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JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic

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7 hours ago, impulse said:

 

 

When did that rule start?

 

Not a rule, just a comment on the 'it would be all over social media' notion.

 

If a Thai family thinks their grandfather died of heart attack, stroke, pneumonia, they would not say he died of Covid19 all over social media. They would not know themselves.

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17 hours ago, Logosone said:

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

Everywhere Lock down was properly implemented.

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11 hours ago, Logosone said:

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

An yet this entire thread is just that.

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7 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

 

 

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

The almost inexplicable part was the people, many of you, fell for it all and went with it even more so than any of these leaders could have ever possibly imagined. Lockdowns were popular!

 

When we reached that point, the politicians who pander to the people started speaking and saying idiotic things. Doctors who said common sense things were censored. And, this today is where it has all led us.

 

Have a look at Thailand. May be one of the best example in the world. Borders closed, tourism and economy in ruins. Spiking homeless populations. And for what? About 3 days worth os Songkran road deaths. 

It's true. Italy made Ferguson change his paper, he realised it was wrong as he saw the figures in Italy.

 

Italy demonstrated already that hard lockdowns, and Italy's was the hardest of all lockdowns, were not able to stop the pandemic. Only with mass testing were they able to stem the pandemic, or possible it was the inherent dynamic of the virus. Either way, Italy did all that China, the UK, did, but they could not stop the virus. 

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16 minutes ago, rabas said:

Everywhere Lock down was properly implemented.

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

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3 hours ago, Logosone said:

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

There was no mass testing in Taiwan.

Canada  went through  a lockdown. In the provinces and regions where the pandemic is under control and where cases are no longer being recorded, there was a strict lockdown and a travel ban on outsiders. Their testing is not as extensive in the two hardest hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada is now opening up. Ontario and Quebec have the highest rates of testing. Quebec province has tested more people per capita than the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and yet it has almost 1/2 of Canada's cases.

It also has a mortality rate of 8.5%.

 

So much for your claim of testing dependence.

 

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48 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

There was no mass testing in Taiwan.

Canada  went through  a lockdown. In the provinces and regions where the pandemic is under control and where cases are no longer being recorded, there was a strict lockdown and a travel ban on outsiders. Their testing is not as extensive in the two hardest hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada is now opening up. Ontario and Quebec have the highest rates of testing. Quebec province has tested more people per capita than the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and yet it has almost 1/2 of Canada's cases.

It also has a mortality rate of 8.5%.

 

So much for your claim of testing dependence.

 

Taiwan, excellent example of how to flatten the curve and control the virus, WHO should highlight this more but politics are in the way of this. They had contingency lockdown plans well rehearsed as well should it have gotten out of hand. However they were quick enough in their actions to not need them.

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6 hours ago, chessman said:

So you think all the measures Hong Kong put in place weren’t effective? What kind of public health job did you have?
 

Growing natural immunity? from a virus with a mortality rate of 10%? You wrote in a previous thread that Hong Kong achieved herd immunity with SARS. You are completely wrong about this
 

It was research that showed that SARS only became infectious quite late (different to COVID). This meant that public health interventions were really effective. 

What I saw in HK was less than most countries are doing now, but that's not important anyway as it faded out everywhere, so Hong Kong procedures are irrelevant.

 

Too many Google virologists and born again epidemiologists is one one of the core issues with the current epidemic too.  The official 'experts' have created economic havoc based on incorrect data, and scared people have allowed them to lead everyone over the cliff.

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Posted (edited)

This national review writer has collected all the studies about the effectiveness of lockdowns he could find. The JP Morgan one is included in the section ‘lockdowns didn’t work’ but the majority of the studies have been classified in the ‘lockdowns work’ section.

 

The writer himself came to this conclusion:

 

‘My own read of the evidence is that government restrictions make a difference — but that voluntary social distancing rooted in fear of the virus does a lot of the work too. Which isn’t that surprising when you think about it, because, at least in democratic countries, it’s very hard to lock down unless the public wants to. By the time U.S. states told everyone to stay home, their restaurant traffic (as measured by OpenTable) had already fallen by more than half

 

which makes a lot of sense to me.
 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/did-the-lockdowns-work/


 

 

 

Edited by chessman
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56 minutes ago, chessman said:

This national review writer has collected all the studies about the effectiveness of lockdowns he could find. The JP Morgan one is included in the section ‘lockdowns didn’t work’ but the majority of the studies have been classified in the ‘lockdowns work’ section.

Great find this probably deserves its own thread, more than enough to be getting on with for those with time and into some heavy reading. I've not gone into any yet but certainly will be venturing down the rabbit hole. I hope with enough reference material now some posters will have a more open mind on the +/- of the differing approaches. 

 

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Is the National Review some sort of right wing American political site?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Is the National Review some sort of right wing American political site?

It contains the JP Morgan report to financial investors, your go to study on lockdowns so what do you think? 😷

Edited by Bkk Brian
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