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JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic


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3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

If this study actually named the countries then its a simple task to test the conclusions by plotting the exact dates of lockdown easing to the trajectory of the virus. Without this vital piece of info then the study is useless.

Well, this is exactly what this study has done and it concluded that "blanket stay-at-home orders had little effect on curbing coronavirus outbreaks".

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8294507/New-study-reveals-blueprint-getting-Covid-19-lockdown.html

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf

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"Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus 'likely has its own dynamics' which are 'unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures', a report published by the finan

Really,  I am going to take medical advice paid for by a banker 😡   Sorry,  but I am not President Trump 

It is remarkable, isn't it, you might actually believe the  rubbish you post.   Of course the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates after lockdowns were lifted - because o

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11 hours ago, steelepulse said:

 

It is remarkable, isn't it, that all the lockdown fanatics would have you believe that lockdowns were so crucial in controlling the virus, and then it turns out that, well, actually, 'the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted'.

 

So lockdowns not so crucial after all then. Despite all the earnest hysteria.


Lockdowns and the preference towards lockdowns have a lot to do with how the governments think of their citizens.

Some think they are stupid, don't understand, and need to get forced to do what they should do, and impose draconian lockdowns, order the police to enforce them.

Others respect their citizens, treat them as adults, explain what they think they should do, allow discussion, encourage them to follow the guidelines, but respect their decision if they don't.

(I was astonished to see South Korea in the second group, they seem to have a lot of respect for their citizens there. Definitely on my list of countries to visit now.)

All what you can achieve with a draconian lockdown (assuming it would achieve something useful) you can achieve without it, as long as you have a convincing case for what you want and explain it to your citizens. 

So in my humble opionion this all boils down to the lockdown governments thinking they have to force their citizens because they are too stupid to understand. Which also leads to nonsense orders such as beach bans. A lot of the lockdown fans here seem to share that understanding of their fellow citizens, seeing them as being too stupid to understand.

Of course ordering lockdowns is much more easy than presenting good arguments. Or allowing discussions, questioning. Heaven forbid, different opinions, discussions, oh no (a big thanks for censoring and deleting them to Google, Twitter, FakeBook)!  So for many countries, and many posters here on TVF, "ordering" it is. 

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2 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:


Lockdowns and the preference towards lockdowns have a lot to do with how the governments think of their citizens.

Some think they are stupid, don't understand, and need to get forced to do what they should do, and impose draconian lockdowns, order the police to enforce them.

Others respect their citizens, treat them as adults, explain what they think they should do, allow discussion, encourage them to follow the guidelines, but respect their decision if they don't.

(I was astonished to see South Korea in the second group, they seem to have a lot of respect for their citizens there. Definitely on my list of countries to visit now.)

All what you can achieve with a draconian lockdown (assuming it would achieve something useful) you can achieve without it, as long as you have a convincing case for what you want and explain it to your citizens. 

So in my humble opionion this all boils down to the lockdown governments thinking they have to force their citizens because they are too stupid to understand. Which also leads to nonsense orders such as beach bans. A lot of the lockdown fans here seem to share that understanding of their fellow citizens, seeing them as being too stupid to understand.

Of course ordering lockdowns is much more easy than presenting good arguments. Or allowing discussions, questioning. Heaven forbid, different opinions, discussions, oh no (a big thanks for censoring and deleting them to Google, Twitter, FakeBook)!  So for many countries, and many posters here on TVF, "ordering" it is. 

 

That's right, we see this in Spain and Italy where there is zero respect for the citizens and they are effectively treated like criminals from the outset. Same in the UK.

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14 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well, this is exactly what this study has done and it concluded that "blanket stay-at-home orders had little effect on curbing coronavirus outbreaks".

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8294507/New-study-reveals-blueprint-getting-Covid-19-lockdown.html

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf

Old stuff with inconclusive conclusions. They missed so much. 

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19 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well, this is exactly what this study has done and it concluded that "blanket stay-at-home orders had little effect on curbing coronavirus outbreaks".

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8294507/New-study-reveals-blueprint-getting-Covid-19-lockdown.html

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf

That tells us nothing, you've pointed to links that are for a separate non peer reviewed study and paper not the one by JP Morgan which is what the threads about, again the J P morgan study does not list the countries it bases its findings on, so its impossible to make a valuation as to its credibility.

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5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Old stuff with inconclusive conclusions. They missed so much. 

Why did I know you would have to make such a comment 🙄 🤣

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1 hour ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Why did I know you would have to make such a comment 🙄 🤣

You didn't know. To prove such a claim you must post a prediction. 🤩 

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2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

What? Do you deliberately lie? It is correct, your links were for a completely separate study that has been debated to death in a previous thread.

 

Please provide a link in the study that refers to Denmark, Germany and several US states because I cannot see that claim. I can then make my own test on the results.

Keep your laughable insults, I already provided the link. Read what was provided.

 

It's again mentioned here as well, just for another source:

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1286058/US-coronavirus-news-JP-Morgan-study-lockdown-covid-19-infection-death-rates-donald-trump

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19 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:


And the countries without lockdowns, why did also they have decreased infection rates? According to your logic, they shouldn't - but also they have decreased infection rates.

I don't understand why you are so strongly into lockdowns, fighting against every hint that they might be not needed. Do you just enjoy being locked up, or are there other reasons?

Show me a country where decreased infection rates have not followed some form of lockdown.

 

I am not strongly into lockdowns, the only one that should have been necessary was in China. 

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57 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Keep your laughable insults, I already provided the link. Read what was provided.

 

It's again mentioned here as well, just for another source:

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1286058/US-coronavirus-news-JP-Morgan-study-lockdown-covid-19-infection-death-rates-donald-trump

A link to a news report, the same thing in the SUN another UK tabloid, the Mail and also at Fox news. No the study is not contained in any of them only cherry picked excerpts for click bait, but here it is for you.

 

The summary of the J.P Morgan Derivatives Strategy 20 May 2020 Market and Volatility Commentary Political risks of pandemic

 

 https://imgcdn.larepublica.co/cms/2020/05/21180548/JP-Morgan.pdf

 

Such a fine scientific note to its investors

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

A link to a news report, the same thing in the SUN another UK tabloid, the Mail and also at Fox news. No the study is not contained in any of them only cherry picked excerpts for click bait, but here it is for you.

 

The summary of the J.P Morgan Derivatives Strategy 20 May 2020 Market and Volatility Commentary Political risks of pandemic

 

 https://imgcdn.larepublica.co/cms/2020/05/21180548/JP-Morgan.pdf

 

Such a fine scientific note to its investors

 

 

Thanks for posting this simplistic attempt to make JP Morgan great again.

 

Of course there were lower infections right after the lockdowns - much of the spread was halted by them!

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8 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Thanks for posting this simplistic attempt to make JP Morgan great again.

 

Of course there were lower infections right after the lockdowns - much of the spread was halted by them!

Exactly

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19 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

And the countries without lockdowns, why did also they have decreased infection rates?

There are very few countries that had no lockdown measures. Brazil was one. How are their numbers doing recently?

 

In case you weren't sure, Here's a graph showing the rolling 7-day average of deaths per capita there.

 

 

Screenshot_20200524-163017.png

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