JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic

[Bkk Brian 3,016]

23 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

So for the next 2 years New Zealanders have a choice of China, Thailand or stay home.

 

And it will end the same way the annual flu epidemics end, SARS ended, neighbourhood chicken pox outbreaks end - when enough people are either naturally immune or changed their personal behaviours to avoid catching it.

 

Lockdowns, curfews, travel bans are just economic self abuse.

 

I understand that people for fell for the media fear campaign find it difficult to accept - so keep recycling the 'spin' - but every day more and more people are realising that the global response to COVID-19 was a huge error of judgement.

 

I was saying this in January, and getting abused on-line for saying it - at least now I have a few friends.

Actually New Zealand plans Australia as its first partner.

 

Sars mysteriously disappeared, will covid do the same, who knows, its a gamble to say it would, should we just hope that would be the case? In then meantime just change our personal behaviours in the assumption it will go away? Maybe, but who is going to drive that worldwide as a model of best practice based on just maybe because Sars did?

 

To reach natural immunity or herd immunity worldwide you already know this would virtually be impossible unless we deliberately infect countries that have had minimal outbreaks or have been successful in other methods of controlling the virus but then that also does not fit in with your assumption that it will just go away either.

 

Agreed, lockdowns, travel bans are economic ruin when done in panic mode and for such lengthy periods but the alternatives are what, the above maybe ^^ again?

 

Agreed again the global response was a huge error in judgement in many ways by many countries apart from a select few.

 

I'm with you on many points and thoughts but where does that leave us? A vaccine is the best hope for this as soon as possible in my opinion, it may not be 100% but any degree of protection will do and should provide the herd immunity needed.

 

When this is over then firmer more coordinated responses need to be activated based on best practice experience for future pandemics.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Bkk Brian

[Kinnock 3,658]

4 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That's one hypothesis. However, as we both know, Thailand is at the lower end of the scale in terms of antibody testing.

Thailand is one of the few Asian countries that has had mass BCG vaccination. The correlation between BCG immunization, and reduced or nil  coronavirus symptoms, is currently the subject of a clinical trial with frontline health workers in Australia.

Yes - although UK had a vaccination campaign too.

 

But UK does have a large vulnerable population of elderly, sick people just waiting for the next cause of pneumonia to send them on their way.

 

Much of the Western World does have a high percentage of unhealthy people.

[Lacessit 23,332]

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

But then there would be other signs - over-flowing hospitals, social media posts.

 

My GF's village has a normal death rate among the elderly - people in their 80's and 90's.

One day I will see a Thai without a smartphone, it will be like a sighting of a unicorn. Thai social connection being what it is, a coronavirus outbreak here would send Facebook into meltdown.

[nauseus 16,389]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Oh no it wasn't:

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

Read it all. In the QT Box they also say:

 

Quick Takes

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

 

 

And this is what you said (post 95):

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

---

By missing the word median you are giving the wrong impression. Or trying to.

Better just to say the incubation period can be up to 14 days. Innit?

[nauseus 16,389]

3 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Yes - although UK had a vaccination campaign too.

 

But UK does have a large vulnerable population of elderly, sick people just waiting for the next cause of pneumonia to send them on their way.

 

Much of the Western World does have a high percentage of unhealthy people.

We can see that.

[Logosone 6,863]

12 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

But then there would be other signs - over-flowing hospitals, social media posts.

 

Not really, countries can have Covid19 pandemics without overflowing hospitals. This was the case in Germany.

 

In Thailand, the disease could be taken to be pneumonia or something else.

 

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

[chessman 838]

20 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Sars mysteriously disappeared

SARS disappearance wasn’t that mysterious. It was due to public health initiatives. As more was discovered about it, scientists learned that it only really became infectious when the symptoms became stronger. When that was known it became possible to isolate possible carriers and stop It completely.
 

it’s a success story for public health bodies, government cooperation and rational scientific thinking. The same things we need to be putting our faith in now.

 

Who knows what damage SARS could have done 100 years ago.

 

 

[Bkk Brian 3,016]

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

SARS disappearance wasn’t that mysterious. It was due to public health initiatives. As more was discovered about it, scientists learned that it only really became infectious when the symptoms became stronger. When that was known it became possible to isolate possible carriers and stop It completely.
 

it’s a success story for public health bodies, government cooperation and rational scientific thinking. The same things we need to be putting our faith in now.

 

Who knows what damage SARS could have done 100 years ago.

 

 

Yes I've just quickly read an article on that and Sars also had very severe symptoms that everybody got and so contact tracing and quarantine was very effective in stopping the spread.

[Lacessit 23,332]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Well, he can't always be right, he's not German.

Refresh my memory please - was it not the Germans who tried to fight a war on two fronts? Or, more recently, fiddled diesel emission software to get the right result? Looks like you guys can't always be right either.

[Kinnock 3,658]

2 hours ago, chessman said:

SARS disappearance wasn’t that mysterious. It was due to public health initiatives. As more was discovered about it, scientists learned that it only really became infectious when the symptoms became stronger. When that was known it became possible to isolate possible carriers and stop It completely.
 

it’s a success story for public health bodies, government cooperation and rational scientific thinking. The same things we need to be putting our faith in now.

 

Who knows what damage SARS could have done 100 years ago.

 

 

I was in Hong Kong and Taiwan during SARS working on public health - and there's no way the health measures defeated SARS.

 

It faded out - probably due to a mutation to a less deadly form plus growing natural immunity. 

[Logosone 6,863]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

I was in Hong Kong and Taiwan during SARS working on public health - and there's no way the health measures defeated SARS.

 

It faded out - probably due to a mutation to a less deadly form plus growing natural immunity. 

That's exactly right, SARS disappeared because the virus lost part of its genome related to transmission.

 

Scientists have discovered a unique mutation to coronavirus in Arizona - and it's a pattern that they've seen before. One of the 382 samples they collected from coronavirus patients in the state was missing a sizeable segment of genetic material. In the middle and late stages of the SARS epidemic of 2003, this very same kind of deletion started cropping up in patients around the globe. It's not just any mutation - the change robs the closely related viruses of one of their weapons against the host's immune response, making the infection weaker. As that mutation became widespread, the SARS outbreak wound down. By July - five months after it emerged in Asia in February 23 - there were no new cases, and the outbreak was considered contained. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8286181/Coronavirus-mutation-one-sample-signal-getting-weaker.html

[utalkin2me 1,550]

A communist regime performed a lockdown, because they could do things like weld people's doors shut. They knew it would work. 

 

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

The almost inexplicable part was the people, many of you, fell for it all and went with it even more so than any of these leaders could have ever possibly imagined. Lockdowns were popular!

 

When we reached that point, the politicians who pander to the people started speaking and saying idiotic things. Doctors who said common sense things were censored. And, this today is where it has all led us.

 

Have a look at Thailand. May be one of the best example in the world. Borders closed, tourism and economy in ruins. Spiking homeless populations. And for what? About 3 days worth os Songkran road deaths. 

[impulse 21,063]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

 

 

When did that rule start?

 

[impulse 21,063]

8 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

There's a wingnut conspiracy theory circulating that Italy implemented a different flu vaccine this year and that's what contributed to their high Covid death rate.  I don't even claim to know if they actually did implement a different vaccine, much less agree or disagree with that theory.  I heard it in an interview with Judy Mikovits, so that would be a good place to start if you wanted to climb down your own rabbit hole.

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by impulse

[Kinnock 3,658]

7 hours ago, impulse said:

 

There's a wingnut conspiracy theory circulating that Italy implemented a different flu vaccine this year and that's what contributed to their high Covid death rate.  I don't even claim to know if they actually did implement a different vaccine, much less agree or disagree with that theory.  I heard it in an interview with Judy Mikovits, so that would be a good place to start if you wanted to climb down your own rabbit hole.

 

No mystery about Italy - high proportion of old, obese people means any epidemic will take it's toll.  Happens in Italy every time there's a bad flu epidemic too .