JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic

[Logosone 6,063]

7 hours ago, impulse said:

 

 

When did that rule start?

 

Not a rule, just a comment on the 'it would be all over social media' notion.

 

If a Thai family thinks their grandfather died of heart attack, stroke, pneumonia, they would not say he died of Covid19 all over social media. They would not know themselves.

[rabas 4,610]

17 hours ago, Logosone said:

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

Everywhere Lock down was properly implemented.

[rabas 4,610]

11 hours ago, Logosone said:

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

An yet this entire thread is just that.

[Logosone 6,063]

7 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

 

 

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

The almost inexplicable part was the people, many of you, fell for it all and went with it even more so than any of these leaders could have ever possibly imagined. Lockdowns were popular!

 

When we reached that point, the politicians who pander to the people started speaking and saying idiotic things. Doctors who said common sense things were censored. And, this today is where it has all led us.

 

Have a look at Thailand. May be one of the best example in the world. Borders closed, tourism and economy in ruins. Spiking homeless populations. And for what? About 3 days worth os Songkran road deaths. 

It's true. Italy made Ferguson change his paper, he realised it was wrong as he saw the figures in Italy.

 

Italy demonstrated already that hard lockdowns, and Italy's was the hardest of all lockdowns, were not able to stop the pandemic. Only with mass testing were they able to stem the pandemic, or possible it was the inherent dynamic of the virus. Either way, Italy did all that China, the UK, did, but they could not stop the virus. 

[Logosone 6,063]

16 minutes ago, rabas said:

Everywhere Lock down was properly implemented.

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

[geriatrickid 20,702]

14 hours ago, Logosone said:

Oh no it wasn't:

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

Another example of  taking a statement out of context and manipulating it to fit an agenda.

 

The key word is MEDIAN. Do you know what MEDIAN means? Introductory Stats 121 - The median value is fixed by its position and is not reflected by the individual value.

 

The authors estimated the median incubation period to be 5.1 days (95% confidence interval, 4.5-5.8 days); 97.5% of people who were infected exhibited symptoms by 11.5 days (95% confidence interval, 8.2-15.6 days). 

 

There was a range of 4 days to 15.6 days in the study of 186 patients who had traveled to Wuhan. This was self reporting. 

 

Isolation / Incubation periods for infectious respiratory diseases, especially those with unknown characteristics,  are NOT determined by an incubation period. The presence of 

asymptomatic individuals must be accounted for.  

 

However, most annoying is the fact that you did not read the actual study. Perhaps it is too difficult for you to comprehend, but the  study offers the following;

- Publicly reported cases may over represent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases.

- Among those who are infected and will develop symptoms, we expect 101 in 10 000 (99th percentile, 482) will do so after the end of a 14-day monitoring period (Table 2 and Figure 3), and our analyses do not preclude this estimate from being higher

 

The above means that patients may show symptoms after 14 days. Your use of the 5 days period, presents  a completely different picture. It is misleading and dishonest.

 

 

 

 

[chessman 831]

11 hours ago, Kinnock said:

I was in Hong Kong and Taiwan during SARS working on public health - and there's no way the health measures defeated SARS.

 

It faded out - probably due to a mutation to a less deadly form plus growing natural immunity. 

So you think all the measures Hong Kong put in place weren’t effective? What kind of public health job did you have?
 

Growing natural immunity? from a virus with a mortality rate of 10%? You wrote in a previous thread that Hong Kong achieved herd immunity with SARS. You are completely wrong about this
 

It was research that showed that SARS only became infectious quite late (different to COVID). This meant that public health interventions were really effective. 

[geriatrickid 20,702]

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

There was no mass testing in Taiwan.

Canada  went through  a lockdown. In the provinces and regions where the pandemic is under control and where cases are no longer being recorded, there was a strict lockdown and a travel ban on outsiders. Their testing is not as extensive in the two hardest hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada is now opening up. Ontario and Quebec have the highest rates of testing. Quebec province has tested more people per capita than the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and yet it has almost 1/2 of Canada's cases.

It also has a mortality rate of 8.5%.

 

So much for your claim of testing dependence.

 

[Bkk Brian 1,897]

48 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

There was no mass testing in Taiwan.

Canada  went through  a lockdown. In the provinces and regions where the pandemic is under control and where cases are no longer being recorded, there was a strict lockdown and a travel ban on outsiders. Their testing is not as extensive in the two hardest hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada is now opening up. Ontario and Quebec have the highest rates of testing. Quebec province has tested more people per capita than the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and yet it has almost 1/2 of Canada's cases.

It also has a mortality rate of 8.5%.

 

So much for your claim of testing dependence.

 

Taiwan, excellent example of how to flatten the curve and control the virus, WHO should highlight this more but politics are in the way of this. They had contingency lockdown plans well rehearsed as well should it have gotten out of hand. However they were quick enough in their actions to not need them.

[nauseus 14,432]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

Think of the greater failure - at least in terms of nations not protecting citizens - if nothing had been done. As far as the world is concerned, the main failure was by the Chinese, who allowed travel out of China when they should have stopped it but when, at the same time, they imposed lockdowns domestically! After that, the virus spread continued largely unnoticed for up to another month, due to the lag until manifestation and before people started dying by the hundreds, especially in Italy and Iran.  

[Kinnock 3,258]

6 hours ago, chessman said:

So you think all the measures Hong Kong put in place weren’t effective? What kind of public health job did you have?
 

Growing natural immunity? from a virus with a mortality rate of 10%? You wrote in a previous thread that Hong Kong achieved herd immunity with SARS. You are completely wrong about this
 

It was research that showed that SARS only became infectious quite late (different to COVID). This meant that public health interventions were really effective. 

What I saw in HK was less than most countries are doing now, but that's not important anyway as it faded out everywhere, so Hong Kong procedures are irrelevant.

 

Too many Google virologists and born again epidemiologists is one one of the core issues with the current epidemic too.  The official 'experts' have created economic havoc based on incorrect data, and scared people have allowed them to lead everyone over the cliff.

[chessman 831]

This national review writer has collected all the studies about the effectiveness of lockdowns he could find. The JP Morgan one is included in the section ‘lockdowns didn’t work’ but the majority of the studies have been classified in the ‘lockdowns work’ section.

 

The writer himself came to this conclusion:

 

‘My own read of the evidence is that government restrictions make a difference — but that voluntary social distancing rooted in fear of the virus does a lot of the work too. Which isn’t that surprising when you think about it, because, at least in democratic countries, it’s very hard to lock down unless the public wants to. By the time U.S. states told everyone to stay home, their restaurant traffic (as measured by OpenTable) had already fallen by more than half’

 

which makes a lot of sense to me.
 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/did-the-lockdowns-work/

 

 

 

Edited May 26 by chessman

[Bkk Brian 1,897]

56 minutes ago, chessman said:

This national review writer has collected all the studies about the effectiveness of lockdowns he could find. The JP Morgan one is included in the section ‘lockdowns didn’t work’ but the majority of the studies have been classified in the ‘lockdowns work’ section.

Great find this probably deserves its own thread, more than enough to be getting on with for those with time and into some heavy reading. I've not gone into any yet but certainly will be venturing down the rabbit hole. I hope with enough reference material now some posters will have a more open mind on the +/- of the differing approaches. 

 

[Logosone 6,063]

Is the National Review some sort of right wing American political site?

[Bkk Brian 1,897]

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Is the National Review some sort of right wing American political site?

It contains the JP Morgan report to financial investors, your go to study on lockdowns so what do you think? 

Edited May 26 by Bkk Brian