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Thai economy to shrink more than expected as job losses mount - c.bank minutes


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Thai economy to shrink more than expected as job losses mount - c.bank minutes

By Orathai Sriring

 

2020-06-04T022318Z_1_LYNXMPEG5306W_RTROPTP_3_THAILAND-ECONOMY-RATES.JPG

FILE PHOTO: The Bank of Thailand logo is seen in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

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BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy will contract more than expected this year and the jobs outlook to deteriorate sharply from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, minutes from the central bank's latest meeting showed on Thursday.

 

The Bank of Thailand's (BOT) policy committee voted 4-3 on May 20 to cut the one-day repurchase rate <THCBIR=ECI> by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%, with the three dissenters favouring no policy change.

 

The committee expressed concerns the baht <THB=TH> could strengthen and hurt economic recovery, adding the BOT would closely monitor market developments, according to the minutes.

 

"The committee would examine measures to lessen pressures from gold exports on the baht," the minutes said.

 

The central bank said on Monday it was ready to take steps to curb a rapid rise in the currency. It meets with exporters and foreign exchange traders on Thursday to discuss the baht.

 

In March, the BOT predicted the economy would shrink 5.3% this year, the biggest contraction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The central bank will next update its economic forecasts at its June 24 policy review.

 

The latest rate cut was the third this year to help support Southeast Asia's second-largest economy whose exports and tourism have been hit by the pandemic.

 

The minutes highlighted concerns about employment, which the committee said would deteriorate sharply and take a long time to return to normal.

 

"Some workers may be temporarily unemployed during the containment period. Others, however, could be permanently unemployed due to business insolvencies resulting in shutdowns, layoffs from weak demand, or greater use of automation," the minutes said.

 

The poor jobs outlook would delay the economic recovery and reduce the economy's long-term potential growth, causing "lasting economic scars after the crisis," the minutes said.

 

The state planning agency has said Thailand may lose up to 2 million jobs this year and 8.4 million are at risk of losing their jobs.

 

Click on minutes https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/ReportMPC/Minutes/MPC_Minutes_32020_scjl5c2r.pdf for the full document. 

 

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-04
 
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Will the Government take any notice..probably not as they know what,s best for the country ..... :whistling:

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Not quite as bad as forecast.

There are a lot more countries hurting more than Thailand ,,,,that is for sure,

which is one of the reasons that the Bht is still holding strong.

With more factories reopening every day they are slowly getting back on the road Jack

& exports starting to happen again.

Thailand could survive without tourism (I said survive) but there are so many influential people who  have vested interests in just the tourism structure alone that there will be pressure applied to allow International arrivals just as soon as possible.

 

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"The state planning agency has said Thailand may lose up to 2 million jobs this year and 8.4 million are at risk of losing their jobs."

 

I thought more than 2 million had already lost their jobs, different figures every day.

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18 minutes ago, Alex 012 said:

Tourism 11% of GDP my ass.  Try 40% plus easily

I have seen many articles and all seem to be around the 17%. Personally I thought would be higher than that.

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It makes no sense.  If things remain so dire—why does the Baht keep rising—now more than 2% above its 10-year average vs USD and others?

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