Thailand tourism to contract by 1.69 trillion baht this year – Kasikorn Research

[JensenZ]

3 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

And China has done the same yesterday:

no international flights before at least October...

There you go. Their major hope has already been dashed until October. They'll probably be a lot more countries doing this too.

[dallen52]

8 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

It would be interesting to compare the number of covid-19 deaths reported with an estimate of how many of the same could have succumb to a bad case of the seasonal flu. I'm sure there would be quite a large overlap. Isolating the elderly population only would have been easy compared to destroying the whole economy.

 

Anyway, it's too late now. I wonder how excited the Thai population will be to see millions of Chinese tourists back in again? It's ironic that TAT were still talking about boosting the quality of tourists, as late as March. Now they will be happy to take whatever they can get.

Global figures show that seasonal flu is behind the covid19 number. 

In Thailand it's possible that respiratory failure attributed to whatever, may add to this total. 

 

Oddly the road toll of 60 deaths daily average, or 24,000 a year, doesn't cause a ripple in social circles.

Just a part of every day life in Thailand. 

[JensenZ]

2 minutes ago, dallen52 said:

Global figures show that seasonal flu is behind the covid19 number. 

In Thailand it's possible that respiratory failure attributed to whatever, may add to this total. 

 

Oddly the road toll of 60 deaths daily average, or 24,000 a year, doesn't cause a ripple in social circles.

Just a part of every day life in Thailand. 

Behind or not, it would reduce the severity of the pandemic by a large percentage as the season flu typically kills a lot of elderly folk in any given year. I suppose no one wants to know they destroyed the world economy for a slightly more severe case of the seasonal flu.

[dallen52]

12 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

There you go. Their major hope has already been dashed until October. They'll probably be a lot more countries doing this too.

Still not sure where the "knowledgeable" keep plucking the October date?

 

Most international airlines are ramping up from June. 

Even Thai airways has schedules showing from July. 

Restricted locations and flights. 

 

They have to get back in the air. Freight is always required internationally. 

Plus the longer planes sit idle, the harder it gets to bring them into service. 

 

July with common sense restrictions is good for me. 

I can get back to the family hopefully, along with many other people. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by dallen52

[moe666]

4 hours ago, ozz1 said:

How the hell are they going to get near that figure with whats going on there dreaming  no flights baht being persistently high no borders open yet they must know something no one else knows about or they have consulted that tat fortune teller

go back and reread the story, if you didn't the first time it is called contract, get smaller they are losing money which many here will be happy to hear

[Seeall]

45 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

I don't believe numbers (infection/death) coming out of China. Few do. They've been covering up since the start - do you think all of a sudden they've become transparent? We have very little information from China.

 

My guess is they have at least as many infected or more than the USA as their population is over 4 times the US. You're kind of repeating what the PM in Thailand said - he was impressed with their low numbers and seems content to just let them back in based on the numbers they produced. They should be extra cautious with China, but because he is so desperate to get tourists back, it looks like he will take them at their word.

cmon... they know... but the THB is alluring......

[Guderian]

The evidence from both Thailand and South Korea is that the virus doesn't like heat, humidity and wide-open spaces (like tropical beaches), but it just loves cool, crowded, enclosed spaces (like night clubs). Unfortunately, aircraft also fit that second description, which isn't good news for the return of international tourism.

[Trillian]

38 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

And China has done the same yesterday:

no international flights before at least October...

That is not true, China still has international flights currently and they are increasing:

 

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-05-23/flying-to-china-still-a-challenge-as-authorities-extend-restrictions-101557791.html

[Trillian]

35 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

There you go. Their major hope has already been dashed until October. They'll probably be a lot more countries doing this too.

That is incorrect information, China has not banned international flights until October.

[JensenZ]

19 minutes ago, dallen52 said:

Still not sure where the "knowledgeable" keep plucking the October date?

 

  

I don't think a flight booking will offer any certainly of when you can fly.

 

My knowledge came from the mainstream Australia media. I read it and had no reason to believe they were lying. I did think it would be reviewed as the situation changes.

[JonnyF]

4 minutes ago, Trillian said:

That is incorrect information, China has not banned international flights until October.

Not a total ban, but almost. It's called the five ones policy

 

https://loyaltylobby.com/2020/05/21/china-extends-international-flight-restrictions-until-october-2020/

 

"The Five Ones allow each Chinese airline to fly one route once a week to any one country. Foreign airlines can send one flight a week to one city in China". So even if every airline chose Thailand as their designated country (obviously that won't happen as there are plenty of other places to fly) that would be 20 flights a week. In reality, maybe 2 or 3 a week. A drop in the ocean.

 

 

 

[Trillian]

11 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Not a total ban, but almost. It's called the five ones policy

 

https://loyaltylobby.com/2020/05/21/china-extends-international-flight-restrictions-until-october-2020/

 

"The Five Ones allow each Chinese airline to fly one route once a week to any one country. Foreign airlines can send one flight a week to one city in China". So even if every airline chose Thailand as their designated country (obviously that won't happen as there are plenty of other places to fly) that would be 20 flights a week. In reality, maybe 2 or 3 a week. A drop in the ocean.

 

 

 

Not just Chinese airlines but all airlines: https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/290625/chinas-airline-market-slowly-recovering/

[CygnusX1]

2 hours ago, JensenZ said:

Just one example - Australia. They have banned international travel until the end of October.

Is that October 2021 or October 2022?

We’ll be lucky if all domestic borders between Australian states are open by October 2020.

[Susco]

47 minutes ago, dallen52 said:

They have to get back in the air. Freight is always required internationally. 

Cargo planes never stopped flying

[dallen52]

21 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

I don't think a flight booking will offer any certainly of when you can fly.

 

My knowledge came from the mainstream Australia media. I read it and had no reason to believe they were lying. I did think it would be reviewed as the situation changes.

Whole heartedly agree.

I'm optimistic obviously for personal reasons. 

But looking around the globe many airlines are starting up early June.

Thai airways who I have a credit with (for what it's worth) stated June for Europe and other destinations. 

July with restricted services to Australia and other Asian countries. 

Melbourne and Sydney were indicated as possible. 

Several friends in the airline industry say it's ramping up from June 3rd. 

We can only hope.

I'm not a tourist.

Just want to get back to the family.

 

[dallen52]

6 minutes ago, CygnusX1 said:

Is that October 2021 or October 2022?

We’ll be lucky if all domestic borders between Australian states are open by October 2020.

Response to this and the previous post.

Travel is still possible. 

On application.

Compassionate grounds being one.

 

And obviously It requires the planes.

And approved by the government. 

 

As restrictions ease in Australia, so will restrictions on safe hub travel destinations. 

What Thailand wants to get back in is still the unknown quantity...

[Jack Cook]

So in essence Thailands tourism industry is effectively wiped out. Just the beginning of a Tusnami of pain coming to Thailand. Vietnam was a very wise choice after all.

 

[DUNROAMIN]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

I think it would be a mistake to think there will be no tourists this year, it's almost certain there will be and we may all be surprised at just how many.

Thailand being one of CCP's puppets, I think they will give a priority to Chinese tourists, after all, Thailand had removed China of the black list for Corona Virus, apparently, China has got the virus under control. If they believe that, then they have got rocks in their heads, and we stay home for longer with a second wave on its way.

[inwardglee]

As it is now, there are two standards in Thailand, one for Thais and one for "foreigners". Thais travel, foreign residents can't. - As example, Thais can take any road into Mae Hong Son province to my information, but a foreign resident in Thailand needs to apply for a entrance permit and then can only enter through Chiang Mai where he might be put into quarantine, at the goodwill of a doctor, to be sent to a quarantine hotel, at the given fee. - By such rules, the lifestyle of foreign frequent travellers in Thailand is of course totally overthrown, and if these rules remain, the future of foreigners in Thailand would be in designated "safe zones" only, the time of road trips a thing of the past. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by inwardglee

[spidermike007]

Tourism is not returning to Thailand anytime soon. If you think about it, the group that comprised perhaps 60% of all arrivals (lower to middle income Chinese and Indians) are the ones who have been hardest hit by this idiotic worldwide economic shutdown. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work. Most countries will still be required to have Covid letters, as the virus is still raging in many countries. And some countries will not issue that letter (impossible to get in the US). Plus, will the mandatory health insurance still be required? Will it be even stricter than before? There are so many unanswered questions, it boggles the mind. One thing is for certain. Thailand will be feeling the effects of this for a very, very long time. So will the rest of the world. 

 

I predict one to two million international tourism arrivals total, between now and the rest of the year. A truly devastating scenario for the industry that provided up to 20% of GDP. Expect the Thai economy to end up with negative 18% growth, year end. 

[spidermike007]

13 minutes ago, Jack Cook said:

So in essence Thailands tourism industry is effectively wiped out. Just the beginning of a Tusnami of pain coming to Thailand. Vietnam was a very wise choice after all.

 

A wise choice for what? Ex-pats? Vietnam was making moves to restrict the visa categories of ex-pats living there, long before Covid came along. They do not want the ex-pat community. Thailand does not want us either, but they are showing some tolerance towards us, at least so far. I will resist the idiots in charge as long as I have the power in my body. 

[Grumpy John]

If it comes out of TAT I truly believe that it is a number derived from the ramblings of the fortune teller they keep I'm the basement.  From Kasikorn different fortune teller different basement.   Some things are predictable, the sun will rise in the East, Thai people with bad teeth will not pay to go to dentist for necessary work,  more corporations will transfer production (jobs)  to more friendly countries.  As for the economy.....I can arrange a meeting with the Snake Princess on short notice.....but there is a fee for her services!

[Percy P]

3 hours ago, fred110 said:

And 2 weeks in quarantine! ????

Is the two weeks isolation on Thai expense.

[Traubert]

3 hours ago, Henryford said:

The Chinese will be exempt from any restrictions. Xi has confirmed there is no virus in China.

No he hasnt, there are 200 still critical in hospital. If you're going to tell lies, at least make them similar to the truth.

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

That is incorrect information, China has not banned international flights until October.

Not a ban, but far from business as usual:

 

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ofPp3L1CdDmN09u5IXk3zg

[NoshowJones]

4 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Look at them slowly change their statements.  

May recover next year.  Yeah, we all saw that coming.

There will be no tourism this year, full stop.  No country is foolish enough to let their residents to return from any vacation during a pandemic.  

The UK are.

[lensta]

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

The evidence from both Thailand and South Korea is that the virus doesn't like heat, humidity and wide-open spaces (like tropical beaches), but it just loves cool, crowded, enclosed spaces (like night clubs). Unfortunately, aircraft also fit that second description, which isn't good news for the rThe evidence from both Thailand and South Korea is that the virus doesn't like heateturn of international tourism.

Really??? Philippines, not hot and humid??? Saudi, not hot???? Australian summer, not hot???

[DefaultName]

We can argue until we're blue in the face but it won't matter.  What we have is what we have.  Hopefully sanity will prevail and things will reopen, hopefully no Chinese will come bringing a fresh influx of virus, hopefully the Indians will learn what a shower is for, but we can't influence any of that.

 

In the end, all we can do is to keep ourselves and those we care for safe. 

 

We're healthy, we're eating, we can drink at home, the weather is good, anything else is gravy.

[Henryford]

38 minutes ago, Traubert said:

No he hasnt, there are 200 still critical in hospital. If you're going to tell lies, at least make them similar to the truth.

Ever heard of sarcasm?

[Mikeasq60]

I dont know who comes up with these predictions for lost revenue my prediction is you open Thailand the tourists will come back quickly!