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JP Morgan study shows lockdowns did not alter course of pandemic

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31 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

Kiwiland.

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13 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

You appear to have problems both reading and comprehending what your own references say!

 

Quick Takes (from your own reference)

 

  • The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
  • 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
  • Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

Also confirmed by WHO

 

Pre-symptomatic transmission The incubation period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus (becoming infected) and symptom onset, is on average 5-6 days, however can be up to 14 days.

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Its about keeping the balance right. Here in Norway we succeeded, despite what Tegnell thinks will happen.  The Norwegian and Danish strategy worked.  

 

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52 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Kiwiland.

New Zealands done very well as has Austria after its harsh lockdown

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43 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

New Zealands done very well as has Austria after its harsh lockdown

A cursory look at the testing regimes run by New Zealand and Austria confirms it was their above average testing and isolating the infected, that led to their successful control of the pandemic, not the lockdown. You can not explain their success with "lockdown" when other more reasonable explanations explain the reduced transmissions.

 

 

 

 

NZ daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day.png

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1 hour ago, nauseus said:

 

You appear to have problems both reading and comprehending what your own references say!

 

Quick Takes (from your own reference)

 

  • The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
  • 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
  • Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

I'll make this easy for you to understand:

 

1. The very vast majority of people show symptoms after 5 days

2. To get to a 97.5 figure, you monitor for 11.5 days

3. To get to a 99% figure you monitor for 14 days.

 

However, the median, ie average, incubation period is 5 days. Not 14 days.

 

How is this hard to understand?

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I'll make this easy for you to understand:

 

1. The very vast majority of people show symptoms after 5 days

2. To get to a 97.5 figure, you monitor for 11.5 days

3. To get to a 99% figure you monitor for 14 days.

 

However, the median, ie average, incubation period is 5 days. Not 14 days.

 

How is this hard to understand?

Not a problem. That's why the 14 day isolation period seems to be standard in most places. The problem here is your posting of the following half-quote, without including the word 'median' between The and incubation:

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

Edited by nauseus
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52 minutes ago, Logosone said:

A cursory look at the testing regimes run by New Zealand and Austria confirms it was their above average testing and isolating the infected, that led to their successful control of the pandemic, not the lockdown. You can not explain their success with "lockdown" when other more reasonable explanations explain the reduced transmissions.

 

 

 

 

NZ daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day.png

With a population smaller than Scotland it might be safe to assume that the amount of tests available per 1000 was higher than the world average.

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On 5/24/2020 at 8:04 AM, Logosone said:

Just totally untrue.

 

Patterns have changed massively, even minor easing of the lockdown resulted in people swarming to the beaches in the UK.

Right, people going to the beach proves that interaction patterns change massively as soon as elements of lockdowns are reduced. I don’t think you believe this yourself. 

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1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes of course nothing to do with the lockdowns, I expected nothing less from you and why I will not debate the subject with you. Real experts say otherwise which is far more credible than your predictable response:

 

Michael Baker, professor at the University of Otago's department of public health in Wellington, who has been advising the New Zealand Government on its response, said implementing a full lockdown—involving the closure of schools and non-essential workplaces, a ban on social gatherings, and severe travel restrictions—enabled the country to consider elimination. “I think it was the right decision; we had to go hard”, he said.

“The two biggest benefits of pursuing an elimination strategy is that you have few cases and few deaths and you can get business back up and running. The alternative was that we are stuck with the virus and stuck between mitigation and suppression. Suppression is pretty grim.”

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1274663/New-Zealand-coronavirus-Jacinda-Ardern-lockdown-exit-tourism-industry

 

 

 

The government’s success in fighting the pandemic thus far is owed mainly to an early lockdown, Thomas Czypionka, head of the Austrian Institute of Advanced Studies’ Health Economics and Health Policy Group and a visiting senior research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-austria-cases-covid-19-hospital-lockdown-latest-a9466281.html

I am afraid you can not argue that mandatory full lockdown was the sole cause of reducing transmissions in New Zealand. Simply because New Zealand has also embarked on one of the most ambitious testing regimes of any country in the world, and isolated the infected.

 

Very obviously this has had an effect on the transmission figure. To attribute it solely to the lockdown is just wrong.

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1 hour ago, nauseus said:

Not a problem. That's why the 14 day isolation period seems to be standard in most places. The problem here is your posting of the following half-quote, without including the word 'median' between The and incubation:

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

 

No, it's not a problem, because that is exactly what the report said. Those words are direct quotations from report. How is this a problem? Median was not included by the authors in that sentence.

 

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On 5/24/2020 at 8:05 AM, Logosone said:

You are obviously unaware that Australia and New Zealand tested more than most nations on earth. They contained the virus by their massive testing and isolating the infected, not through the lockdowns. 

As usual, you continue to publish falsehoods. Testing a bit more than the USA, a lot less than Russia.

Do you persist with adhering to your total selfishness in not wearing a mask?

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, chessman said:

Right, people going to the beach proves that interaction patterns change massively as soon as elements of lockdowns are reduced. I don’t think you believe this yourself. 

"Sun-worshippers descended on parks and beaches today amid an expected 79F heatwave as they declared, 'If Dominic Cummings can break the rules, we can too' after Boris Johnson's Svengali got away with a 260-mile trip during lockdown.

 

This morning, crowds formed outside the Serpentine in London's Hyde Park, as beaches in Sussex, Essex and Dorset quickly filled up with visitors looking to enjoy the dry and sunny conditions forecast to last the whole of Bank Holiday Monday. 

 

The prospect of large crowds of tourists caused one seaside town to buckle and declare that they would open public toilets to stop visitors relieving themselves in parks and beaches. 

Great Yarmouth Borough Council's leader Carl Smith said yesterday: 'With the bank holiday weekend and second week of relaxed restrictions bringing the increased possibility of more tourists venturing further afield, we have decided to re-open a limited number of seafront toilets at Great Yarmouth and Gorleston from tomorrow for emergency use in the interests of public health, which remains our top priority."

 

Yah, I'd say there's been a massive change in behavioural patterns.

 

Lockdown is dead.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8354291/Fears-lockdown-collapse-crowds-hitting-parks-beaches-79F-heatwave.html

 

UK beach.jpg

Edited by Logosone

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7 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

As usual, you continue to publish falsehoods. Testing a bit more than the USA, a lot less than Russia.

Do you persist with adhering to your total selfishness in not wearing a mask?

The only falsehood here is your totally false allegation, Wolloomooloo. New Zealand has tested more than most nations on earth, isolated the infected and that is the main reason why it succeeded in containing the pandemic, not lockdown.

 

That's not a falsehood. A falsehood is to claim that lockdown caused the stop in transmission. Very obviously mass testing on the scale that New Zealand did, isolating the infected has a major impact. We saw it with Germany, we saw it with South Korea, and we saw it with New Zealand. They just happened to use a hard lockdown as well, but that was not as important as their mass testing and isolating the infected.

 

Wear a mask if you have to to appease your overlords. Don't tell me what to do.

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