your take on it?

I only do FB because I have to, and live in Thailand. But afaik criticism of the Dutch approach is not suppressed, and from what I read it is being suppressed in Germany.

[RedPill]

13 minutes ago, stevenl said:

I only do FB because I have to, and live in Thailand. But afaik criticism of the Dutch approach is not suppressed, and from what I read it is being suppressed in Germany.

That's interesting. Because I know several Dutch ppl who are completely talking the Dutch press down.

 

And when I watch the German news, including all the discussion programs, I find it rather balanced, with critics from all sides. I don't have the feeling 

I watch something where I get brainwashed.

 

I have this discussion with a Dutch cousin of mine since many weeks ???? He's a bit of a antivaxx/5g guy. But in a light, non-aggressive way. In any case, he shares a lot of things with me, where I say ... man, the German press is not like that. 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by RedPill

[stevenl]

8 minutes ago, RedPill said:

That's interesting. Because I know several Dutch ppl who are completely talking the Dutch press down.

 

And when I watch the German news, including all the discussion programs, I find it rather balanced, with critics from all sides. I don't have the feeling 

I watch something where I get brainwashed.

 

I have this discussion with a Dutch cousin of mine since many weeks ???? He's a bit of a antivaxx/5g guy.

 

Glad to hear it is balanced in Germany. I watch Dutch news only online, and what I see seems balanced.

 

And yes, I don't understand the anti 5g guys burning down transmission towers, especially now, and I find the anti vaxxers dangerous to society. And I totally agree with not letting them demonstrate right now.

[sukhumvitneon]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

It does look like he went somewhat  overboard, it was an 83 page report where he got experts' opinions from a lot of people, outside doctors and professors. Obviously using his professional capacity.

 

One interesting critique he makes however is that political parties could be seen as using the corona restrictions as a way to silence criticism of political parties.

 

We are seeing this in Germany now where official media reporting of protests against the restrictions is slanted towards "extreme right wing and conspiracy theorists", when it was obviously normal citizens that protested, with right wingers and conspiracy nuts sprinkled on top. So indeed all parties are using the pandemic to silence criticism and could do so.

 

That a civil servant whose job consists of protecting Germany's infrastructure has gone on record with a damning analysis of the damage of Germany's social distancing measures, and is willing to risk his job to say so is a bit concerning. He is obviously not a right wing extremist or nutcase, or he wouldn't be in the German civil service in charge of protecting infrastructure. It seems that a lot of people, smart professional people with jobs, whose job it is to analyse the impact of risks on infrastructure are viewing the cure as far worse than the disease.

 

For his troubles Stephan K was now suspended from the service. This should be an interesting legal case.

Some of the top doctors at the major hospital system in my city stated in an interview that the after effects of the social distancing/financial hardships/suicides are going to be worse than the covid death toll if restrictions aren't eased soon.  My state's governor completely glossed over this in a press conference though, the state is going to be locked down through the end of summer at least.

[Sujo]

I think anti vaxxers and vegans should be put together in the colloseum.