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Kasikorn Research Centre adjusts 2020 growth forecast down to -6%

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Kasikorn Research Centre adjusts 2020 growth forecast down to -6%

 

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Thailand’s GDP for the whole of 2020 is forecast to contract by as much as 6%, instead of 5% as previously projected, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre (KRC).

 

Ms. Natthaporn Triratsirikul, assistant managing director of the KRC, said today that, although growth in the first quarter of the year was better than projected, economic performance for the remaining three quarters is forecast to contract by 6%, due to internal and external factors fueled by the global COVID-19 pandemic, violent protests in the United States and tension between China and the United States.

 

Findings from a random survey of about 1,000 people reflect the respondents’ uncertainty and the need to be more cautious about their saving and spending, resulting in a more severe contraction in household spending than originally forecast.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/kasikorn-research-centre-adjusts-2020-growth-forecast-down-to-6/

 

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What do the US protests have to do with Thai economy?

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If tourism is 20% of the Thai economy and we are half way through the year and tourism has evaporated with as yet, no date for it to restart....plus other business in no tourism areas have been in lock down like bars, restaurants, gyms, electronics and car factories etc....would you expect the impact to be a little bigger than -10%?

 

I am desperate to travel to Japan. There are flights. If I go I must go into quarantine for 14 days and then another 14 days when I come back to Thailand, if I can get in on my retirement '0' visa. I don't see flight regulations and borders to be opened up anytime soon. There are no prizes for opening it up if the virus, as it is predicted to, comes back.

 

Stuff like lockdowns, quarantines, closing borders and airports are relatively easy to do with a military style government.....but opening up again, how and when to relax the regulations issues under emergency decree takes much, much longer. How does one make the decision to allow 30,000 fans to pack into a football stadium or concert arena when if only one has the virus it can cause a new epidemic? What data and analysis do you need to say it is a safe bet? (And data and analysis are not strong points of Thai governments).

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