I Predict A Riot.

[Brewster67]

Why do I get the feeling Thai immigration are going to create mayhem if this amnesty actually expires on July 31st?

 

Probably because it will be safe to assume that the authorities will almost certainly do it the wrong way before they do it the right way., they have plenty of form for this. But this will be of little consolation to what must be tens (if not hundreds} of thousands of people about to find their passports no longer have a valid visa in them.

 

If they re-open the land borders and resume business as usual (which I highly doubt), then I believe this will be officially announced literally days from the date you have to go. 

 

Now the last time I went to Vientiane, there were around 250 applicants and the embassy staff were stretched to breaking point, so god only knows what it is going to be like with thousands descending on the place all at the same time, and this will not only happen at the embassy, but also at all the border points.

 

Let's face it. when the axe falls you are not going to be going through this with a regular day's worth of applicants, you are going to be among four month's worth of applicants all hitting the same places at the same time.

 

It won't just be land borders either... Those flying will find it very difficult to even get booked on a flight. The flight prices will be pushed right up and the airlines won't even be able to put enough flights on because they like us will be given very little notice by thai immigration for the great exodus.

 

Good luck... In the words of the Kaiser Chiefs... 'I predict a riot'.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Brewster67

[Don Mega]

I can see a few delays but hardly a riot.

[Brewster67]

1 minute ago, Don Mega said:

I can see a few delays but hardly a riot.

A few delays?

 

I was being generous when I said 4 month;s of applicants, in reality you can add all those who got their last visas issued up to 60 days before the amnesty was announced... So that will be 6 months of applicants all going on the same day, and that to you will equate to 'a few delays'?.... no way man.

 

It is simple mathematics.

 

If Viantiene can barely deal with a few hundred in a day, then how much further can they be stretched?

[ubonjoe]

I think an announcement coming soon since they extended the emergency decree, inbound flights are not allowed without advance clearance that limits the outbound flights available and no indication of border crossings opening anytime soon.

I am certain the amnesty will be extended for at least a month.

[cooked]

I was lucky enough to get my extension done just before things got so Kafkaesque and got my 90 days done yesterday, very efficiently, only a few Cambodians present. (Buriram).

I agree that things will be 'disorganised' on and after 31 July. 

[Brewster67]

8 minutes ago, ubonjoe said:

I think an announcement coming soon since they extended the emergency decree, inbound flights are not allowed without advance clearance that limits the outbound flights available and no indication of border crossings opening anytime soon.

I am certain the amnesty will be extended for at least a month.

I also think it will be extended, but the reality is that the problem in the original post is only going to be inflated.

 

Basically it is kicking the can down the road, but the problem is going to get bigger and bigger the more they kick it.

 

It is going to be interesting how they plan to deal with the numbers. pre-covid the system was evenly spread out and now the numbers are going to lumped together.

 

Imagine all the 60 day visas that get applied for will also start expiring at the same time pushing the same problem onto immigration offices.

[UncleMhee]

32 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

If Viantiene can barely deal with a few hundred in a day, then how much further can they be stretched?

Bear in mind, prior to this amnesty an appointment was mandatory in Vientiane; I think two weeks prior to your required date . So anyone who's looking to just front up to suit themselves is in la la land imo. If a riot occurs, it won't be a problem in Thailand or neighboring countries.......all have armed forces they use to quell dissent.......

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by UncleMhee

[Puchaiyank]

Chaos...unavoidable!  

[thaibeachlovers]

Best solved by biting the bullet and accept that things will be <deleted> and plan accordingly. If have to go out of LOS perhaps go home instead of Vientiane. If don't have to leave, use an agent.

[mtls2005]

The Thai military seems more than capable of putting down a riot. I wouldn't go there.

 

Maybe...

 

identify the foreigners on tourist visas by country and work with their embassies to encourage departure.

 

create a "virtual" border zone within Immigration offices where people can exit and enter the country, virutally.

 

extend amnesty until 30 Aug 2020 (or 30 Sep 2020), but clearly say this is a hard stop, and if you con't leave you will be subject to arrest and deportation.

 

start rounding up all foreigners (not just the brown ones) NOW who are NOT on amnesty, by arresting them and deporting them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OneeyedJohn]

They will surely allow a period of grace after the amnesty stops, as in the 90 day report and visa extension, you have a period before and after when you can apply. 

 

So something like a 30 day period after amnesty would make sense.

 

Immigration could convert their working hours as per 7-11, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.  Spread the load kinda.

[Somtamnication]

I have given up on predicting what immigration will or will not do.

 

I can, however, predict stronger hemorrhoids as I am eating more Mama Noodles to save money and it hurts!

[Caldera]

I don't see a riot coming. But it would be interesting to know some numbers: How many foreigners were on amnesty when it kicked in? How many of these left the country or were able to get a proper extension in-country in the meantime? How many remain on amnesty?

 

My feeling is that many have left or are about to leave already.

 

[david555]

1 hour ago, Brewster67 said:

A few delays?

 

I was being generous when I said 4 month;s of applicants, in reality you can add all those who got their last visas issued up to 60 days before the amnesty was announced... So that will be 6 months of applicants all going on the same day, and that to you will equate to 'a few delays'?.... no way man.

 

It is simple mathematics.

 

If Viantiene can barely deal with a few hundred in a day, then how much further can they be stretched?

Concerning your remark flights out :

"Those flying will find it very difficult to even get booked on a flight. The flight prices will be pushed right up and the airlines won't even be able to put enough flights on because they like us will be given very little notice by Thai immigration for the great exodus. "

 

 

 

There are flights out available , but not with the  remaining return ticket ,must buy single flights ticket , flights out regular at 3 a week by example KLM  (others I have no example from , but are available  ) Those who are expected to leave and don't do it , expect problems the moment amnesty ends whenever.....don't think immigration is not aware flights are available now and further  .

Amnesty is not planned to make life more comfortable … but just solving a crisis moment !

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by david555

[mtls2005]

11 minutes ago, Caldera said:

I don't see a riot coming. But it would be interesting to know some numbers: How many foreigners were on amnesty when it kicked in? How many of these left the country or were able to get a proper extension in-country in the meantime? How many remain on amnesty?

 

My feeling is that many have left or are about to leave already.

 

 

 

Imagine these numbers are known, but probably not available to us.

 

As one sample, following the Australian Ambassador to Thailand on Twitter, @AusAmbBKK, 860 Australians have left (as of June 18 tweet), while previously he mentioned (months ago) they had a record of ~ 4,000. Those 4,000 may have been the total, or some total, or just those who 'registered'?

 

 

Maybe I'd add another consideration to my list...

 

incentivize people to leave ASAP, with a free, future 90-day visa and a 5,000 baht voucher.

 

 

 

 

[ubonjoe]

49 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

It is going to be interesting how they plan to deal with the numbers. pre-covid the system was evenly spread out and now the numbers are going to lumped together.

I think the numbers are already lower than they were in April when the amnesty first started. A lot of people have been able to get flights home and some from neighboring countries have been able to cross the borders.

Also some have been able to get long stay extensions since then.

When the border crossing start opening with amnesty still in effect there will not be that big rush at the nearby embassies and consulates.

I think there will some agreements done between Thailand and neighboring countries will be done to allow people to use the border crossings.

[ChakaKhan]

Will be like a chinese tour group seeing a free shrimp buffet!     jk.....maybe

[darrendsd]

As no one know what is going to happen yet this is just another unhelpful useless post

[BritManToo]

43 minutes ago, Caldera said:

I don't see a riot coming. But it would be interesting to know some numbers: How many foreigners were on amnesty when it kicked in? How many of these left the country or were able to get a proper extension in-country in the meantime? How many remain on amnesty?

Hundreds of thousands of Burmese/Cambodian/Malay labourers ...... maybe millions.

We are an insignificant drop by comparison.

[at15]

i can see it now, asean countries can do a border run. westerners , flight back to your home country only. 

[Brewster67]

1 hour ago, UncleMhee said:

Bear in mind, prior to this amnesty an appointment was mandatory in Vientiane; I think two weeks prior to your required date . So anyone who's looking to just front up to suit themselves is in la la land imo. If a riot occurs, it won't be a problem in Thailand or neighboring countries.......all have armed forces they use to quell dissent.......

 

You do understand that 'I predict a riot' is metaphorical don't you?

 

I wondered how long it would be before someone took it as literal, and I didn't have to wait that long... Lol

[Mike Teavee]

1 hour ago, Brewster67 said:

I also think it will be extended, but the reality is that the problem in the original post is only going to be inflated.

 

Basically it is kicking the can down the road, but the problem is going to get bigger and bigger the more they kick it.

 

It is going to be interesting how they plan to deal with the numbers. pre-covid the system was evenly spread out and now the numbers are going to lumped together.

 

Imagine all the 60 day visas that get applied for will also start expiring at the same time pushing the same problem onto immigration offices.

They could significantly reduce the number of people visiting Immigration by simply saying there will be no extensions for any Visa Exempt or Tourist Visas issued before the Amnesty started on the basis that these have already been extended by 4-5 months.

 

This would leave the yearly visas which should have been extended as normal so no increase volumes there, & 90 day reports (which they could stagger by saying report on your normal reporting date having skipped 1) 

 

Don't see what the problem is? If anything there could be less people there than normal. 

 

As for flights out, there has been virtually zero arrivals for months so the usual demand of people going home from their 2 week holidays isn't there, add in the flights bringing in the relatively few people who can return (majority of whom live in Thailand) which can take anybody out & there are few reasons for waiting until 31st July to leave. 

 

Edit: The one group of people I can maybe see being impacted by increased volumes are the guys who go out every 3 months for a 90 Day Non-Os, it would be good if these could get an extra 1 month extension to "Smooth out the bump", though it could be argued that did have the option to extend their current stay for 12 months like the rest of us on a Non-O.

   

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Mike Teavee

[Brewster67]

9 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said:

They could significantly reduce the number of people visiting Immigration by simply saying there will be no extensions for any Visa Exempt or Tourist Visas issued before the Amnesty started on the basis that these have already been extended by 4-5 months.

 

This would leave the yearly visas which should have been extended as normal so no increase volumes there, & 90 day reports (which they could stagger by saying report on your normal reporting date having skipped 1) 

 

Don't see what the problem is? If anything there could be less people there than normal. 

 

You don't see the problem because you misinterpreted my point.

 

Once the borders reopen for business there is going to be a mad rush... THAT is not being disputed by anyone... It is THOSE visas that will be issued in the great rush that will all start expiring at the same time for example 60 days after the reopening, many of those will likely want to go to their local immigration office to extend those visas...... basically this amnesty has created bottlenecks in the entire system.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Brewster67

[lemonjelly]

When the land borders open, what entry requirements will the neighboring countries require? I’ll need to do a border bounce at some time in the future, trying to work it all out is giving my derrière  a headache 

Edited July 2, 2020 by lemonjelly

[Keyser Soze666]

1 hour ago, UncleMhee said:

If a riot occurs, it won't be a problem in Thailand or neighboring countries.......all have armed forces they use to quell dissent.......

 

Dear Lord, you actually thought the OP is predicting an actual riot...the mind just boggles..

[Mike Teavee]

4 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

You don't see the problem because you misinterpreted my point.

 

Once the borders reopen for business there is going to be a mad rush... THAT is not being disputed by anyone... It is THOSE visas that will be issued in the great rush that will all start expiring at the same time for example 60 days after the reopening, many of those will likely want to go to their local immigration office to extend those visas...... basically this amnesty has created bottlenecks in the entire system.

At the moment the Overseas Thai Embassy & Consulates are not issuing Tourist Visas & there are no indications that they're about to anytime soon, so when the borders open the vast majority of people will probably be going home or to a 3rd Country.

  

Even if they were to issue them, the Embassy/Consulate will only issue the number of Visas that they can so to use your example of 250 per day in Vientiane (for which you need an appointment in advance), if 1,000 people head there then some of them are going to be there for 4 days, come back 4 days later & extend their Visa 4 days after the guys who got theirs on day 1....

 

I honestly don't think there will be a problem & think if anything there will be a larger than average number of people leaving Thailand for good & a lot fewer people getting Tourist Visas or travelling at all for some months after the borders reopen. 

 

Again, the only group that might have a problem are the ones who go out every 90 days to get a new Non-O and I'd updated my reply above to cover this. 

[Brewster67]

10 minutes ago, lemonjelly said:

When the land borders open, what entry requirements will the neighboring countries require? I’ll need to do a border bounce at some time in the future, trying to work it all out is giving my derrière  a headache 

To be more precise, what surrounding countries are going to require isolation before you can fully enter their country and do things?

 

Worst case scenario is they say you will not be allowed to use the exit point until you have quarantined and then when you eventually get back you have to do another 14 days.

 

I have a feeling when things reopen, they will do it to suit their rules regardless of the massive inconvenience to those affected.

[bkk6060]

Anyone who is actually here and has 90 day or extensions due I believe should go in and take care of business.

I am doing this the offices are light, but I know several who are not going using this time as an excuse to do nothing.  But, they seem fine now going to a bar.

Using Ï am afraid to go due to Covid¨ really is a fake excuse now because their are no reported cases for over a month and it is not going to be better in August or September. 

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by bkk6060

[RaduAlex]

I was worried about a fall from the cliff until last weekend, but not anymore. They extended the emergency degree until end of July. The number of foreign workers from neighboring countries stuck in Thailand is in the 100,000s. There has been zero preparation for extraditing foreigners on overstay following July 31st. There is no plan for a reopening of land borders. So it really isn't a question IF they are going to extend the amnesty, but by how long. If several 10,000s of people are affected, it is much more likely that they'll keep the situation hanging in the air rather than play hardball.

[Brewster67]

13 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said:

At the moment the Overseas Thai Embassy & Consulates are not issuing Tourist Visas & there are no indications that they're about to anytime soon, so when the borders open the vast majority of people will probably be going home or to a 3rd Country.

  

Even if they were to issue them, the Embassy/Consulate will only issue the number of Visas that they can so to use your example of 250 per day in Vientiane (for which you need an appointment in advance), if 1,000 people head there then some of them are going to be there for 4 days, come back 4 days later & extend their Visa 4 days after the guys who got theirs on day 1....

 

I honestly don't think there will be a problem & think if anything there will be a larger than average number of people leaving Thailand for good & a lot fewer people getting Tourist Visas or travelling at all for some months after the borders reopen. 

 

Again, the only group that might have a problem are the ones who go out every 90 days to get a new Non-O and I'd updated my reply above to cover this. 

If Vientiane processes 250 in a single day, and their services have been on hold for almost 4 months, that means they will have a backlog waaaaaaaay bigger than 1000...

 

My local farang facebook group is alight with many people who use this service because they are not on 12 extensions or retirement visas. I would say the majority of farang that I know are in this situation.

 

I also think the vast majority of farang will NOT be flying home to their home countries because they live in thailand, and if there is still a 14 isolation requirement in place, then that will compound that even more.

 

hardly any farang left the country before this, I know at least half a dozen who cancelled their home country visits when covid hit because they didn't want to end up stranded there when their lives are here.

 

Surrounding country borders are going to be the first to open, long before they will accept people from the highly infected west.