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The logic of masking

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Unless Thais are genetically different than all other races/nationalities, one of more infected people would access hospital care due to symptoms and then test positive for CV...

 

for 40 odd days, not one reported case....pretty much can deduct that the virus is not prevalent in this country at the moment...follow the evidence...

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11 hours ago, cardinalblue said:

Unless Thais are genetically different than all other races/nationalities, one of more infected people would access hospital care due to symptoms and then test positive for CV...

 

for 40 odd days, not one reported case....pretty much can deduct that the virus is not prevalent in this country at the moment...follow the evidence...

You are 100% correct.

But just wait for the nay-sayers that will argue

- that there are 30.000 covid-deaths in Thailand, successfully hidden by the thai government;

- that we can only be 100% sure that Thailand is covid-free, until every single person has been tested;

- that there can be illegal immigrants from neighboring countries spreading the Virus (irrespective of the fact that the figures of those neighboring countries are similar or lower than Thailand's);

- that medical personnel in Hospitals treating patients, wear masks - and what is good for the doctor must also be good for us;

- and various other nonsense like using the dreadful situation in USA as argument that we are in imminent danger in Thailand.

I did get my share of venom and personal attacks from the Scare-Mongering Crew on this and similar threads when questioning the need for mask-wearing in the present circumstances.  The sad thing is that they are immune to reason and logical arguments.

So now I do not go into any pointless discussions anymore, but only post an occasional sarcastic remark when the nonsense spouted is too blatant to ignore it.

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12 hours ago, cardinalblue said:

for 40 odd days, not one reported case....pretty much can deduct that the virus is not prevalent in this country at the moment...

not prevalent at the moment

 

so not virus free

 

but quite far from it if the best you can say is not prevelant

 

at the moment is an appropriate qualifier too

 

Thank you for your considered statement.  A refreshing change from the virus free gang.

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27 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

But just wait for the nay-sayers that will argue

- that there are 30.000 covid-deaths in Thailand, successfully hidden by the thai government;

 

I've no idea if the Thai govt is faking the numbers or not. I do know from the world tracking web sites there are over 12 million cases and 550,000 deaths so far this week so not masking up anywhere in the world is the height of irresponsibility. Most Thais where I stay get it and mask up.

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1 hour ago, Dante99 said:

not prevalent at the moment

 

so not virus free

 

but quite far from it if the best you can say is not prevelant

 

at the moment is an appropriate qualifier too

 

Thank you for your considered statement.  A refreshing change from the virus free gang.

Exactly.... You seem to get it 🙂

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7 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

Exactly.... You seem to get it 🙂

Are you referring to the virus? 😉

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2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

But just wait for the nay-sayers that will argue

- that we can only be 100% sure that Thailand is covid-free, until every single person has been tested;

Yes, we know your gut feeling has Thailand as covid-free. And, based on existing data, you've got a very high probabilty of being nearly right. But a high probability isn't the same as absolute certainty.

So, what might be the probability of being covid-free for Thailand? Why not look at the statistical modelling that NZ did on this subject (tho' mentioning statistics on this thread draws the confused button -- must be a liberal arts crowd...).

Anyway, if you have some penchant for statistics, you might be able to stumble thru the following:

https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/05/25/when-can-covid-19-be-declared-eliminated-from-nz-new-modelling-study/

So, based on the NZ model, is the probability 99% that Thailand is covid-free? And if so, why won't the Brits allow Thais into their country? Hmmmm.

But, the probability, whatever it is, is certainly high enough to walk the streets in CM without worry of getting infected; it might feel like 100% but the modelling says otherwise.

 

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43 minutes ago, JimGant said:

Yes, we know your gut feeling has Thailand as covid-free. And, based on existing data, you've got a very high probabilty of being nearly right. But a high probability isn't the same as absolute certainty.

So, what might be the probability of being covid-free for Thailand? Why not look at the statistical modelling that NZ did on this subject (tho' mentioning statistics on this thread draws the confused button -- must be a liberal arts crowd...).

Anyway, if you have some penchant for statistics, you might be able to stumble thru the following:

https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/05/25/when-can-covid-19-be-declared-eliminated-from-nz-new-modelling-study/

So, based on the NZ model, is the probability 99% that Thailand is covid-free? And if so, why won't the Brits allow Thais into their country? Hmmmm.

But, the probability, whatever it is, is certainly high enough to walk the streets in CM without worry of getting infected; it might feel like 100% but the modelling says otherwise.

 

Hi Jim,

I have been teaching courses in statistics in the context of quality management for years.

So am well aware that stating with 'absolute 100 % certainty' there is not one single case of covid in Thailand's 70 million population, is simply not possible.

And there is also no need for that impossible 100% certainty, because with no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days, for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

The reported figures of covid-cases and covid-deaths are so low, that even with serious under-reporting that practical conclusion 'covid-free' would still stand.

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2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

And there is also no need for that impossible 100% certainty, because with no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days, for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

Agree. As the NZ models show, going covid-free for 40 some days gives a near certain probability, which is good enough for the working man. I was just being ornery 'cause dingdong got dinged when he pointed out that you can't be 100% certain. Cheers.

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5 hours ago, JimGant said:

I was just being ornery 'cause dingdong got dinged when he pointed out that you can't be 100% certain. 

If you're referring to me, it's dingdongrb, the dingdong is for Peter.

 

Seems that now many more are agreeing, Thailand has not proven to be 100% virus free, thanks for confirming that.

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9 hours ago, dingdongrb said:

If you're referring to me, it's dingdongrb, the dingdong is for Peter.

 

Seems that now many more are agreeing, Thailand has not proven to be 100% virus free, thanks for confirming that.

As mentioned higher there is NO NEED for that impossible 100% virus free certainty.

With no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days (even if there would be considerable under-reporting a possibility which I do not deny), for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

Dingdong greetings from Peter.

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Posted (edited)

Even if Thailand is free of covid-19, which may very well be the case, the fact is that they plan on opening borders soon or at least eventually.

 

The people allowed into Thailand initially will be from countries that probably have some cases, but no major outbreaks. This means that there is an added risk of spread in Thailand when the borders open, and we can no longer assume it's 100% covid-19 free.

 

This in turn means that everyone will have to wear a mask again, do temperature checks at stores, and hand disinfection everywhere. I think that the government is reluctant to relax on these "measures" now, because they would have to revert back to them as soon as they open the borders. That is 100% certain.

 

They prefer to keep them in place so that people get "used to it", for now, instead of letting us bring down our guard and then have to revert back to them again in a month or two.

Edited by bkksteve123
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34 minutes ago, bkksteve123 said:

Even if Thailand is free of covid-19, which may very well be the case, the fact is that they plan on opening borders soon or at least eventually.

 

The people allowed into Thailand initially will be from countries that probably have some cases, but no major outbreaks. This means that there is an added risk of spread in Thailand when the borders open, and we can no longer assume it's 100% covid-19 free.

 

This in turn means that everyone will have to wear a mask again, do temperature checks at stores, and hand disinfection everywhere. I think that the government is reluctant to relax on these "measures" now, because they would have to revert back to them as soon as they open the borders. That is 100% certain.

 

They prefer to keep them in place so that people get "used to it", for now, instead of letting us bring down our guard and then have to revert back to them again in a month or two.

Thanks, and very fair point you are making there.

I just posted in another thread some additional thoughts on the present covid-situation and my conclusion that for all practical purposes Thailand is covid-free still stands.

But agree that your point re relaxing measures should take into consideration the intention to re-open borders to Western countries that are not yet covid-free. 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1171435-thailand-is-red-lighted-in-uk-for-quarantine-purposes-alongside-brazil-china-and-us-inexplicable-move/?do=findComment&comment=15600590

 

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4 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

With no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days (even if there would be considerable under-reporting a possibility which I do not deny), for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

 

Hmmmmmm...and here I thought you were a statistical fact chasing guru. Better lay off all those dingdongs or the white creamy sauce will make your belly fat.....  🙂

 

222.jpg.923787c87366b6da2dc312cf9c034650.jpg

111.jpg

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35 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

Hmmmmmm...and here I thought you were a statistical fact chasing guru.

 

222.jpg.923787c87366b6da2dc312cf9c034650.jpg

111.jpg

I wonder why you posted these figures.

Yes, 5 new - imported - cases > Regarding today’s COVID-19 situation in Thailand, five new COVID-19 cases were confirmed. Four confirmed cases were those who returned from the United Arab Emirates and the other confirmed case returned from Egypt and they were all under state quarantine

Source: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/news/news_no165_090763.pdf

So NO reported domestic cases in 45 consecutive days...

 

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