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Thai economy could take more than 2 years to recover: Standard Chartered

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Thai economy could take more than 2 years to recover: Standard Chartered

By THE NATION

 

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Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai)

 

Standard Chartered Bank today (May 28) said it remains conservative on Thailand’s economic outlook, even as positive signs emerge with the possibility of a further policy rate cut to below 0.25 per cent.

 

The return to pre-Covid levels of economic activity could take more than two years on the back of improving business sentiment as the economy reopens, the bank assessed, adding the government has been disbursing cash handouts to pandemic-affected households since April.

 

Standard Chartered forecast Thailand’s 2020 GDP to contract by 5 per cent, with a sharp contraction of 13 per cent in the second quarter, followed by a gradual recovery in the second half of the year.

 

“The export sector is showing signs of recovery and should benefit from China’s resumption of activity and the easing of lockdowns in other markets. Data released in June is likely to confirm a domestic demand recovery after Thailand’s reopening in May. However, we expect the pace of recovery to be slow,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai).

 

“Investment is unlikely to recover until next year or later as Covid-19 is likely to exacerbate existing delays in private and government investment and initiatives, keeping the economy below potential.”

 

Thailand’s first quarter gross domestic product contracted by 1.8 per cent on year (2.2 per cent contraction on quarter, seasonally adjusted) versus the consensus of a 3.9 per cent contraction on year (4.2 per cent contraction on quarter). This was the first year-on-year contraction since early 2014.

 

"We expect another 25bps rate cut in the third quarter, taking the policy rate to 0.25 per cent. We also do not rule out further policy rate cuts to below 0.25 per cent, however. Negative rates are unlikely but not off the table,” added Tim.

 

Standard Chartered said economic growth is far below Thailand’s potential rate of 4 per cent, and headline inflation is below the Bank of Thailand’s 1-3 per cent target range.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30388661

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-05-28
 

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2 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

They dont "do" that. 

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26 minutes ago, CGW said:

I agree with his opinion, do you have any "sources" to back up your claim?

Seems to be the new TVF go to if you disagree with someones opinion, are personal opinions no longer allowed, back up your "claim" with the nonsense that the MSM spews out instead! 🙂 

To many it is the "apocalypse" have you not realised that yet?

Do you have opinions of your own or wait to ride on the back of those that do have them, go ahead and think for yourself, its free & allowed - for now! 🤔

You're rather aggressive, but hey - I'll bite!

Have you ever entertained the notion that this might well be the second wave of Covd19, and therefore the worst and that things will get better from here on in?

 

Isn't that altogether more positive?

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12 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

Sharp rise ?

 

baht.thumb.jpg.6a214bacc1427805c107ad3d5ee541a0.jpg

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  • Confused 1

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