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Fauci warns spread of COVID-19 'could get very bad', says no guarantee of vaccine

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6 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So it was all BS then. Unnecessary to lockdown states and keep them locked down, unnecessary to shame people for going to the beach or walking in the park etc as long as a mask is worn. 

I think masks help when inside or in large gatherings. I'm not a lockdown fan, I never thought they would work the same as in Wuhan. It's comes down to your own personal risk and being considerate to others. I didn't feel unsafe in Bangkok and I don't feel unsafe in the UK. Here in the UK I don't wear masks as I'm not in shops long enough and close to people for transmission. Public transport it's mandatory to wear a mask and I comply. I've met friends in their gardens for a beer and there was little risk. In a high infection area I maybe more cautious, but not much, I don't fall into any of the high risk catergories.

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9 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

I think masks help when inside or in large gatherings. I'm not a lockdown fan, I never thought they would work the same as in Wuhan. It's comes down to your own personal risk and being considerate to others. I didn't feel unsafe in Bangkok and I don't feel unsafe in the UK. Here in the UK I don't wear masks as I'm not in shops long enough and close to people for transmission. Public transport it's mandatory to wear a mask and I comply. I've met friends in their gardens for a beer and there was little risk. In a high infection area I maybe more cautious, but not much, I don't fall into any of the high risk catergories.

 

Ive worn my FFP3 masks, face shield and bathed in alcohol every time I left the house and have zero doubt that masks work, even in the beginning when it was being said by top scientists in the USA not to use them, but where my doubt falls off is the hand to face/eyes/nose transmission. 

 

Yeah masks are great but you'd logically think that if a virus is easily spreadable on surfaces all it would take would be one handrail, one door knob to spread the virus and in massive gatherings such as protests and riots, hand-to-face transmission has GOT to be a problem unless you wanna tell me that these protesters are carrying hand gel and are constantly washing their hands before they touch their face, which would be a hard sell. 

 

So if massive protests and gatherings in close proximity to others in the middle of a pandemic does not spread coronavirus, as stated by you and others (which is along partisan lines) then the lockdowns and shutdowns are unnecessary because clearly all you have to do is wear a mask.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

Ive worn my FFP3 masks, face shield and bathed in alcohol every time I left the house and have zero doubt that masks work, even in the beginning when it was being said by top scientists in the USA not to use them, but where my doubt falls off is the hand to face/eyes/nose transmission. 

 

Yeah masks are great but you'd logically think that if a virus is easily spreadable on surfaces all it would take would be one handrail, one door knob to spread the virus and in massive gatherings such as protests and riots, hand-to-face transmission has GOT to be a problem unless you wanna tell me that these protesters are carrying hand gel and are constantly washing their hands before they touch their face, which would be a hard sell. 

 

So if massive protests and gatherings in close proximity to others in the middle of a pandemic does not spread coronavirus, as stated by you and others (which is along partisan lines) then the lockdowns and shutdowns are unnecessary because clearly all you have to do is wear a mask.

Tbh I think it's quite hard to catch this virus from short term activities outside, most of the transmissions will come inside your home or work place. They say it's 15 minutes in close contact with someone who is infected and the reason certain workers catch the virus is due to longer exposure to infected people.

 

The people on the protests are generally moving most of the time and are constantly near different people for short bursts. The same applies in shops, you are moving around. The likelyhood of catching the virus from a surface is very low. There was 1000s on the beaches in the UK last week and 1000s of football fans celebrating, it will interesting to see if there is a spike next week after these events happened.

 

This was from a UK paper and it's a list of occupations that are the highest death rates in the UK, which should be the same for the USA. Hairdressers, barbers, care workers, nurses, retail assistants, security guards, factory workers, taxi drivers, chefs, bus/coach drivers, all inside jobs and generally lower paid jobs.

Edited by tribalfusion001
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14 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Just as there is no guarantee of a vaccine, neither is there any guarantee of herd immunity.  Of the seven known coronaviruses four are known to produce immunity from infection for no more than a few months.  Nothing is known about possible immunity from the other three.

 

So, I think there is less than a 50% chance that immunity results from infection for Covid-19.

There are over 200 strains of the ‘common cold’ most of them Rhinoviruses.

Other strains include parainfluenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and of course, coronaviruses which cause 10-30% of common cold cases (yadda yadda yadda, I’m not pretending I actually knew any of that !).

 

[From what I have read] It is understood that the exposure to Respiratory Viruses (which include) coronaviruses Alpha and Beta give a period of relative immunity, 1-3 years. 'Relative immunity' because people who have previously been exposed will have much less disease if re-infected later, not ‘full immunity’ (our information seems to differ regarding the length of immunity).

 

Not much is known about relative immunity for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV because the viruses swept through relatively quickly with high IFR and a relatively low number of cases, it was also less contagious than the various common cold strains and SARS-CoV-2. 

 

There is no way to know at the moment until those who have previously been infected are re-exposed to SARS-CoV-2 are immune, however, we can make assumptions (which is all I am doing, and doing so with a degree of recklessness only a layman can throw out there on such a subject, kind of like the Facebook experts !!!). 

 

So.... If pushed towards drawing an opinion, I would base it on the assumption that as immunity of 1-3 years exists for the majority of existing respiratory viruses, immunity may also exist for SARS-CoV-2 and thus herd immunity may exist, but only if we evolve along with the antigenic drift of the virus.

 

This leads me onto a BUT !!!!

 

IF we are relying on a vaccine which will be distributed to billions, how effective is this vaccine on a virus which has evolved?

 

The flu vaccine is effective because we can predict its antigenic drift. 

 

Are the developed vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 predicting its evolution. First they have to be successful in finding a vaccine against current strains, and then work out how the virus ‘drifts’....

 

Food for thought.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Tbh I think it's quite hard to catch this virus from short term activities outside, most of the transmissions will come inside your home or work place. They say it's 15 minutes in close contact with someone who is infected and the reason certain workers catch the virus is due to longer exposure to infected people.

 

The people on the protests are generally moving most of the time and are constantly near different people for short bursts. The same applies in shops, you are moving around. The likelyhood of catching the virus from a surface is very low. There was 1000s on the beaches in the UK last week and 1000s of football fans celebrating, it will interesting to see if there is a spike next week after these events happened.

 

This was from a UK paper and it's a list of occupations that are the highest death rates in the UK, which should be the same for the USA. Hairdressers, barbers, care workers, nurses, retail assistants, security guards, factory workers, taxi drivers, chefs, bus/coach drivers, all inside jobs and generally lower paid jobs.

 

So massive protests in close proximity in the middle of a pandemic is OK, as long as you wear a mask, but working and basic daily activities needed for personal and economic survival = spreading coronavirus  - better lock it down. 

 

This is the problem people have, especially after local governors made it political by extending lockdowns and arresting people for trying to work and being at the beach, filling outdoor skateparks with sand and on and on but as soon as the protests started they themselves are out in the middle of it and all of a sudden massive gatherings are A-Ok

 

And I find it very hard to believe that being around thousands of people in an unhygienic manner is safer than working in a factory following COVID guidelines. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Mama Noodle said:

 

So massive protests in close proximity in the middle of a pandemic is OK, as long as you wear a mask, but working and basic daily activities needed for personal and economic survival = spreading coronavirus  - better lock it down. 

 

This is the problem people have, especially after local governors made it political by extending lockdowns and arresting people for trying to work and being at the beach, filling outdoor skateparks with sand and on and on but as soon as the protests started they themselves are out in the middle of it and all of a sudden massive gatherings are A-Ok

 

And I find it very hard to believe that being around thousands of people in an unhygienic manner is safer than working in a factory following COVID guidelines. 

You'll probably find the spikes are in places that are not adhering to the guidelines, I'm sure they are factories in the USA using illegal or cheap labour. The spike in Leicester UK could well be in factories that are not having PPE for staff and poorly ventilated places too. South Asians living in multiple occupancy houses, sometimes 10+ in one 3 bed house.

 

There doesn't seem to be any spikes so far in places in the UK which have had large gatherings either protests or street parties. I think more evidence is needed where these cases are coming from.

Edited by tribalfusion001
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Some troll posts using trolling videos using Thai language has been removed as this is an English language site.

 

A post using profane language and the replies have been removed. 

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Posted (edited)

Please. Thailand needs to ban anyone from the US from coming here.

 

Edited by bkk6060
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2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If a vaccine is discovered, how effective may it be anyway? (flu is just 40-60% effective). 

The flu vaccine, is at minimum 40% ineffective
there is no sure way to measure its effectiveness
(even though people like to compare past numbers etc.)
The vaccine can only be measured by its ineffectiveness
as there is no way of knowing for sure
someone that received the vaccine would have got the flu (or not)
but 
when someone that has been vaccinated, gets the flu
it can be recorded unequivocally that the vaccine was ineffective

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4 minutes ago, innosiem said:
2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

If a vaccine is discovered, how effective may it be anyway? (flu is just 40-60% effective). 

The flu vaccine, is at minimum 40% ineffective
there is no sure way to measure its effectiveness
(even though people like to compare past numbers etc.)
The vaccine can only be measured by its ineffectiveness
as there is no way of knowing for sure
someone that received the vaccine would have got the flu (or not)
but 
when someone that has been vaccinated, gets the flu
it can be recorded unequivocally that the vaccine was ineffective

I see your logic - and yes, at minimum the vaccine makes no difference for 40% of people. 

 

The vaccine itself doesn’t protect people from catching the flu, it just minimises the symptoms in 40-60% of people (according to reports). 

 

 

 

 

 

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