Thailand tourism to contract by 1.69 trillion baht this year – Kasikorn Research

[Oziex1]

19 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

I dont know who comes up with these predictions for lost revenue my prediction is you open Thailand the tourists will come back quickly!

I don't think your following the play. Its clear to most that no one is going anywhere any time soon.

[Greenhill]

I'm always sceptical of forecasting figures, especially to be so precise as 1.69 Trillion Bt.    It is obvious this is just a mathematical figure that someone's calculator just threw out without any common sense being applied.

 

I don't believe the figure but would it not have been more acceptable to put 'approximately 1.70 Trillion'?

 

No one can be so precise about a future figure!     Round it to the nearest 5 - would be much more believable.

[Fex Bluse]

Won't be nearly as many Chinese tourists now that the entire globe is moving away from them economically. The Chinese economy is going to be absolutely crushed. Thank god. 

[RichardColeman]

6 hours ago, dsj said:

Also if tourists needs a medical certificate, that will also keep the numbers down, as I believe you can't get a certificate right now.

You may well be able to get a test or even a certificate in the near future, but getting it and getting into Thailand within say 48 hours would be next to impossible

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

No he hasnt, there are 200 still critical in hospital. If you're going to tell lies, at least make them similar to the truth.

May I ask if you are from China? Or, are you a paid 'wumao'? It's highly unusual to find an expat who so vociferously defends a country that the entire world can see has been systematically lying. 

[JensenZ]

3 hours ago, dallen52 said:

Whole heartedly agree.

I'm optimistic obviously for personal reasons. 

But looking around the globe many airlines are starting up early June.

Thai airways who I have a credit with (for what it's worth) stated June for Europe and other destinations. 

July with restricted services to Australia and other Asian countries. 

Melbourne and Sydney were indicated as possible. 

Several friends in the airline industry say it's ramping up from June 3rd. 

We can only hope.

I'm not a tourist.

Just want to get back to the family.

 

Here's an older report (April 14) I managed to track down. The one I specifically referred to was a statement made by Mr Morrison late in April but I can no longer find it. Obviously things are constantly in flux and hard to predict, so I suppose we can't rely on any "news" we hear.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australias-tourism-minister-issues-warning-international-travel-unlikely-to-resume-until-at-least-2021/ar-BB12zRR6

Edited May 25, 2020 by JensenZ

[sambum]

"avoidance of contact with others"

 

That's what a lot of people come to Thailand for - especially Pattaya!

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by sambum

[JensenZ]

3 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

Is that October 2021 or October 2022?

We’ll be lucky if all domestic borders between Australian states are open by October 2020.

I heard/read it late last month, so it was talking about a 6 month ban on international travel.

Edited May 25, 2020 by JensenZ

[JensenZ]

57 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

Won't be nearly as many Chinese tourists now that the entire globe is moving away from them economically. The Chinese economy is going to be absolutely crushed. Thank god. 

So their threat to stop buying exports from Australia is just an excuse - the truth might actually be that they can't afford it? 

[JensenZ]

3 hours ago, dallen52 said:

Response to this and the previous post.

Travel is still possible. 

On application.

Compassionate grounds being one.

 

And obviously It requires the planes.

And approved by the government. 

 

As restrictions ease in Australia, so will restrictions on safe hub travel destinations. 

What Thailand wants to get back in is still the unknown quantity...

I think Thailand is going to be a tough country to assess for Western nations. They don't give out much information, only lots of blah, blah, blah. Are they anymore transparent here than in China?

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, Henryford said:

Ever heard of sarcasm?

Yes. That wasn't it.

[Mac98]

How will they enforce social distancing with the valued Chinese tourists who arrive on packed planes, travel in packed buses, stay in packed hotels, walk in packed groups, and climb over each other at the buffet? Answer: they won't. They will be too busy making sure a lone farang doesn't get within six feet of a bar girl, or having a beer on a deserted beach.

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, Fex Bluse said:

May I ask if you are from China? Or, are you a paid 'wumao'? It's highly unusual to find an expat who so vociferously defends a country that the entire world can see has been systematically lying. 

No I'm British. I live in China, along with my family who never foul the streets, spit or any of the other foul practices that all Chinese are accused of here daily.

 

The 'womao' myth was debunked by Harvard University several years ago who found that there were indeed several million  internet posts a day but they were mostly information posts by various local government departments..

 

Can you give more information on the lies apart from accusations by the American government?

[Fex Bluse]

13 minutes ago, Traubert said:

No I'm British. I live in China, along with my family who never foul the streets, spit or any of the other foul practices that all Chinese are accused of here daily.

 

The 'womao' myth was debunked by Harvard University several years ago who found that there were indeed several million  internet posts a day but they were mostly information posts by various local government departments..

 

Can you give more information on the lies apart from accusations by the American government?

I'll pray for you 

[geisha]

If the authorities had an ounce of good sense they would use this year to clean up the country, get those speedboats into a dock, fix the roads and pavements , smelly drains , and implement rules and order on the roads of death. 

[superal]

International travel this year carries to many risks . 1/ who knows if there will be a second wave of covid 19 ?

2/ many folks have lost money through cancelled flights and not had their money refunded so will not be taking a chance again . 3/ A great deal of uncertainty in the short term for flight compliance , especially in Thailand regarding health/covid 19 insurance and virus clear certs . 4/ Taking the UK as an example , holiday bookings by Brits for hols in the UK are 60% up on last years bookings so not looking to venture abroad . 

Things will not return to the norm until a vaccine or cure have been produced . 

   

[OutofSiam]

2 hours ago, Traubert said:

No I'm British. I live in China, along with my family who never foul the streets, spit or any of the other foul practices that all Chinese are accused of here daily.

 

The 'womao' myth was debunked by Harvard University several years ago who found that there were indeed several million  internet posts a day but they were mostly information posts by various local government departments..

 

Can you give more information on the lies apart from accusations by the American government?

Is this guy really trying to convince a forum full of expats who live in Asia that the Chinese don't spit?

[Brunolem]

32 minutes ago, superal said:

International travel this year carries to many risks . 1/ who knows if there will be a second wave of covid 19 ?

2/ many folks have lost money through cancelled flights and not had their money refunded so will not be taking a chance again . 3/ A great deal of uncertainty in the short term for flight compliance , especially in Thailand regarding health/covid 19 insurance and virus clear certs . 4/ Taking the UK as an example , holiday bookings by Brits for hols in the UK are 60% up on last years bookings so not looking to venture abroad . 

Things will not return to the norm until a vaccine or cure have been produced . 

   

I understand that the Brits who venture abroad have to go into quarantine when coming back home. 

 

This certainly is not encouraging people to cross borders. 

 

There won't be a vaccine... even Boris Johnson suggested it a few days ago, but the virus will probably go away by itself, like its predecessors. 

 

Who today is talking about SARS 1 or MERS? 

[Brunolem]

34 minutes ago, OutofSiam said:

Is this guy really trying to convince a forum full of expats who live in Asia that the Chinese don't spit?

He says that members of his family don't spit... maybe they are Singaporeans, having been taught the hard (and costly) way to keep their mouth closed! 

[connda]

But they had 2 new cases and a death.  Lock It Down!!!!!

(I wonder how many people got killed on Thai roads yesterday?)
shhh never-mind that.

[geisha]

Chinese will def be back, but not as many. Indians, doubt it , just the women staring lot maybe. Young backpackers who are after the Asia experience, sure, but the savvy travelers and repeat guests ,don’t think so.Thailand has spoilt everything that we came there for years back.

[Blumpie]

10 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And China has done the same yesterday:

no international flights before at least October...

Of course they are not going to have international flights till at least October.  And I would be very surprised to see if it doesn't get extended.  

If this pandemic plays out as it has been, no country will foolishly let their residents come back where they could be potentially infected, full stop.  In particular, there is no way, no way that China will either despite all this talk.  

You can think about this pandemic what you want to, the world is shut down till real control is established and I"m afraid it will not be in 2020.  The chances of having any kind of normal tourist year will nearly be zero.  

There will be no normalcy in Thailand, despite the writhing, hoping, and silliness coming out of "official" government agencies.  They know it, they are just slowly letting people realize this for obvious reasons.

[Artisi]

5 hours ago, geisha said:

If the authorities had an ounce of good sense they would use this year to clean up the country, get those speedboats into a dock, fix the roads and pavements , smelly drains , and implement rules and order on the roads of death. 

Wrong planet. 

[Brunolem]

36 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

Of course they are not going to have international flights till at least October.  And I would be very surprised to see if it doesn't get extended.  

If this pandemic plays out as it has been, no country will foolishly let their residents come back where they could be potentially infected, full stop.  In particular, there is no way, no way that China will either despite all this talk.  

You can think about this pandemic what you want to, the world is shut down till real control is established and I"m afraid it will not be in 2020.  The chances of having any kind of normal tourist year will nearly be zero.  

There will be no normalcy in Thailand, despite the writhing, hoping, and silliness coming out of "official" government agencies.  They know it, they are just slowly letting people realize this for obvious reasons.

And I am afraid Thailand is heading toward a massive economic depression. 

 

Thailand was spared by the virus, but it is not going to be spared by the financial tsunami. 

[Trillian]

7 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And I am afraid Thailand is heading toward a massive economic depression. 

 

Thailand was spared by the virus, but it is not going to be spared by the financial tsunami. 

The facts so far suggest that wont happen, not even close, even with an extra trillion dollars of debt it's still only 52% of GDP. Exports and the currency are still very strong but there's still some way to go before the picture is entirely clear. BOT is estimating a 5% fall in GDP growth for 2020 which puts the country at -2.8 for the year, that's not even close to a depression and certainly not a financial tsunami.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Pages/default.aspx

 

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/77451-bank-of-thailand-projects-2-8-economic-growth-for-2020.html

[uli65]

8 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And I am afraid Thailand is heading toward a massive economic depression. 

 

Thailand was spared by the virus, but it is not going to be spared by the financial tsunami. 

you are are right, this country is already in deep recession, the fake number about the economy made by the government will not change this fact, I guess the freefall will accelerate in the next month.

and of course hoping for the baht crash to get my stolen money back.

[QPRFC]

They could always sell off Thai Airways to raise funds for the country (cough cough, politicians). 

Or let it go bankrupt and start it up again using the existing assets....then they can still keep the free first class flights for all family members!

Who needs tourists to line their own pockets!! 

[BritManToo]

On 5/25/2020 at 3:22 AM, webfact said:

Tourism operators, said the research centre, must adjust their service format and focus on safety in hotels, at tourist destinations and when travelling, online check-ins, temperature screenings and avoidance of contact with others.

I'd have thought cutting your outgoings would be the most important.

Sack all your staff, let the rented premises go ...........

Edited May 26, 2020 by BritManToo

[superal]

15 hours ago, Brunolem said:

I understand that the Brits who venture abroad have to go into quarantine when coming back home. 

 

This certainly is not encouraging people to cross borders. 

 

There won't be a vaccine... even Boris Johnson suggested it a few days ago, but the virus will probably go away by itself, like its predecessors. 

 

Who today is talking about SARS 1 or MERS? 

Well the news on the block in case you have not heard is that Oxford University is well on the way to produce a vaccine http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-22-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begin-phase-iiiii-human-trials . 

Brits start the quarantine on June 8th ( beyond comprehension ) to start containment and the herd community system it seems . 

International travel will be dead for some time with the virus still very active in Europe . Just got to right off travel for the present with many airlines going bust and no point in saving them cos no business in the near future at least .

 

[Brunolem]

4 hours ago, Trillian said:

The facts so far suggest that wont happen, not even close, even with an extra trillion dollars of debt it's still only 52% of GDP. Exports and the currency are still very strong but there's still some way to go before the picture is entirely clear. BOT is estimating a 5% fall in GDP growth for 2020 which puts the country at -2.8 for the year, that's not even close to a depression and certainly not a financial tsunami.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Pages/default.aspx

 

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/economics/77451-bank-of-thailand-projects-2-8-economic-growth-for-2020.html

With tourism and related activities, representing close to 20% of GDP, at a complete standstill, one can wonder how the total GDP could fall by only 2.8%...a performance that would be far better than that of the developed world.

 

On top of that, I don't know if you have noticed, but despite the reopening, very little is moving in Thailand.

 

A friend of mine sends me daily videos from Pattaya...no cars and bikes on the roads, not a soul in the malls...feels like an end of the world movie.

 

In Ubon, things are very similar...the road traffic is not half the usual, malls and restaurants are empty.

 

When will it restart...if it restarts...and what is going to be the impact on GDP? 

Not 2.8%...