Jump to content

'Thai unemployment at nearly 10 per cent' due to Covid-19


webfact

Recommended Posts

Wave, what wave of WuFlu are we talking about. It’s a ghost wave that never existed in the first place. Military coups never work in the long run—generals don’t know squat about running an economy and this whole fantasy is about control. Take that to the bank.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Thailand was already reeling from a massive decline in the quality of tourism, and poverty rates are climbing under this tremendously untalented administration, which totally lacks concern for the masses. 

 

Mike, as much as I despise the current government I take issue with the idea that the peoples' woes are largely the fault of the current administration. I advise people who believe this to have a go at something more on-the-ground by running a business and finding responsible employees. You'll quickly realize that the predicament of "the masses" has its origins much closer to home.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

 

 

Between 2015 and 2018, the poverty rate in Thailand increased from 7.2 percent to 9.8 percent, and the absolute number of people living in poverty rose from 4.85 million to more than 6.7 million. The increase in poverty in 2018 was widespread - occurring in all regions and in 61 out of 77 provinces. In the Central and Northeast, the number of poor increased by over half a million in each region during the same period. The conflict-affected South became the region with the highest poverty rate for the first time in 2017.

 

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/03/03/thailands-poverty-on-the-rise-amid-slowing-economic-growth

 

One of the main reason for this sudden increase in poverty was the termination of the rice subsidies. 

 

It hit millions of small farmers very hard. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Genmai said:

 

Mike, as much as I despise the current government I take issue with the idea that the peoples' woes are largely the fault of the current administration. I advise people who believe this to have a go at something more on-the-ground by running a business and finding responsible employees. You'll quickly realize that the predicament of "the masses" has its origins much closer to home.

This is true. 

 

When I was managing a company in Bangkok during the previous decade, I spent a considerable amount of time recruiting... not to increase the staff, but to replace those who were leaving for trivial reasons (my uncle is sick, and the likes). 

 

All of them had university diplomas, but very little sense of responsibilities. 

 

It felt more like managing a classroom than an office. 

Edited by Brunolem
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well as the Thai Gov like to use figures lets put it out there. End of 2019 they said they had a unemployment rate of 0.7%. Now they report 9.6%. So keeping it to a level they can understand, since 2019 there has been a 1200% increase in unemployment.  Does this include Thai migrant workers in South Korea, Japan and other countries? That figure maybe without migrants that may not have jobs to return to. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In CM It appeared to me to be at 70% pre C-19, with one person in each family working to support the others. 

Now they've lost that job, I'd imagine the rate closer to 90% 

But of course these statistics (similar around the world) only count certain 'eligible' people. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

One of the main reason for this sudden increase in poverty was the termination of the rice subsidies. 

 

It hit millions of small farmers very hard. 

Rice is a horrendous crop that pretty much insures a life of poverty. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Advocatus Diaboli said:

Well as the Thai Gov like to use figures lets put it out there. End of 2019 they said they had a unemployment rate of 0.7%. Now they report 9.6%. So keeping it to a level they can understand, since 2019 there has been a 1200% increase in unemployment.  Does this include Thai migrant workers in South Korea, Japan and other countries? That figure maybe without migrants that may not have jobs to return to. 

Yes, the figure excludes Thai's who would normally be working overseas. But there are other aspects to the way the figures are calculated:

 

The workforce is about half of the population, circa 36 million.

 

The unemployment rate does NOT include those in transition between jobs, people who have quit one job and are ready to start new employment, this is presumed to be 4% of the workforce. So the true unemployed rate = unemployed + workers in transition, typically 5-6%.

 

Workers of all ages who have given up looking and remain at home but who may return to work at some point are excluded from the workforce, this amounts to as much as a further 5% of the workforce.

 

Even at this stage, a headline rate of 1% unemployed may translate into a real rate of around 11%.

 

The unemployed total does not include the underemployed, a further 10%

 

Even at this stage, a headline rate of 1% unemployed may transalte into a real rate of around 11%.

 

Essentially the way in which the unemployed is counted is unreliable and arriving at a more accurate figure requires other factros to be included:

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/BOX_MRP/BOXMPR_EN_March2019_01.pdf

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, GinBoy2 said:

Thing is there are two very distinct economies in Thailand.

 

One is the official one. Government workers, factories, basically the one who pay tax.

 

Then you have what I would argue is the larger one, the rural poor. They work an an ad hoc basis on the farms or whatever work they can find. They are nearly always 'semi employed' without any regular pay check.

 

So the unemployment numbers only really reflect that first category, the second are, and always have been excluded

If you see the BOT paper in the previous post you'll see that agricultural workers are included in the calculation but there are other factors that affect the totals which make them hugely unreliable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/5/2020 at 1:20 AM, Canuck1966 said:

Could all have been for nothing

Preventing more people from dying is nothing?

 

Good to know you won't be going to seek medical care if you get a heart attack, stroke or cancer?

 

Because many % of people don't die from heart attack, stroke or cancer.

 

But I suspect that you will not consider a heart attack, stroke or cancer "nothing" if YOU get it, right. ????

Edited by SiSePuede419
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/5/2020 at 3:40 PM, JusticeGB said:

Amazing the official statistics of the unemployment in Thailand showed an unemployment rate of only 1% in March 2020. Obviously something wrong somewhere!

Yes, a pandemic came along and then most of the country went in to lockdown.  Perhaps you heard about it?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have seen TAT numbers to be highly suspect even in the past,

I also have hardly trusted a lot of the official government numbers

for the same reason that to them 1 plus 2 equals 5 or more, and

my math,  does not agree with their math.  We all know that more than

10 to 20 percent of the workforce is out of work, unless the government,

military, and essential workers like police, fire, health workers

and such make up 80 to 90 percent of the work force of Thailand.

Geezer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

I have seen TAT numbers to be highly suspect even in the past,

I also have hardly trusted a lot of the official government numbers

for the same reason that to them 1 plus 2 equals 5 or more, and

my math,  does not agree with their math.  We all know that more than

10 to 20 percent of the workforce is out of work, unless the government,

military, and essential workers like police, fire, health workers

and such make up 80 to 90 percent of the work force of Thailand.

Geezer

Can I respectfully suggest that the reason you don't trust the numbers is because you haven't been able to cross check them or that you haven't fully understood the basis on which they are compiled? Another reason of course is because this is Thailand and distrust comes with the territory.

 

My experience is that most sets of government figures have at least one means of being cross referenced for accuracy and often times many more. For example, tourist arrivals numbers from TAT can be cross checked using passenger arrivals numbers from AOT and the independent airports. Unemployment statistics assume the reader knows that the 4-5% of people who are in the process of changing jobs aren't counted whereas in the West they are; Foreign Currency reserve uplifts each month can be checked against the budget surplus...and so on.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Almer said:

Confused i am, before the lockdown and curfew etc i see everyday many many people roaming around in Issans second biggest city with i assume no work and thats the one's outside goodness knows how many led at home, so 10% no way after this sorts itself.

Did i not read 20 million claimed for the government grant out of a total population of 70 million, many have not  realised they are already unemployed or there jobs are no longer there but are yet to find out.

Not everyone that claimed (and got the handout) worked to begin with, my Missus got the handout and she wouldn't work in an iron lung.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/5/2020 at 3:22 PM, steven100 said:

9.6 %  ......   :cheesy:       it's not April 1st .  

 

no way is it only nine percent, I would haze at a guess more like 30%.

 

Enlighten us illiterates how you "haze a guess". I want to try it as well. Do you need any ingredients?

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Trillian said:

Can I respectfully suggest that the reason you don't trust the numbers is because you haven't been able to cross check them or that you haven't fully understood the basis on which they are compiled? Another reason of course is because this is Thailand and distrust comes with the territory.

 

No, it doesn't. There's no reason for distrusting anything. They've "remade" themselves by inventing a brand spanking new slogan: Amazing Trusted Thailand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...