Popular Post webfact Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 State of economy worse than initially estimated: BOT By THE NATION The economy will be highly unpredictable due to the global slowdown and the state of financial markets, Titanun Mallikamas, the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s assistant governor of the monetary policy committee, said on Wednesday (June 3). He added that the economy will contract more than initially estimated, and there are concerns that the baht will strengthen further and adversely affect economic recovery. Meanwhile, the country’s current account had run into a US$700-million deficit in April. If the account did not include gold, then it would have been imbalanced by $3.1 billion. This is the highest contraction in 20 years. In the next phase, the rising price of oil and limits on the arrival of foreign tourists will continue reducing the current account surplus. Titanun added that the current account should be closer to the balance point at least until the tourism sector recovers. The committee will publish an estimation of economic expansion, inflation rate and the current account in its next meeting on June 24. Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30389002 -- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-06-03 - Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you - Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteman Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) nz $ has strengthened over this week first time over 20 for some time Edited June 3, 2020 by whiteman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tribalfusion001 Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 Wow worse then expected, who would have thought that! 9 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Misterwhisper Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 So if 53 minutes ago, webfact said: the economy will contract more than initially estimated and 53 minutes ago, webfact said: the country’s current account had run into a US$700-million deficit in April and 54 minutes ago, webfact said: the rising price of oil and limits on the arrival of foreign tourists will continue reducing the current account surplus and 54 minutes ago, webfact said: he current account should be closer to the balance point at least until the tourism sector recovers then why would there be 55 minutes ago, webfact said: concerns that the baht will strengthen further ? Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? 37 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfHuy Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said: So if and and and then why would there be ? Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? No. Interest rate now at all time low at 0.5% 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cake Monster Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said: So if and and and then why would there be ? Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? Maybe its because of the FDI coming into the Country from the Mother land to the North. I think Thailand sees the start of a massive investment program into the Country from China, and want to a court that idea. Any investment by Chinese Companies into Thailand in order to skirt around Tariffs imposed by the US will soon be pinged, and a whole world of hurt will hit the Country 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Trillian Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said: So if and and and then why would there be ? Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? Inflation is falling, not soaring, it's a major issue for the bank, April CPI was -3%: https://think.ing.com/articles/thailand-steepest-price-fall-since-financial-crisis-reflects-huge-demand-drop/ The ever weakening USD is a concern when it comes to Baht strength, people have been dumping the Dollar which is causing it to weaken. The main reasons for that fall are the riots, and the high level of borrowings, as a result THB looks like a very sound and stable currency since government debt is below 42% of GDP. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post bert bloggs Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Trillian said: Inflation is falling, not soaring, it's a major issue for the bank, April CPI was -3%: https://think.ing.com/articles/thailand-steepest-price-fall-since-financial-crisis-reflects-huge-demand-drop/ The ever weakening USD is a concern when it comes to Baht strength, people have been dumping the Dollar which is causing it to weaken. The main reasons for that fall are the riots, and the high level of borrowings, as a result THB looks like a very sound and stable currency since government debt is below 42% of GDP. Dont know about inflation falling ,i notice that prices in the stores have been going up recently, rather than going down ,things like petrol have reduced ,but lets face it thats a short term thing ,soon it will be back where it was pre covid. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post CGW Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said: Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? Which country, at this time has a stronger economy than Thailand? most other countries are in far worse shape and have pledged billions to keep their populations from starving, Thailand has set up a few food kitchens, paid out very little money and pledged very little to sustain the people - at this time! They still have plenty money in the bank, for how much longer who knows, but other nations are getting into far more debt than Thailand is? - as I see it................???? 12 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Trillian Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, bert bloggs said: Dont know about inflation falling ,i notice that prices in the stores have been going up recently, rather than going down ,things like petrol have reduced ,but lets face it thats a short term thing ,soon it will be back where it was pre covid. The CPI represents a basket of goods, oil, gasoline, food and fruit all fell, transport costs fell by almost -10%....inevitably, some things in the basket will have increased in value. The important aspect here is that BOT targets inflation in a range of 1-3%, now that it's going negative they have to act, it's part of their core mandate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Airalee Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, Trillian said: people have been dumping the Dollar which is causing it to weaken. Different screen name but still the same old misinformation. Welcome back Saengd! https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3086782/rush-us-dollars-hong-kong-forces-money-changers https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-currency/argentine-peso-risk-rises-as-crises-spark-black-market-rush-for-dollars-idUSKBN22K1PT https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/lira-averse-banks-fuel-turkish-fears-of-another-dollar-rush https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-16/Will-the-pandemic-reaffirm-the-dollar-s-reserve-currency-dominance--QxlaRWr8oE/index.html https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/yuan-snaps-4-day-winning-streak-as-corporate-dollar-demand-kicks-in-2020-06-03 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Trillian Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Airalee said: Different screen name but still the same old misinformation. Welcome back Saengd! https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3086782/rush-us-dollars-hong-kong-forces-money-changers https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-currency/argentine-peso-risk-rises-as-crises-spark-black-market-rush-for-dollars-idUSKBN22K1PT https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/lira-averse-banks-fuel-turkish-fears-of-another-dollar-rush https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-16/Will-the-pandemic-reaffirm-the-dollar-s-reserve-currency-dominance--QxlaRWr8oE/index.html https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/yuan-snaps-4-day-winning-streak-as-corporate-dollar-demand-kicks-in-2020-06-03 I don't understand the first line of your post but it doesn't seem to be relevant to the subject, I'm sure if it is you will elaborate. The US dollar Index has fallen from over 100 to 97.3 in under two weeks, the value of USD is decreasing as a result. One of the reasons for that is investors are buying into gold as a safe haven, it's up substantially on the year: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/gold-prices-may-sell-off-after-exuberance-wanes-analysts-warn-2020-5-1029183763 EDIT TO ADD: "US Dollar Tumble Matches Worst Since 2007, Aussie and Yen Crosses Accelerate" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/06/03/US-Dollar-Tumble-Matches-Worst-Since-2007-Aussie-and-Yen-Crosses-Accelerate.html Edited June 3, 2020 by Trillian To add additional link/quote 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brunolem Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, CGW said: Which country, at this time has a stronger economy than Thailand? most other countries are in far worse shape and have pledged billions to keep their populations from starving, Thailand has set up a few food kitchens, paid out very little money and pledged very little to sustain the people - at this time! They still have plenty money in the bank, for how much longer who knows, but other nations are getting into far more debt than Thailand is? - as I see it................???? It will take some time for the countries to get a clear idea of their economic situation. Right now, they are like in the cloud of dust after a massive explosion, or rather implosion in this case. When the dust settles, maybe around September, reality will reveal itself in all its ugliness... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metisdead Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 Some off topic posts have been removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post steven100 Posted June 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 3, 2020 4 hours ago, webfact said: He added that the economy will contract more than initially estimated well i'll be a donkeys a_ss ..... of course it's worse than you expected because you are not out in the real world where everyday folks are broke .... pennyless 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trillian Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) Since the strength of USD plays a key role in the Thai economy and there seems to be some disagreement as to whether it is strong or weak and is being bought or sold presently: "with interest rates at zero, the federal deficit soaring and U.S. bond yields barely above the rest of the developed world, there’s not much incentive for investors to be parked in dollars. Washington’s dispute with Beijing won’t be helping, and neither will the civil unrest of recent days and the prospect of mass unemployment". The effect of that is: "The dollar’s weakness also reflects the relative strength of other currencies. Neither China nor Japan have conducted stimulus on anything like the same scale. A weaker dollar might be just what the global economy needs to sustain a proper recovery, as it prevents a skew of capital flooding into just one liquid currency". https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-03/the-mighty-u-s-dollar-is-having-a-wobble The US Dollar Index (the value of USD) is at its lowest point since March and Thai gold has risen 22% in the past 6 months, it's impossible to make the case that even though it's a safe haven currency that people are buying USD in anything like a meaningful way globally, they're not, they're selling USD and have been buying gold. https://goldprice.org/gold-price-thailand.html https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy BOT's concern must be that USD weakness will make THB even stronger, those are the financial markets and exchange rate developments they are concerned about. And of course the stronger the Baht, the greater the threat to exports, tourism and FDI, potentially, all of which undermine BOT's efforts to weaken the Baht. Edited June 3, 2020 by Trillian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trillian Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 As if by coincidence, a further article in the Thai press this morning but the link can't be posted. It reads to the effect of, FDI inflows to THB were seen last month as people shun USD, currency traders are invited to meet with BOT to disucss related Baht strength issues. So the path was, USD to THB to Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destiny1990 Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 No worries TAT will Stimulating local tourism to get back the momentum ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdong Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 12 hours ago, Brunolem said: It will take some time for the countries to get a clear idea of their economic situation. Right now, they are like in the cloud of dust after a massive explosion, or rather implosion in this case. When the dust settles, maybe around September, reality will reveal itself in all its ugliness... And it's going to get very ugly,there is a naff off depression in the post,and Thailand with its high baht,Reliance on touriam and exports is going to be badly hit,throw in the global civil unrest and you,'ve got the recipe for the perfect storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdong Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 14 hours ago, Misterwhisper said: So if and and and then why would there be ? Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? Kept artificially high by farang "sponsors" of their Thai " girlfriends" all joking aside don,t know the amount of for ex flooding it on a weekly basis but it must be considerable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricardofel Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 You think it's bad now???? Just wait when NO tourists arrive....then it will get worse! Thank god I left 7 years ago. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazykopite Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Will that mean the cancellation of 2nd hand Chinese submarines and 2nd hand armoured tanks from the Ukraine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapcanuck Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 15 hours ago, Misterwhisper said: So if and and and then why would there be ? Under all these above conditions PLUS the fact that millions of workers have lost their jobs while inflation soars, shouldn't the THB tank at least a little bit instead of strengthening? I just don't understand what is keeping it so high. It cannot be due to (foreign) investors parking their funds in the THB as a "safe haven currency" alone, can it? You forget that all other economies have tanked also. So no gains no lose. Add to that Thailand had far fewer infections and deaths from Covid19 compared to other countries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brunolem Posted June 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 4, 2020 1 hour ago, kingdong said: And it's going to get very ugly,there is a naff off depression in the post,and Thailand with its high baht,Reliance on touriam and exports is going to be badly hit,throw in the global civil unrest and you,'ve got the recipe for the perfect storm. Let's try and keep the civil unrest in the West if you don't mind... I am not convinced it is going to be that bad. The numbers will be very bad, like almost everywhere else, but the population is a different story. People here are not addicted to all kinds of social benefits provided by a nanny state, like in the West...they are used to hardship. I live in a village populated with poor families, in a rather poor Isaan province. Many among the young have lost their jobs and come back home to join their families, but there is no resentment and no complaining. When I go to the city, it is life as usual, save for the face masks...people are shopping at the market ou the supermarket...you wouldn't know that we are in the middle of an economic crisis. The cow market is actually booming, and prices are at their highest in a long time, with people ready to fork out 40,000 baht for a cow. There will be problems but, as usual, they will be concentrated in the cities, where people who have lost their jobs, and have no family upcountry, find themselves in a terrible situation, hence the lines seen in Pattaya and some other places to get some food. I have no idea of the size of this specific part of the population, and of its state of mind. Generally speaking, I think it will depend on how long the slump will last. If there is a "second wave" of the virus, worldwide, this will be disastrous, but if things starts to go back to normal in the fourth quarter, Thailand should be able to muddle through, as economists say. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alation Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 I dont know really, but I reckon the the rellows from the north will have a bit to do with it as far a providing money for info structure (fast train) you know things like that BELT AND ROAD that's what I'm thinking additional points to all bad news with that scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caspersfriend Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Maybe simply buy their calculators from somewhere other than PRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bander Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 This bad news will have a huge impact on the Thai stock market! Let's watch the SET index when it opens today, after this news I would guess a 5 to 10% fall if not more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jimbo2014 Posted June 4, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 4, 2020 This same headline gets reproduced each year from this point to end. Covid has just made it worse than the usual worse. I feel for the Thai people. No free election or recourse out of the bad decisions a military government will be prone to make. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bander Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 42 minutes ago, crazykopite said: Will that mean the cancellation of 2nd hand Chinese submarines and 2nd hand armoured tanks from the Ukraine. No cancellation, Thailand is surrounded by enemies, they are ready to attack if Prayut Chan-o-cha cancel submarines and tanks orders. And more importantly for Thais "to loose face". The new thai slogan: "We are the most powerful country in SEA" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trillian Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, bander said: This bad news will have a huge impact on the Thai stock market! Let's watch the SET index when it opens today, after this news I would guess a 5 to 10% fall if not more. Why would it, that inbound FDI is going into gold, bonds and the SET, the SET has benefited in recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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