Jump to content

Thai economy could take more than 2 years to recover: Standard Chartered


webfact

Recommended Posts

17 hours ago, seajae said:

hopefully this means the baht will drop in value but as most countries are suffering it may take some time to happen.

The Thai baht is a protected species... nothing seems to have an affect on it, unless it's an upward trend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The recent appreciation of the Baht vs USD makes you wonder—why?  According to a Bloomberg article yesterday, China has made moves to reduce its currency value—to better dominate world trade. And the USD dipped in sympathy.  Other western currencies should eventually fall, too.  Somehow, the Baht stays strong.  Do international traders really see Thailand as a stable economy?  Do they find Thai interest rates attractive?  Do they believe Thailand has conquered Wuhan virus? Do they realize an overpriced Baht can only hurt this economy? I’m at a loss to explain this.

Edited by Isaan sailor
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Don Mega said:

Sharp rise ?

 

baht.thumb.jpg.6a214bacc1427805c107ad3d5ee541a0.jpg

Yes, Sharp Rise of the baht on the USD. It means a lower value of USD on thai baht.

If the little number in the diagram drops, it means that the thai baht becomes stronger.

In other words, I need less baht to buy 1 dollar.

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tourists do not focus on exchange rates (baht against other currencies) as much as retirees.

 

As a retiree, I am interested in the exchange rate because the amount of my pension depends on it.

 

But as a tourist, I don't care so much.

 

If I want to travel to Indonesia, I am not going to start studying the historical exchange rate between the baht and the rupiah, and base my decision on that.

 

As a matter of fact, I have often seen tourists discovering the baht rate when they were standing in front of an exchange booth, having no prior idea of how much they were going to get for their 100 USD or Euro note.

 

A high baht probably has far more negative influence on exports of products where the price is all that matters (rice...), than on tourism where there is more flexibility (a 5% higher baht can be compensated by chosing a 5% cheaper hotel, for example).

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Do international traders really see Thailand as a stable economy?

Do they find Thai interest rates attractive?  

Do they believe Thailand has conquered Wuhan virus?

Do they realize an overpriced Baht can only hurt this economy? 

Yes, yes, yes and what would be a fairly priced exchange rate for the baht?

 

"overpriced" compared to what reference?

 

The baht was at 25 against the USD for a very long time, up until the 1997-1998 financial crisis.

 

Then the exchange rate shot up to double that, and since the mid 00s, it has constantly improved, as if it was trying to go back to its former value.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So many expats are mired in what used to be, they want (their) good times back again, they can't forget that in 1997 they got 85 to the Pound and they expect those days to return. Meanwhile the Thai economy and the value of the Baht marches onwards, What can be said, the writing was writ large on the wall for many years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, seajae said:

this will happen in many countries after covid, Thailand is a cash economy and as many were unable to work during the lock down the cash has dried up so it will take some time for people to be able to start spending again. Then you have tourism which is a big factor in Thailands economy as well, until people from overseas are confident enough to return and have the money to spend Thailand will strugle, hopefully this means the baht will drop in value but as most countries are suffering it may take some time to happen. If the baht does drop it may mean a quicker recovery too, the strength of the baht means people from overseas are looking elsewhere to holiday so once people feel safe a lower baht may draw them back to Thailand but the govt really needs to pull its finger out and make it more hospitable too foreigners as well, especially the western countries which the govt seems to have a dislike for

I have two friends that used to come to Thailand from the UK regularly, about three times a year, year after year. They come no more. Reasons are exactly what you say - strength of the Baht and attitude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This must be a really smart and clever economist. He has figured out that the situtation is bad, and that it´s going to take long time to recover. Hillarious! Next he can apply for a job as clown at the nearest circus. At least he is entertaining and has that going for him. I can se a star spangled career for him!

 

14 hours ago, Don Mega said:

2 years is pretty good considering most other countries will take 5 to 10 atleast, if at all.

And now over to Don Mega. Why would some countries not recover at all? Where do you get that from? Also 5 - 10 years for most other countries? Are you an economic scientist?
 

5 hours ago, Don Mega said:

Sharp rise ?

 

Why does everybody always bother to compare Thai baht with the US dollar? We all know that the baht is connected to the dollar, and they will always be a bad choice to compare to see the real ups and downs in the world economy. Let´s look at this instead:

What is it that have made the pound fall from about 41 to 39 from Februari until today?
What is it that made the euro fall from about 36,50 to 35 from April until today?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thailand is highly dependent on tourism so if it keeps shutting its economy to international travel by 14 day quarantine, covid health insurance etc, I don't think it will recover soon.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

 

Everything is relative to each other.

 

The world is controlled by currency speculators and not by actual market, that's what I gathered.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

 

And now over to Don Mega. Why would some countries not recover at all? Where do you get that from? Also 5 - 10 years for most other countries? Are you an economic scientist?
 

The recent past can help answering that.

 

After the 2008-2009 crisis, it took the EU more than 7 years to recover to where it was in 2007.

 

And that was for the EU as a whole, but countries like Italy, the third largest economy of the block, still had not recovered by the time the virus crisis arrived (its GDP for 2018 was below that of 2007).

 

Now, the ongoing crisis is far worse than the one of 2008-2009, and the economic situation before today's crisis was far worse than what it was in 2007.

 

So, it is not really difficult to forecast that countries saddled with mountains of debt and ultra low or even negative interest rates, will have a very hard time to recover.

 

Many official organizations, always optimistic, are already talking about 3 to 4 years to recover, while many independent economists, less optimistic, expect the crisis to last much longer than that.

 

There you have it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its all very strange......

 

The Thai Central Bank has control over the exchange rate, even thought I have seen over the last 12 month so many many shop shut down because of bad economy, the tourist industry went downwards, but they still keep the Baht up. Actually the Thai Baht should be 50 Baht for 1 US$.

I do not understand the number of economy down of only 5 or 8 %, even I have studied this subject in university, I can not believe it. But I do believe these numbers are made up to please some superiors. I would say the number of GDP is more around minus 60%, because of the impact to the indirect businesses of tourism e.g. Restaurants, tour operators, clothes sales etc.

 

Since this is an Military government, who are not the smartest when it comes to economy, I do believe it will take much longer to recover. Further, many tourist will move to other destinations, where they are more welcome and not cheated with dual pricing on any corner.

 

Hey Thailand, wake up!!! Lower the Baht value, stop dual pricing, stop all these disgusting immigration regulation which are boyond sence and treat foreigner with more respect. Then they might come back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, newnative said:

Tourism wasn't 'down' pre-covid. 39 million visitors in 2019 vs. 38 million in 2018.

I just don't believe those figures, and I know Euro foreign tourists here only a small percentage of tourists but places like Pattaya and Phuket were well dead before Covid, and thats coming from hotel owners. We travel a bit and Chinese tourism in the North a huge percentage of the numbers. We were staying in 4 star hotels Chang Rai, Chang Mai, Phitsanalok for a fraction of the normal price and no guests. Went to Koh Chang at the start of high season just before Covid. Resort on the beach, breakfast included 1000 baht a night. lucky to be 10 guests at breakfast any one time, and this a 150 room hotel. The town itself was like a quiet Isaan town and everyone complaining. I am wondering what percentage of these figures are transients on  stop overs to elsewhere. I would say most. I am only going on my own perceptions and I am no economist, but I don't know how you could garner any real figures anyway. I have given up watching the news here. Talk about rubbery figures! You can read 3 different stories every day on for eg exports and growth....and they all seem to contradict themselves. This up 4%, this down 12% overall only down 2% this year but down 7% over all. Figures seemed to be moulded based on who's is presenting them and who is trying to polish the trd 

Edited by Tingtong2mut
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything should be re-opened immediately. June 1st, at the latest. Everything. All shops, all bars, every enterprise in the nation. This thing is under control, and the risk now, is not being able to ramp up the economy again, in any reasonable period of time, and having millions of people out of work, for extended periods of time. Let the people get back to work. The threat is over. The army needs to end their power trip, and consider the well being of the economy and the people. Open up every business. At least the ones who have not been crippled, and are able to re-open. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of businesses may never be able to re-open, after this insane experiment in economic shutdown is over. It is an experiment for the rich and for government workers on a full salary! Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb.

 

The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work. Not only here, but worldwide. What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat? Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay inane prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 100,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid. OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? 

 

And tourism is not returning to Thailand anytime soon. If you think about it, the group that comprised perhaps 60% of all arrivals (lower to middle income Chinese and Indians) are the ones who have been hardest hit by this idiotic worldwide economic shutdown. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work. Most countries will still be required to have Covid letters, as the virus is still raging in many countries. And some countries will not issue that letter (impossible to get in the US). Plus, will the mandatory health insurance still be required? Will the policies require a pandemic exception? Will it be even stricter than before? And just what are people returning to? Presently, Koh Samui looks like bombed out version of it's former self, with hundreds of businesses shuttered or gone forever. There are so many unanswered questions, it boggles the mind. One thing is for certain. Thailand will be feeling the effects of this for a very, very long time. So will the rest of the world. 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Tingtong2mut said:

I just don't believe those figures, and I know Euro foreign tourists here only a small percentage of tourists but places like Pattaya and Phuket were well dead before Covid, and thats coming from hotel owners. We travel a bit and Chinese tourism in the North a huge percentage of the numbers. We were staying in 4 star hotels Chang Rai, Chang Mai, Phitsanalok for a fraction of the norm

In 2019 6.7 million European tourists came to Thailand, not a small percentage. That is 16% of the total.

 

The third largest percentage overall, the largest is the Chinese with 27%.

 

However, the Chinese stay much shorter periods and spend a lot less  money per capita.

 

https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

ExpenditurePerTouristPerRegion(2019bis).png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dogfish180 said:

You must work for TAT ????

     Don't I wish.  Safe government job with likely a good pension by Thai standards.  But, seriously, whether you question how many 'arrivals' are tourists or those just passing through, if TAT has not changed its counting system from year to year, the number of 'arrivals' were not down in 2019 vs. 2018.  39 million for 2019, 38 million for 2018.  TAT did show dips in 2009 and 2014.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Since the Thai economy and global economies are suffering badly, but somehow the Thai currency is rising sharply. How did they do that?

Thai Foreign Currency Account 100%. Can pay all foreign debts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, EricTh said:

 

Everything is relative to each other.

 

The world is controlled by currency speculators and not by actual market, that's what I gathered.

 

 

Plus the fact Thai Foreign Currency Account (TFCA) is good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Yes, yes, yes and what would be a fairly priced exchange rate for the baht?

 

"overpriced" compared to what reference?

 

The baht was at 25 against the USD for a very long time, up until the 1997-1998 financial crisis.

 

Then the exchange rate shot up to double that, and since the mid 00s, it has constantly improved, as if it was trying to go back to its former value.

 

For my frame of reference, I use the 10-year average price of USD/Baht: 32.40.  So yes indeed, I would label the Baht today as overpriced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

That so called "sharp rise" is no such thing. USD/THB was 33 on 5 April, today, two months later, it's at 32!

Say what?  32?  Whatever you’re smoking, i’d like some.  31.83 at the moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.





×
×
  • Create New...