It's proven.... lockdown does not work!

[Traubert]

9 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Correct it didn't happen, but what is happening is mass unemployment, civil unrest, mental health issues and people wanting this to end quickly.

 

I know these protests are about George Floyd, but something was going to happen anyway and this is the spark for it. I might even go and join them.

Hurray!!!

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Food for thought - All decisions now are not made for the benefit of the people and the future, but out of fear of criticism.

Also because certain politicians have had a taste of total power and may enjoy it too much to give it up easily, IMO.

[Bkk Brian]

Found this thread because of the headline: It's proven.... lockdown does not work!

 

Click bait nonsense

[Kinnock]

15 hours ago, chessman said:

Has published correspondence from a Swedish doctor and professor. 
 

if you want academic papers with research that shows the benefits of lockdown there are plenty.

..... and plenty saying the opposite.

 

But yes, the peer reviewed research papers published in The Lancet are excellent, but they also publish correspondence, which is one person's opinions.

 

I've been following The Lancet reports for years (since before they were on-line) because of my job, and I've not seen one that confirms or refutes the effectiveness of lockdowns - as it's still too early to know.

 

One theory is that Sweden is approaching their total fatality numbers, whereas strict lockdown countries still have to tally their second and third wave death as they progressively ease lockdowns, so we may need a penalty shoot-out as the decider.

 

A lockdown will of course slow the initial spread, and so ease pressure on the health services, which is they were intended to do, but they may be counter-productive if immunity is short lived, as seems to be the case, as in a slow spread people can lose their immunity and catch it again.

 

But the real issue with lockdowns is if they were worth the economic cost plus the negative impact on personal livelihoods - and I don't think any informed person could believe they were.

 

But there is a very interesting study reported in The Lancet today on distancing, masks and eye shields.

 

Summary: social distancing is highly effective, N95 masks are effective, other types of masks slightly less effective but still worthwhile, and two layer masks better than one layer.  Eye protection seemed to add some value, but case not clear. But this was in health care settings where measures were applied diligently, I don't they reviewed the effectiveness of masks work on the chin, or of people in tight-packed queues waiting to social distance in a shopping mall.

[ThLT]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Interestingly Professor Lockdown himself,
[...]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8379769/Professor-Lockdown-Neil-Ferguson-admits-greatest-respect-Sweden.html

The UK did a lockdown wayyy too late for it to have any desired positive effect (past the point where a lockdown actually works). They were initially aiming for herd immunity, then changed their mind. They're one of the countries with the highest deaths in the world, at 585 deaths/1M (and so is Sweden, at 450 deaths/1M).

 

If anything, the two countries indicate the dangers of zero lockdown measures.

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by ThLT

[ThLT]

If you exclude San Marino and Andorra (not representative, due to being tiny populations of 34,000 and 77,000), UK and Sweden are both in the top 5 countries with the most deaths per 1M citizens—2/5.
 

Edited June 4, 2020 by ThLT

[Phil McCaverty]

16 hours ago, CanadaSam said:

The Lancet, the foremost publication for Medicine, has published this article, which makes for an extremely interesting read:

It was written by a Swede (quelle surprise) and the Lancet did not endorse it, they just printed it.

 

Despite holding Sweden up as a model, it has a much higher infection rate and subsequent death rate than any of its immediate neighbours.

[vermin on arrival]

10 hours ago, ThLT said:

For sure. But the dead can't present their case. 

Lockdown was also implemented way too late, since UK was initially aiming for herd immunity. We'll never know for sure, but maybe there would have been 10,000, instead of 40,000 deaths (585/1M) if their lockdown would have been implemented correctly.

South Korea has 273 deaths total—5 deaths/1M citizens in comparison...

 

No lockdown in Korea. Just smarter policies and better compliance.

[ThLT]

15 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

No lockdown in Korea. Just smarter policies and better compliance.

Extremely effective pandemic measures and levels of compliance (probably difficult to replicable in any other countries other than South Korea and Japan), and lockdown measures.

Wasn't a 100% "lock-yourself-in-your-house" lockdown, but definitely not 0%.
 

Edited June 4, 2020 by ThLT

[sirineou]

Switzerland with no lock down: Population 8.5 million. Total confirmed  infected 30,893 . 1,660 deaths

Greece with swift lock down:     Population 10.7 Million  Total confirmed infected   2,937 ,   179  deaths

Enough said!! 

[DrTuner]

In the Finnish online news site Uusisuomi I today read that Anders Tegnell himself said on Sveriges Radio that they made a mistake, the number of deaths is too high and if they'd have the chance to do it again they'd select a line between their current and the rest of the world.

 

Sweden's experiment is backfiring. 

[chessman]

9 hours ago, impulse said:

The difference between Sweden and Norway may simply be that Swedish autopsies look harder for Covid.  Maybe they test 100% of their bodies while Norway only tests symptomatic deaths.  The truth is, I don't know.  But I'd trust the judgment of a guy with his name on 183 epidemiology research papers before I'd trust someone posting on TVF.

If you want to play the research papers game, how about the scientific committees of most developed countries in the world that endorsed Some kind of lockdown?  Am betting there are 100,000s of research papers with their names. How do you feel about their judgement?
 

your point about autopsies is almost certainly wrong. Both Norway and Sweden publish data about all-cause mortality. Norway is having less deaths than usual (was not a bad flu season + not many Covid deaths). Sweden’s has a huge Covid spike in Deaths in April. Many more people than usual are dying in Sweden but they are not in Norway.