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Logosone

JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days, not 14 days.

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

 

MEDIAN! Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

To say it has been a "severe" remedy with little benefit is understating and misstating it. Lockdowns have been more than "severe". They have separated husband and wife, destroyed well run businesses, ruined careers, stopped people having operations and seeing doctors, and most likely will cause a GDP contraction of around 30% in the US and the UK.

 

Lockdowns have been no remedy at all, because the evidence shows they did not alter the pandemic parametres.

 

It is conceivable that lockdowns at the very start, before the virus had spread massively could have had an effect. However, once the virus had spread widely, imposing the lockdowns was useless from a pandemic stopping perspective.

 

 

Even if you hit the brakes late you might avoid a car crash. 

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26 minutes ago, Greg O said:

There is absolutely no evidence that locking down and quarantining healthy people has had any positive effect. The virus spreads naturally regardless what you do (masks can't catch it, testing can't catch it. Only  government with their archaic and draconian protocols have spread death and destruction to levels never even imagined before, and oh what about influenza ? If lockdowns were effective then flu infections should have dropped as well but in fact they've increased. 

Back on the road again...

Good. hope you have a long drive.

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24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Okay, post your instance where lockdown worked.

 

Let's look at it.

If you keep an infected person whether they show symptoms or not away, from an healthy person for 14 days then the healthy person will remain healthy.

 

Lockdown 101.

 

Now you can then go onto to expand that to groups, living situations, towns, cities, countries.

 

This is fact.

 

Refer to my previous posts on circumstances etc and not going to repeat myself

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5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

MEDIAN! Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

You appear to have problems comprehending what studies are saying

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

The authors then computed that if risk of exposure is low (1 in 10,000 exposed people) or medium (1 in 1,000 exposed people), 7 days of monitoring would be sufficient to identify >99% of symptomatic cases. However, if monitoring definitely infected people, monitoring durations >14 days could be required to capture >99% of symptomatic cases."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

So to be clear: In the majority of cases the incubation period is around 5 days. Only if you want to catch 99% of symptomatic cases in those definitely infected would you monitor for 14 days or longer.

 

The incubation period is NOT 14 days. It is 5 days.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

If you keep an infected person whether they show symptoms or not away, from an healthy person for 14 days then the healthy person will remain healthy.

 

Lockdown 101.

 

Now you can then go onto to expand that to groups, living situations, towns, cities, countries.

 

This is fact.

 

Refer to my previous posts on circumstances etc and not going to repeat myself

So no actual example of a real life lockdown policy that actually worked after it was examined.

 

Duly noted.

 

Of course your theory above rather omits what happens if you then cease to keep the infected person away from the healthy person and allow the infected person to have contact with the healthy person once again, after lockdown has ended.

 

Now expand this to cities, countries.

Edited by Logosone
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12 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Even if you hit the brakes late you might avoid a car crash. 

How did that work out in the UK?

 

Looked like a pretty major crash.

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8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

So no actual example of a real life lockdown policy that actually worked after it was examined.

 

Duly noted.

 

Of course your theory above rather omits what happens if you then cease to keep the infected person away from the healthy person and allow the infected person to have contact with the healthy person once again, after lockdown has ended.

 

Now expand this to cities, countries.

So a scientific albeit basic factual explanation is not enough.

 

As for real life, I didn't realize that the pandemic was over how can I have an example of lockdowns, herd immunity, mass test and tracing and other models when this is still ongoing and far from finished, I'm humble enough to say that things may change in all models and thats why I specifically stated on numerous occasions as you well know that I am reserving judgement until best practice has been established with all the tools available and that is only when the results are finally compiled.

 

Thank god your not involved in developing a vaccine and get to phase 1 or 2 and say its a success because the evidence says so, yes correct it does but still 2 more phases of trials to go.

 

There are indeed studies of lockdowns working, scientific papers, not going to link though as I'm not attempting or have any wish to persuade you that you are wrong, I much prefer to challenge those who skew the truth. 

 

You have never actually stated which model you stand for and why? 

 

 

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Meanwhile India abandons lockdown, which has caused untold misery and chaos in the huge country, even though case numbers are rising. Why are they abandoning lockdown, even though the case numbers are going up? Because they understood lockdown is a useless policy.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52750255

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So a scientific albeit basic factual explanation is not enough.

 

As for real life, I didn't realize that the pandemic was over how can I have an example of lockdowns, herd immunity, mass test and tracing and other models when this is still ongoing and far from finished, I'm humble enough to say that things may change in all models and thats why I specifically stated on numerous occasions as you well know that I am reserving judgement until best practice has been established with all the tools available and that is only when the results are finally compiled.

 

Thank god your not involved in developing a vaccine and get to phase 1 or 2 and say its a success because the evidence says so, yes correct it does but still 2 more phases of trials to go.

 

There are indeed studies of lockdowns working, scientific papers, not going to link though as I'm not attempting or have any wish to persuade you that you are wrong, I much prefer to challenge those who skew the truth. 

 

You have never actually stated which model you stand for and why? 

 

 

Okay, but you can not name a single country, where based on the evidence available now, lockdown has actually worked?

 

Kindly cite an example of where I skew the truth. Thanks.

Edited by Logosone
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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Okay, but you can not name a single country, where based on the evidence available now, lockdown has actually worked?

 

Kindly cite an example of where I skew the truth. Thanks.

Yes I can name a country infact a few where there is current success after the lockdowns but still a way to go on final results particularly on the economic consequences and excess deaths situation, phase 3 and 4 if you like. Not going to be drawn on a debate at this stage on them with you.

 

I'm still waiting for what your model is to stop the pandemic? Apart from citing JP Morgan that is.

 

The only thing I know at the moment is that you are sure lockdowns don't work and that you refuse to wear a facemask and do not believe they offer any protection for the general public

 

 

Edited by Bkk Brian

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6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes I can name a country infact a few where there is current success after the lockdowns

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

You appear to have problems comprehending what studies are saying

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

The authors then computed that if risk of exposure is low (1 in 10,000 exposed people) or medium (1 in 1,000 exposed people), 7 days of monitoring would be sufficient to identify >99% of symptomatic cases. However, if monitoring definitely infected people, monitoring durations >14 days could be required to capture >99% of symptomatic cases."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

So to be clear: In the majority of cases the incubation period is around 5 days. Only if you want to catch 99% of symptomatic cases in those definitely infected would you monitor for 14 days or longer.

 

The incubation period is NOT 14 days. It is 5 days.

You appear to have problems both reading and comprehending what your own references say!

 

Quick Takes (from your own reference)

 

  • The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
  • 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
  • Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.
Edited by nauseus
sorry Brian can't get rid of your bit
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49 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Meanwhile India abandons lockdown, which has caused untold misery and chaos in the huge country, even though case numbers are rising. Why are they abandoning lockdown, even though the case numbers are going up? Because they understood lockdown is a useless policy.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52750255

 

 

Again the reference link does not say anything about "because they understood lockdown is a useless policy". All your own guff. 

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

How did that work out in the UK?

 

Looked like a pretty major crash.

It was. Locked down too late to avoid a pile-up. However, with zero lockdown the pile would have been far higher.

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