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Trujillo

The logic of masking

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5 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Why is it so hard to admit that Thailand is Covid-free 

That will never be true until 100% of the population is tested and the test provided is true test, not some bogus knockoff.

 

You're pretty much saying that all drivers are sober just because nobody failed a sobriety test at one of the checkpoints in BKK....  555

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19 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

 

We have been 41 full days without a local case of covid.

Please post some science regarding why you think this is so significant, like Thailand is virus free.

 

You previously suggested that 28 days was a magic number. Why not 23 or 29 or 329?

 

 

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5 hours ago, Trujillo said:

"That will never be true until 100% of the population is tested and the test provided is true test, not some bogus knockoff."

 

No, again, understand this: The virus has a "life cycle." It does not reside active in the body (infectious) forever. You become infected, you get sick (with or without symptoms) and eventually you get better (or you die). Having been infected with the virus does not mean you are infectious for months or years or forever.

 

We have been 41 full days without a local case of covid

I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free.

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26 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free.

So you suggest testing 100% of the population in order to reach a conclusion whether Thailand is covid-free?

Your Avatar-name and picture are already tell-tale of my opinion re that suggestion.

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1 hour ago, Peter Denis said:

So you suggest testing 100% of the population in order to reach a conclusion whether Thailand is covid-free?

Your Avatar-name and picture are already tell-tale of my opinion re that suggestion.

No I didn't say I advocate testing the entire population, did I? I was merely saying that in order to state that Thailand is 100% virus free it would require to test the entire population. So in other words it just plain idiotic to say there are no virus cases in Thailand. Now on the other hand it would be more correct to state there are currently no virus cases 'reported'. Hence the word, 'reported'.

 

So you are saying you like 'dingdongs'?  Hmmmmm, I thought as much with a name like Peter....  🙂

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Posted (edited)

If you are hung up on 28 days, it's the 14 day quarantine period times 2. The 14-days in which if you do not show any signs of illness, you most likely have outlasted the the virus. Yes, there are rare cases where the virus does not manifest until late in that stage, but the entire world's medical basis is on 14 days. I didn't make that up myself. So we are now three 14-day cycles away from our last infection.

 

As for, "I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free," you clearly don't understand. This is the last time I will try to make it clear for you. 

 

You either have the virus, which is "active" in your body (infectious), or you have never acquired the virus, or you had the virus and now you are either better (most likely) and NOT infectious or deceased. The "active" virus does not stay in your system for (as of this posting) 43 days. It is medically impossible. 

 

Covid-19 Thailand Government Daily Report

 

You seem to be confusing having had the virus (thus you would test positive for antibodies for the virus -- NOT that you have the virus in your body) and actually having the virus in your system. Unless as I posted above, one of the four unusual incidences were to take place, we can presume that there are no local people in Thailand currently infected in the general population. 

 

(Note: I have used "active" virus here to help explain to this fellow; actually, that is a redundancy. The only "virus" as such that is inactive would be what makes up a vaccine. If you have a virus, it's active by definition.)

Edited by Trujillo
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4 hours ago, Trujillo said:

If you are hung up on 28 days, it's the 14 day quarantine period times 2. The 14-days in which if you do not show any signs of illness, you most likely have outlasted the the virus. Yes, there are rare cases where the virus does not manifest until late in that stage, but the entire world's medical basis is on 14 days. I didn't make that up myself. So we are now three 14-day cycles away from our last infection.

 

As for, "I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free," you clearly don't understand. This is the last time I will try to make it clear for you. 

 

You either have the virus, which is "active" in your body (infectious), or you have never acquired the virus, or you had the virus and now you are either better (most likely) and NOT infectious or deceased. The "active" virus does not stay in your system for (as of this posting) 43 days. It is medically impossible. 

 

Covid-19 Thailand Government Daily Report

 

You seem to be confusing having had the virus (thus you would test positive for antibodies for the virus -- NOT that you have the virus in your body) and actually having the virus in your system. Unless as I posted above, one of the four unusual incidences were to take place, we can presume that there are no local people in Thailand currently infected in the general population. 

 

(Note: I have used "active" virus here to help explain to this fellow; actually, that is a redundancy. The only "virus" as such that is inactive would be what makes up a vaccine. If you have a virus, it's active by definition.)

So then you're confident that there has been no illegal border crossings occurring and someone hasn't carried the virus into the country unknowingly?

 

"The "active" virus does not stay in your system for (as of this posting) 43 days. It is medically impossible."

 

You know this, because you're a medical expert and you're experience is on COVID-19?  Hmmmmmm......  He77, the entire world's medical experts can't tell you whether a mask is helpful or not so it's difficult for me to believe anything these days, especially something posted on a Thai forum.....  🙂

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

.. it's difficult for me to believe anything these days, especially something posted on a Thai forum.....  🙂

But that doesn't seem to stop you posting your nonsense when reading well-argumented posts that challenge your opinions.

Edited by Peter Denis

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On 7/6/2020 at 3:25 PM, dingdongrb said:

No I didn't say I advocate testing the entire population, did I? I was merely saying that in order to state that Thailand is 100% virus free it would require to test the entire population. So in other words it just plain idiotic to say there are no virus cases in Thailand. Now on the other hand it would be more correct to state there are currently no virus cases 'reported'. Hence the word, 'reported'.

Bingo. This is just pure statistics, whereby absolute certainty requires sampling the entire population -- at a given time. However, following statistical sampling precepts can lead to a high probability of certainty; and the sample size here, plus its random nature, seems to allow this -- except for that bugaboo: false negatives (false positives apparently haven't shown up).

 

But, how to deal with the asymptomatic population that's never detected -- are they just passing on the infection to the next asymptomatic carrier, ad infinitum? Is this the herd immunity taking place, maybe? Or, are there no corvid 19 carriers in Chiang Mai, as this thread supposes...? Hmmmm.

 

I guess we'll just have to wait until the first local positive case shows up -- or not. Meanwhile, I'm thankful I'm in CM, not the States, and thus can walk around knowing I'm probably 98% safe from contracting corvid 19. I'll still wear the mask, at least when I see the Thais doing so -- thus not standing out as an ahole farang.

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32 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

But that doesn't seem to stop you posting your nonsense when reading well-argumented posts that challenge your opinions.

Not very well argumented, in my opinion. His arguments have seemed to be from the statistical side of matters, and it's nice to have scientific, not subjective, input on this subject.

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17 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

But that doesn't seem to stop you posting your nonsense when reading well-argumented posts that challenge your opinions.

Here, have another dingdong Peter.....

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As I sat  outside  7-11 in the car waiting for the Wife to get some milkI watched a  Thai  man sneeze  horrendously 3-4  times, each time he  took down his  mask as not to  get it dirty.

My point is mask wearing in Thailand is  plain almost useless, Thais have NO  idea  about how to put  on and remove a mask and that you should  not be touching them at all, this is  all about "appearing" to do something when the reality is virtually nothing is being done.

The Thais  mask are up and down constantly it makes it virtually useless.

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