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The lockdown should be over now !


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8 hours ago, JohnBZ said:

I agree.  Government is being too cautious to open up in Thailand.  The country banned foreign entry till the end of June.  Inside Thailand , corona virus infection is almost down to zero.

 

The negative effects from restrictions are outweighing benefits by a big margin.

 

Open up fully, sooner the better

Isn't the the OP about the USA?

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13 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

In the US, the worst affected states had their liberal governors sending sick people into nursing homes which resulted in many deaths. Those same marxists 

Calling any US politician a marxist is an insult to Karl Marx. 

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it's not the death rate that should drive the easing of lockdown and other restrictions, it's the R number.

 

In an epidemic, one of the most important numbers is R - the reproduction number. If this is below one, then on average each infected person will infect fewer than one other person; the number of new infections will fall over time.

 

The lower the number, the faster the number of new infections will fall. When R is above one, the number of new infections is accelerating; the higher the number the faster the virus spreads through the population.

 

 

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5 hours ago, chessman said:

Would be very good news if correct.

 

100,000+ deaths at 0.26% would mean around 40,000,000 people in the US have or have had it. 1 out of every 8 people. That’s a lot.

 

but antibody testing has suggested a significantly lower number than this, the recent MLB testing in various cities where less than 1% were positive for example.

 

they also don’t say which data they are using to make this estimation and the only recent citation used is an Iranian article that is 2 months old and used Chinese figures. 

 

 


I think the antibody tests will turn out to be misleading as a lot of people will already have a level of immunity without generating specific antibodies. For example:

 

“ Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating “common cold” coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.”
 

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3

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This little graph shows the daily new cases in France after the partial lift of the lockdown, on May 11. I can only hope that is a statistical artefact and not a trend. 

If it was the latter, it would indicate that there would be a long while before we can get our freedom back.

Screen Shot 2020-05-31 at 09.14.13.png

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New estimate by CDC reduces COVID-19 death rate to just 0.26% (IFR) from WHO’s 3.4% (CFR)

 

So if the US has an actual death rate of 0.26% then we can finally declare Neil Ferguson's report which suggested 1% and 2,200,000 deaths in the US as....well totally wrong, US journal says:

 

https://techstartups.com/2020/05/24/coronavirus-fatality-rate-low-0-26-cdc-says/

 

 

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On 5/30/2020 at 8:04 AM, JohnBZ said:

I agree.  Government is being too cautious to open up in Thailand.  The country banned foreign entry till the end of June.  Inside Thailand , corona virus infection is almost down to zero.

 

The negative effects from restrictions are outweighing benefits by a big margin.

 

Open up fully, sooner the better

The infection rate in Thailand is a direct result of the government being too cautious.

 

hopefully we get to the end of June and they then sling on another month of border restrictions cause I certainly don't want to be infected.

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2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

"Some minor pain" such as losing their jobs by the millions, or having to wait in line to get some food?

 

But at least YOU were not infected and YOU didn't die, which is all that matters after all...

Governements and people in any power have to weigh one of the biggest problems that they face.  It is the same in busy it is called rick management.   A company finds a cure for a disease but in trial they find that 1 out of every 1000 develop cancer. that is treatable but will cost them money in lawsuits.

 

Is it financially feasible to release the drug with the impending lawysuit costs or should they shelve the drug.

 

Politicians run the same problem.

 

Do we take action to prevent the possibility of millions dying or do we do nothing and take the abuse because we did not do enough to prevent it.

 

Looking at Thailand we see the following.  Thailand closed it's border, it restricted people to their homes for a month. It then limited the travel in the country that people could do.  It rolled out it's return in a slow methodical method that allowed it to control any issues that come up.

 

Now let's look at NYC It did not close it's border with other states, it did not restrict the movement of people in and out of the city it did not fully mandate that people that had the virus were restricted from movement from med facilities designed to care for the disease. It want to just open up as if nothing has happened.

 

Where would you rather live for me we are living in the right atmosphere. Do I like it not a lot. Will I enjoy it when we get back to a more normal lifestyle again here .  YES But the one thing that we have to look at is the fact that we are al healthy enough to enjoy that lifestyle.

 

Whether you want to call it a strain of the flu or not the fact is that this kills many people.

 

Businesses that are going to be shut down unfortunately in some cases were already on the brink.  

Is this going to help pattaya personally I think it will as it is going to cull a lot of the businesses that were just hanging on. 

 

 

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The Covid death rate is 0.26% ? What does that mean ? Is that the worldwide overall population figure, or for the people who actually caught it, because I make it 0.00008% overall for Thailand which makes Covid safer than crossing the road ! So many daft numbers quoted in this scenario. 0.26% death rate equates to 21 million people, and this happy camper does NOT accept this figure ????

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3 hours ago, Don Mega said:

The infection rate in Thailand is a direct result of the government being too cautious.

 

hopefully we get to the end of June and they then sling on another month of border restrictions cause I certainly don't want to be infected.

"I certainly don't want to be infected".......

........And you won't wear a mask, I can't believe you wrote that................How strange ....????

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2 minutes ago, transam said:

"I certainly don't want to be infected".......

........And you won't wear a mask, I can't believe you wrote that................How strange ....????

Where did I say I won't wear a mask ?

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