Life after coronavirus: Future of Thai tourism industry is in Chinese hands, and phones

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

I've lived and worked in Beijing for two years and I'm now on secondment in Bangkok, I work with Chinese people and have several Chinese friends, my experience of them is that there is far more that binds us than separates us.

 

I understand the frustration some people may feel by living in tourist towns and being subject to tour groups and all that entails. But to be honest, it's a very narrow view, the fact is many are first time tourists whereas the expats posting here are a more experienced variety. I imagine the residents of Marbella, Malaga and Torremolinos probably felt the same way when plane hoards of British and Germans tourists on package tourists began arriving in the 1970's.

     Good post.  I live in Pattaya and I probably have complained at some point about all the tourists.  But, now that they aren't here I want them back.  And, Pattaya needs them back because without them it's really way too quiet. (I refuse to say 'dead' and give the 'Pattaya is Dead' squad any satisfaction.)  The quiet was nice for awhile (it's so quiet I can hear the waves on Pattaya Beach) but I miss the liveliness the tourists bring.  And, I realize that things I enjoy as a year-round resident--like all the shops and restaurants in Terminal 21--are here because of the tourists and likely will only stay open and be in business with the return of the tourists.

[Isaan sailor]

As long as the USD remains down—they will use it as an excuse to open the Chinese floodgates.

[5633572526]

On 5/25/2020 at 5:38 AM, JCP108 said:

So, they want to attract social media influencers. Does that mean they will stop going after such people for working in Thailand without a work permit? Some farangs have been threatened with deportation if they don't demonetize their online videoblog channels. 

Fake news

[mikebell]

On 5/25/2020 at 6:29 AM, scorecard said:

That money feeds and clothes Thai families and pays school fees, puts gasoline in the tank of the family motorcycle etc.  

The same could be said of long-stay ex-pats but I see no evidence of a red carpet being rolled out for us.

[Olmate]

1 hour ago, newnative said:

     Good post.  I live in Pattaya and I probably have complained at some point about all the tourists.  But, now that they aren't here I want them back.  And, Pattaya needs them back because without them it's really way too quiet. (I refuse to say 'dead' and give the 'Pattaya is Dead' squad any satisfaction.)  The quiet was nice for awhile (it's so quiet I can hear the waves on Pattaya Beach) but I miss the liveliness the tourists bring.  And, I realize that things I enjoy as a year-round resident--like all the shops and restaurants in Terminal 21--are here because of the tourists and likely will only stay open and be in business with the return of the tourists.

The shops in terminal 21? ...now that is critical!

[Caine]

China will not exist in 5yrs time, the rest of the world including Russia will nuke them off the planet as a revenge for their deliberate attempt at germ warfare. 

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Olmate said:

The shops in terminal 21? ...now that is critical!

And restaurants, movie theater, grocery, etc. 

[Rancid]

The reality is that China is where Thailand looks for tourist (and probably business) expansion, and no longer the West. Whatever expats may think about that wont change it. If you don't want to be buried under the Chinese hordes then perhaps think about what region you choose to live, if its already popular with Chinese it will likely get worse. Still plenty of spots not yet on their radar...

[tomauasia]

22 hours ago, gerritkaew said:

yes Chinese good for business, come on over and bring corona to thailand and the rest off the world, good job

 

18 hours ago, NB1986 said:

The Chinese economy will get hit hard by US trade war, not only that their "pride" Huawei is in big troubles as they will not get access anymore to 5nm chips so they will have to make their own which are 10 times slower, also European countries started to kicking out Huawei and their 5G technology, 10 s of thousands people are finding work and accept work even without insurance for roughly 300us dollars per month i dont know guys what u looking at... But try to look some independent source and you will see that China is in very big troubles but ofcourse CCP will not show that. And if they were before 0 dollar tourists what u expecting now? They will bring food with themselves barely go eat anywhere...the hotels? Mostly chinese owners which will give discount regarding on situation, so i really dont know how TAT is so relying on Chinese... Do they read the Independent news?? Or they are just making Thai people stupid and false hope that tourism will survive... Prayut and his Chinese co-operators ruined Thai tourism, Thai economy, now he will get 20 million of hungry people without work and what he is saying Chinese will save us... Well yes he will sell everything for peanuts and Thailand will became a colony of China before people realise what was happened it will be too late, same as Shianoukville and many other places where Chinese horde came. 

Yes peasants now the Thai gov are not well educated army stock. Let's leave it at that

[texascsa]

The Chinese tourists are Cheap Charlies. They dine in restaurants owned by Chinese. They can only own 49.999% of restaurants but Chinese Thais who own the more than half are stand-ins for the Government of China. These tourists make a mess everywhere they go. But catering to these Cheap Charlies will continue.

[Trillian]

19 minutes ago, texascsa said:

The Chinese tourists are Cheap Charlies. They dine in restaurants owned by Chinese. They can only own 49.999% of restaurants but Chinese Thais who own the more than half are stand-ins for the Government of China. These tourists make a mess everywhere they go. But catering to these Cheap Charlies will continue.

You're moving in the wrong circles and meeting the wrong people otherwise you'd have a different opinion, try changing your lifestyle. 

[Tony125]

Nearly two-thirds of Brits living abroad 'vow never to return to UK'

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nearly-two-thirds-of-brits-living-abroad-vow-never-to-return-to-uk-160905675.html

[SpanishExpat]

Maybe someone should forward the TAT this article ????

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/05/21/international-flight-restrictions-continue-through-october

 

China is not even thinking of letting the masses to travel abroad. If they really stick to that good luck Thailand. They would have close to zero Tourism until autumn!

[Chelseafan]

On 5/25/2020 at 1:39 AM, Trillian said:

I don't believe the number is as high as that. Exports, including tourism, accounts for about 60% of Thailand's GDP whilst tourism itself is about 20% of the export figure. In total tourism is about 12% of Thai GDP. 

 

There seems to have been about 12 million Chinese visitors per year to Thailand before the virus began, I think that's about a quarter of all visitors or slightly over. If those things are true and spending is broadly similar, it looks as though Chinese tourism contributes around 3% to Thai GDP, give or take a % or so.

 

Personally I think 12% GDP is understated. Westerners tend to spend their money using cash, gogos, bars, girls, massage, food etc where as Asians tend to use plastic which is easier to track and report to the authorities. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think that farang spend is being reported in the figures unless the girls are doing tax returns of course....

 

The Chinese may have the numbers but there's been a lot of debate about how much Chinese money actually trickles down to the man on the street. Zero dollar tours for example....

 

 

 

[Chelseafan]

On 5/25/2020 at 3:28 AM, SuwadeeS said:

It's quite stupid to rely on China.

As everybody sees now, China is responsible for so much problems in the world.

Human right issues.

Counterfeit.

Intellectual property stealing.

CCP virus.

Spy on people as same as the "Srasi"

 

And so on.

 

A match made in heaven then ????

[Chelseafan]

On 5/25/2020 at 3:31 AM, newnative said:

  Wondered when the ridiculous zero dollar tourism canard would appear--as it always does with a tourism thread.   Guess you missed the part about 1 in 10 Thais being employed by tourism.  If zero dollars stay in Thailand, how are these 1 in 10 Thais being paid?

As its name suggests, zero-dollar tourism refers to packaged tours which are much less expensive than independent travel with one catch: tourists are taken on many shopping trips and are often required to buy overpriced products. Tour guides and drivers get a kickback from these shopping excursions, offsetting the loss on the tour’s initial cost. 

 

In most cases, these shops are Chinese-owned and the money tourists spend is diverted back to China. With more shops utilising mobile payments through WeChat Pay and Alipay, the payments don’t even have to be converted into local currency, avoiding foreign exchange fees that would normally go to local money changers.

 

In 2016, the Thai government decided to stamp out zero-dollar tourism, estimating losses of US$2 billion each year in tax revenue. Three companies were shut down, 2,155 buses were seized and several people were arrested for money laundering and operating illegal low-quality tours. 

 

https://theaseanpost.com/article/made-china-zero-dollar-tourists

Edited May 26, 2020 by Chelseafan

[Chelseafan]

On 5/25/2020 at 4:52 AM, Trillian said:

It's the bottom line that counts and currently that is Chinese tourists in total who spend more than those of any other nation, second place doesn't matter and is over 15% lower.

 

 

 

For sure but that is a very narrow view. What if, in the future China decide to ban their citizens from visiting Thailand. It's happened before. If the Thais were senssible they would be spreading their bets.

 

 

[jimmyswale]

If you don't like the Chinese probably time to get your bags packed and get out of dodge cos you'll be living in a suburb  Greater China. Good luck !

[Trillian]

2 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

Personally I think 12% GDP is understated. Westerners tend to spend their money using cash, gogos, bars, girls, massage, food etc where as Asians tend to use plastic which is easier to track and report to the authorities. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think that farang spend is being reported in the figures unless the girls are doing tax returns of course....

 

The Chinese may have the numbers but there's been a lot of debate about how much Chinese money actually trickles down to the man on the street. Zero dollar tours for example....

 

 

 

As you point out in a subsequent post, zero dollar tours seem to have been brought to an end in 2016, I don't think that's a major issue any longer.

 

AS I wrote earlier I work with quite a few Chinese people in Bangkok at present plus I have several Chinese friends from my time in Beijing. The Chinese have a dislike of banks everywhere, especially in China and this has now extended to their temporary homes in Thailand and almost none of them have bank accounts here and prefer to use cash for everything. This has a lot to do with traceability and reporting because they're only allowed to export a maximum of USD 50k per year from China and if they exceed the limit the bank will report them - for most of them there is no secret back door option, that's just for the big money people. So even though they are paying around THB 250k per term/child for their children's schooling at private schools in Thailand, this is all paid in cash....everything is cash, none of it is on plastic.

 

And they get ripped off massively by Thai people, sometimes horrendously so. I went for dinner at the home of one Chinese couple and my work colleagues wife mentioned she gets a delivery of Chinese vegetables once a week from a local Thai and she pays over THB 1,200 for some lettuce, cabbage and a few other things. Their rent is always through a Thai middle man who inserts himself in a chain and bumps up a THB 45k rent to THB 70k, ditto utility costs. From what I can see their situation is not unusual and mirrors what I've seen elsewhere when it comes to them being targeted as an ATM. You'd be surprised how many middle class Chinese live in Thailand, mostly for the sake of their young children's schooling which they regard as far superior to China because it is unrestricted learning.

 

 

 

  

[Logosone]

On 5/25/2020 at 9:48 PM, newnative said:

     You're making the argument that European, American, and Australian tourists 'matter most', in your words, because the combined spending of these three segments totals 641,318 millions.  True, more than China's single segment of 543,707 millions.  (I think to be fair in assessing which tourists 'matter most', the graph really should be tourist spending by country rather than region. )  

     However, using your combination method, if you combine the three non-China Asian segments--ASEAN, Rest East Asia, and South Asia, you get 677, 210 millions.  While you might want American, European, and Australian tourists to 'matter most', adding all three together comes up short at 641,318 millions.  Adding China to the other Asian segments gets you a whopping 1,220,917 millions.  So, it seems clear that tourists from Asian countries are actually the ones that 'matter most'--but tourists from Europe and other regions are certainly still important.  

See, I would add ASEAN, Rest of Asia and South Asia to the American, European and Australian contingent. Why would you add it to the Chinese? The question was if it was sensible to pursue Chinese tourists and not others. However, all the other groups outspend Chinese tourists.

 

It's not a race competition, it's a question of economically does pursuing only China make sense?

 

The other blocks combined spend 1,375,662 million Baht, China spends 543,707 million. So China spends around 28 % of all tourist dollars spent in Thailand.

 

We've seen that on a per capita basis China is in sixth place. 

 

I don't see how pursuing China alone makes economic sense for Thailand. I'd say China's importance is overestimated. They are important, but so are all the others. China is not so important that it would be justifiable to focus only on them.

 

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

Edited May 27, 2020 by Logosone

[Trillian]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

I don't see how pursuing China alone makes economic sense for Thailand.

What makes you think they are pursuing only the Chinese?

[Olmate]

16 hours ago, Trillian said:

You're moving in the wrong circles and meeting the wrong people otherwise you'd have a different opinion, try changing your lifestyle. 

 

20 minutes ago, Trillian said:

What makes you think they are pursuing only the Chinese?

 

[Trillian]

12 minutes ago, Olmate said:

 

 

Presumably you think those two statements are at odds with each other, why?

[Olmate]

8 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Presumably you think those two statements are at odds with each other, why?

Two bob each way! You don,t seriously think Chinese are favoured market of TAT?

[newnative]

5 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

As its name suggests, zero-dollar tourism refers to packaged tours which are much less expensive than independent travel with one catch: tourists are taken on many shopping trips and are often required to buy overpriced products. Tour guides and drivers get a kickback from these shopping excursions, offsetting the loss on the tour’s initial cost. 

 

In most cases, these shops are Chinese-owned and the money tourists spend is diverted back to China. With more shops utilising mobile payments through WeChat Pay and Alipay, the payments don’t even have to be converted into local currency, avoiding foreign exchange fees that would normally go to local money changers.

 

In 2016, the Thai government decided to stamp out zero-dollar tourism, estimating losses of US$2 billion each year in tax revenue. Three companies were shut down, 2,155 buses were seized and several people were arrested for money laundering and operating illegal low-quality tours. 

 

https://theaseanpost.com/article/made-china-zero-dollar-tourists

     I think the term 'zero dollar tourism' has evolved to refer to more than just the tours that you describe.  But, even if it just applies to that type, my point is still valid that these tours do contribute to the local economy.  So what if the hotels and the restaurants in Pattaya are Chinese-owned; certainly not the local Thai worker who gets hired.   They still need to be staffed with local workers, who all earn money, which they spend in Thailand, which helps other Thais.  The bus drivers and boat operators are still Thai, and the workers at tourist stops, shops, etc.  Most not high-paying jobs but jobs, never-the-less, that do contribute to the health of the local economy.   

[Trillian]

3 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Two bob each way! You don,t seriously think Chinese are favoured market of TAT?

Ummmm!

 

An earlier poster suggested it was foolish for TAT to be pursuing only the Chinese as tourists, I subsequently asked why that poster thought they were doing that!

 

I personally believe TAT pursues lots of countries and not just China, if that helps clear up the confusion on this.

[newnative]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

See, I would add ASEAN, Rest of Asia and South Asia to the American, European and Australian contingent. Why would you add it to the Chinese? The question was if it was sensible to pursue Chinese tourists and not others. However, all the other groups outspend Chinese tourists.

 

It's not a race competition, it's a question of economically does pursuing only China make sense?

 

The other blocks combined spend 1,375,662 million Baht, China spends 543,707 million. So China spends around 28 % of all tourist dollars spent in Thailand.

 

We've seen that on a per capita basis China is in sixth place. 

 

I don't see how pursuing China alone makes economic sense for Thailand. I'd say China's importance is overestimated. They are important, but so are all the others. China is not so important that it would be justifiable to focus only on them.

 

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

        If you read any of my tourism posts pre-covid, you will not find one advocating that Thailand should focus on China, spend any TAT funds on China, or pursue Chinese tourists and not others.  On the contrary, in fact.  With almost 1.5 billion people a relatively short plane ride away, the Chinese tourism market, in my opinion, in normal times would take care of itself for years to come with minimum assistance from TAT.

       You've made the argument that European, American, and Australian tourists 'matter most'.  I disagree.  Currently, for Thailand, China and the three other Asian segments I mentioned 'matter most' in terms of the revenue they bring in-- far more than your 3 segments.  However, that does not mean I think Thailand should focus only on nearby countries.  Instead, in normal times they should, indeed focus most on your three segments, which are important.  Diversity in tourists is a good thing.

    These are not normal times, of course, and in the near-term I think it's wise for Thailand to perform emergency triage on its tourism and focus on tourists that are only a relatively short plane ride away--China and the other three Asian segments.  Some of these countries have had low covid numbers and it's likely going to be an easier sell to get a tourist on a plane for a few hours vs. much longer flights from other western destinations.  I'm American but I don't see myself sitting on a plane in tight quarters for a 20 hour flight to the US east coast any time soon.  But, I can see a shorter  plane trip to Shanghai, Saigon, and other closer destinations.

[Traubert]

22 hours ago, texascsa said:

The Chinese tourists are Cheap Charlies. They dine in restaurants owned by Chinese. They can only own 49.999% of restaurants but Chinese Thais who own the more than half are stand-ins for the Government of China. These tourists make a mess everywhere they go. But catering to these Cheap Charlies will continue.

Keep the TV myths coming. It makes me laugh.

[Traubert]

11 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

. Zero dollar tours for example....

 

 

 

Zero dollar tourism was largely wiped out in 2008.

[Chelseafan]

4 hours ago, Traubert said:

Zero dollar tourism was largely wiped out in 2008.

That's sarcasm right?