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Thailand tourism to contract by 1.69 trillion baht this year – Kasikorn Research


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11 minutes ago, superal said:

Well the news on the block in case you have not heard is that Oxford University is well on the way to produce a vaccine http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-22-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begin-phase-iiiii-human-trials . 

Brits start the quarantine on June 8th ( beyond comprehension ) to start containment and the herd community system it seems . 

International travel will be dead for some time with the virus still very active in Europe . Just got to right off travel for the present with many airlines going bust and no point in saving them cos no business in the near future at least .

 

Things are not looking so rosy anymore for Oxford University...

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/23/oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-trial-has-50-per-cent-chance/

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On 5/25/2020 at 10:07 AM, dallen52 said:

Global figures show that seasonal flu is behind the covid19 number. 

In Thailand it's possible that respiratory failure attributed to whatever, may add to this total. 

 

Oddly the road toll of 60 deaths daily average, or 24,000 a year, doesn't cause a ripple in social circles.

Just a part of every day life in Thailand. 

Road deaths are not contagious. Don't you understand that? Why are you still peddling dumb comparisons? 

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On 5/25/2020 at 10:15 AM, dallen52 said:

Still not sure where the "knowledgeable" keep plucking the October date?

 

Most international airlines are ramping up from June. 

Even Thai airways has schedules showing from July. 

Restricted locations and flights. 

 

They have to get back in the air. Freight is always required internationally. 

Plus the longer planes sit idle, the harder it gets to bring them into service. 

 

July with common sense restrictions is good for me. 

I can get back to the family hopefully, along with many other people. 

Screenshot_20200515-121445_Chrome.jpg

Go and book! There will be no flight. Good luck with your refund. All wishful thinking. You're not permitted to depart your convict colony anyway until October at the very least. You might get as far as bubble NZ, by Xmas.

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22 hours ago, DefaultName said:

We can argue until we're blue in the face but it won't matter.  What we have is what we have.  Hopefully sanity will prevail and things will reopen, hopefully no Chinese will come bringing a fresh influx of virus, hopefully the Indians will learn what a shower is for, but we can't influence any of that.

 

In the end, all we can do is to keep ourselves and those we care for safe. 

 

We're healthy, we're eating, we can drink at home, the weather is good, anything else is gravy.

Very succinctly put. Fully agree.

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1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

There was never going to be a vaccine that completely stops the virus . Despite the infections to the monkeys the human trials continue . The thinking is that the bodies immune system that has the vaccine will be prepared to fight the virus if and when you are infected , so in effect you will still have symptoms but the much better chance to defeat the virus similarly to the common cold . I seem to recall that what the university are attempting is to defeat the corona , or the part that sticks out with the small dot at the end . That is what is causing the damage apparently . Lets hope and pray a vaccine or cure is imminent .

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Just on getting the Fa-rang back to Thailand: simple just get the Baht down. same goes for Thai exports of course of which Tourism is one. The Baht high rate is damaging everything and Europeans can go to Spain, Italy and Greece and enjoy cheaper prices, sunny beaches, progressive approach to clubs & drinking etc. Long haul flights to Thailand during peak times were getting ridiculous too especially at Xmas & summer holidays. How can Brits for example come at 38 baht to pound. !0 yrs ago it was circa 55 baht. Why oh why does Thailand keep its currency - one of the highest in South East Asia. No wonder Vietnam is popular.  

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On 5/26/2020 at 10:08 AM, Brunolem said:

With tourism and related activities, representing close to 20% of GDP, at a complete standstill, one can wonder how the total GDP could fall by only 2.8%...a performance that would be far better than that of the developed world.

 

On top of that, I don't know if you have noticed, but despite the reopening, very little is moving in Thailand.

 

A friend of mine sends me daily videos from Pattaya...no cars and bikes on the roads, not a soul in the malls...feels like an end of the world movie.

 

In Ubon, things are very similar...the road traffic is not half the usual, malls and restaurants are empty.

 

When will it restart...if it restarts...and what is going to be the impact on GDP? 

Not 2.8%...

 

Tourism accounts for 20% of exports and exports represent 60% of GDP, it is not correct to say that tourism represents 20% of GDP, it is far closer to 12%.

 

And I did not say that GDP will fall by 2.8%, I wrote, "BOT is estimating a 5% fall in GDP growth for 2020 which puts the country at -2.8 for the year".

 

In calculating the loss of GDP it's important to note that fiscal performance during the first three months of the year was very good, although the full extent of losses can't be accurately calculated until the entire year is reported. But exports in April were up on the previous year and the prospect of tourism, international AND improved domestic tourism, is starting to show faint (or perhaps it's feint) signs of life. 

 

 

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21 hours ago, peter48 said:

Just on getting the Fa-rang back to Thailand: simple just get the Baht down. same goes for Thai exports of course of which Tourism is one. The Baht high rate is damaging everything and Europeans can go to Spain, Italy and Greece and enjoy cheaper prices, sunny beaches, progressive approach to clubs & drinking etc. Long haul flights to Thailand during peak times were getting ridiculous too especially at Xmas & summer holidays. How can Brits for example come at 38 baht to pound. !0 yrs ago it was circa 55 baht. Why oh why does Thailand keep its currency - one of the highest in South East Asia. No wonder Vietnam is popular.  

You can't sensibly compare the economies of Vietnam and Thailand because they are both at very different stages of development and value. Vietnam's economy is still emerging and its GDP  is worth less than half of Thailand's USD 500+ bill., plus, Vietnam is suffering from almost 4% annual inflation compared to Thailand's sub 1%. A strong and stable currency such as the Baht is a sign of a strong economy, the Dong is not strong and stable.

 

Sure Vietnam can be cheaper as a holiday destination but there's no reason why Thailand should devalue its currency, just to attract a few British tourists. The real problem of course is that the Pound is extremely weak and until the whole Brexit affair is sorted out and new trade figures prove to the world that Brexit was actually worth it in monetary terms, nothing is going to change on the Pound Baht exchange rate, if ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, Trillian said:

You can't sensibly compare the economies of Vietnam and Thailand because they are both at very different stages of development and value. Vietnam's economy is still emerging and its GDP  is worth less than half of Thailand's USD 500+ bill., plus, Vietnam is suffering from almost 4% annual inflation compared to Thailand's sub 1%. A strong and stable currency such as the Baht is a sign of a strong economy, the Dong is not strong and stable.

 

Sure Vietnam can be cheaper as a holiday destination but there's no reason why Thailand should devalue its currency, just to attract a few British tourists. The real problem of course is that the Pound is extremely weak and until the whole Brexit affair is sorted out and new trade figures prove to the world that Brexit was actually worth it in monetary terms, nothing is going to change on the Pound Baht exchange rate, if ever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree

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