I Predict A Riot.

[Caldera]

Considering that almost 3 million Thais who used to work in the tourist industry are now out of work (according to a news item today), allowing Thai embassies in safe and nearby countries to issue tourist visas again would actually be a smart move once the land borders open.

 

At some point, Thailand will need to shift its focus on its economic recovery. Otherwise there will be riot potential in other quarters.

 

[david555]

10 minutes ago, Caldera said:

Considering that almost 3 million Thais who used to work in the tourist industry are now out of work (according to a news item today), allowing Thai embassies in safe and nearby countries to issue tourist visas again would actually be a smart move once the land borders open.

 

At some point, Thailand will need to shift its focus on its economic recovery. Otherwise there will be riot potential in other quarters.

 

As they hurt the " North East " most by the present status ….

[BigStar]

A prediction on TVF is always an excellent reverse indicator.

 

What this means is that there definitely will not be a riot.

[Mike Teavee]

2 hours ago, Brewster67 said:

If Vientiane processes 250 in a single day, and their services have been on hold for almost 4 months, that means they will have a backlog waaaaaaaay bigger than 1000...

 

My local farang facebook group is alight with many people who use this service because they are not on 12 extensions or retirement visas. I would say the majority of farang that I know are in this situation.

 

I also think the vast majority of farang will NOT be flying home to their home countries because they live in thailand, and if there is still a 14 isolation requirement in place, then that will compound that even more.

 

hardly any farang left the country before this, I know at least half a dozen who cancelled their home country visits when covid hit because they didn't want to end up stranded there when their lives are here.

 

Surrounding country borders are going to be the first to open, long before they will accept people from the highly infected west.

 

There may be a backlog of demand for Visas from VTE, but if they had 1/2 a brain cell about them they would have stopped taking bookings once the lock down started so they will not have a backlog, but even if they have they will only process X number of Visas a day, at the moment that is 250, so if there's a backlog of 10,000 the guys at the back of the queue will get theirs 40 days after the guys at the front & so extend/get a new one 40 days later.

 

I would be willing to bet that the vast majority of Farangs living in Thailand extend their permissions to stay rather than going out every 90 days for a new Visa (in fact, I'd take a punt that more go down the Agent route than do it), but I was referring more to people staying 6-9 months of the year on tourist visas who will have no choice but to stay out of Thailand until their allowed back in (Even an Elite Visa won't help them unless they get it before they have to leave).

 

I also think that there will be far fewer "Genuine" Tourists getting tourist Visas or extending these which will also help flatten out the bump (and would be good news for guys going to VTE to get a 90 Day Non-O)

 

 

 

I am one of those guys who have had their visit to their home country cancelled on them & I won't be rescheduling it until re-entry restrictions change as 1) It's pointless me going back to the UK for 2 weeks to spend it in quarantine & 2) I have no idea whether I will be able to get the CV19 test as typically they'll only test people who are showing symptoms, I might be able to get it from a private clinic in London but we're probably talking £4-500 + the same again to travel/spend a night there. 

 

Edit: Re your last point, so far restrictions like these have been done based on the Country of the Passport not where you're coming from so you're equally as likely to be denied entry coming from a local country as you are your own if your passport is not welcome at this time. 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Mike Teavee

[ttkeric]

I predict crowds mostly consisting of late, last minute stragglers who had until the 31st of July to catch a flight back home or get their extensions done prior to the deadline. 

[ubonjoe]

1 hour ago, Mike Teavee said:

There may be a backlog of demand for Visas from VTE, but if they had 1/2 a brain cell about them they would have stopped taking bookings

They did stop them on March 24th.

 

The appointments page says this.

[racket]

I’m sure they’ll extend it by at least a month. But they better announce this mid July so that people can plan ahead and book their flight tickets as soon as possible. 

[moe666]

The people who have stayed and many have made no effort to return to their own country. They will expect some special treatment because several months free ride isn't good enough.

[moe666]

5 hours ago, david555 said:

As they hurt the " North East " most by the present status ….

So all the hotels closed up in Chiang Mai only hurts the Northeast

[david555]

1 minute ago, moe666 said:

So all the hotels closed up in Chiang Mai only hurts the Northeast

So touchy ….?... ,as I said most..... most does not mean ALL or ONLY .....of course are they also hurt , but the ones I name are the most low and vulnerable …. sure not all Chang Mai are  owners big hotels ….so yes  they also are in problem

[jimmjam]

You have to make an appointment at vientiane anyway, so they only accept a certain amount of people.

Anyway, with no borders going to be open by then and flights not back to normality.

You can just wait in LOS until we get an extension for another 12 months.????????

[JackThompson]

4 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

Edit: Re your last point, so far restrictions like these have been done based on the Country of the Passport not where you're coming from so you're equally as likely to be denied entry coming from a local country as you are your own if your passport is not welcome at this time. 

That would make no sense in this situation.  It's precisely "where you have been" that would dictate the probability of infection.  Even then, this method is just "odds." 

 

Only a test could answer the pertinent question with any degree of certainty, but seems they don't trust those - figuring someone coming in has "just got it" so will test-negative, then infect the whole country - assuming that didn't already happen in Feb, when they didn't call pneumonia covid.

 

1 hour ago, moe666 said:

The people who have stayed and many have made no effort to return to their own country. They will expect some special treatment because several months free ride isn't good enough.

Why would we go to "our own" country?  It's not like we have "home-lands," any more - just "global marketplace" territories with "lowest bidder from anywhere hiring," where our homes used to be. 

Turkey is open now, so could be the next stop.  Hopefully many more options in August, or whenever the auto-extension period ends.   There is a pile of money that will be spent in whatever nations that open for us.

[Mike Teavee]

30 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

That would make no sense in this situation.  It's precisely "where you have been" that would dictate the probability of infection.  Even then, this method is just "odds." 

 

Only a test could answer the pertinent question with any degree of certainty, but seems they don't trust those - figuring someone coming in has "just got it" so will test-negative, then infect the whole country - assuming that didn't already happen in Feb, when they didn't call pneumonia covid.

 

I agree, but examples so far have been around the Passport not the person, e.g. there was a story of an Italian guy who had spent most of his life living in Switzerland but would have been caught up in the early embargoes on Italians not being able to travel to Thailand despite him not having visited Italy for decades. 

 

You could also have the situation where somebody flies from "a high risk country" into say Cambodia, enters & then gets another flight into Thailand... The only sensible way to do it would to be have a questionnaire along the lines of "Have you visited Countries A,B,C etc... within the past 1-2 months but even then you're relying on people accurately & honestly completing the forms & how many do you think would do so if it meant spending 2 weeks in quarantine at their own expense? 

 

It's not just Thailand, in the UK you will soon be able to visit Spain without having to go into quarantine on your return but not Portugal but there is nothing to stop you from flying into Spain, going to Portugal, having your holiday, returning to Spain & flying back home... How many people would declare (There would be no immigration evidence in any country) that they've visited Portugal when if they did they'd be required to spend 14 days in quarantine?

Edited July 2, 2020 by Mike Teavee

[JackThompson]

18 minutes ago, Mike Teavee said:

I agree, but examples so far have been around the Passport not the person, e.g. there was a story of an Italian guy who had spent most of his life living in Switzerland but would have been caught up in the early embargoes on Italians not being able to travel to Thailand despite him not having visited Italy for decades. 

 

You could also have the situation where somebody flies from "a high risk country" into say Cambodia, enters & then gets another flight into Thailand... The only sensible way to do it would to be have a questionnaire along the lines of "Have you visited Countries A,B,C etc... within the past 1-2 months but even then you're relying on people accurately & honestly completing the forms & how many do you think would do so if it meant spending 2 weeks in quarantine at their own expense? 

 

It's not just Thailand, in the UK you will soon be able to visit Spain without having to go into quarantine on your return but not Portugal but there is nothing to stop you from flying into Spain, going to Portugal, having your holiday, returning to Spain & flying back home... How many people would declare (There would be no immigration evidence in any country) that they've visited Portugal when if they did they'd be required to spend 14 days in quarantine?

Spain/Portugal land-borders are closed now, I think.  But I get your point.  Who knows what they will do. 

In general, I think you'd need to show your passport to demonstrate travel-history - as is done with yellow-fever immunizations if recent travel in Brazil (at least entering some countries).

[drbeach]

10 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

The Thai military seems more than capable of putting down a riot. I wouldn't go there.

 

Maybe...

 

identify the foreigners on tourist visas by country and work with their embassies to encourage departure.

 

create a "virtual" border zone within Immigration offices where people can exit and enter the country, virutally.

 

extend amnesty until 30 Aug 2020 (or 30 Sep 2020), but clearly say this is a hard stop, and if you con't leave you will be subject to arrest and deportation.

 

start rounding up all foreigners (not just the brown ones) NOW who are NOT on amnesty, by arresting them and deporting them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And then all sorts of complaints will start flooding in and investments and tourism recovery after corona will be in jeopardy. I don't think the government has nearly the amount of resources and certainly not the political will to do what you say. Love em or hate em, the current government isn't going to do stupid things that will cost it's reputation dearly.

 

It's quite clear that with an extension of the amnesty for a month or two, the conditions will be created to allow for a gradual departure as borders slowly re-open and more flights start coming in. Month by month, we're seeing an easing of restrictions to the point that it is quite conceivable that by September or so, things will be mostly back to normal, including borders with neighboring countries having re-opened.

[northsouthdevide]

I predict long ques of frustrated "alians", and some very busy, and happy agents. 

[Boomer6969]

Why would there be a riot? I would expect that most people in their right mind who have been given four months to make arrangements to leave the country would have done so by July 31st, no?

The consulates I know of have opened queues for repatriation flights some time ago, so if someone wouldn't have been able to leave by July 31st, I'd expect immigration to request some proof that they have at least take steps to do so.

[greggraham]

Am I right in thinking, as Monday & Tuesday are national holidays, that the weekly cabinet meetings won't be happen and we'll have to wait until at least mid-July now for any news? 

[ubonjoe]

1 hour ago, greggraham said:

Am I right in thinking, as Monday & Tuesday are national holidays, that the weekly cabinet meetings won't be happen and we'll have to wait until at least mid-July now for any news? 

I can recall they have already said the cabinet meeting will be on the 8th or 9th (not sure which of the 2 days it is).

[drbeach]

On 7/2/2020 at 10:32 AM, Brewster67 said:

To be more precise, what surrounding countries are going to require isolation before you can fully enter their country and do things?

 

Worst case scenario is they say you will not be allowed to use the exit point until you have quarantined and then when you eventually get back you have to do another 14 days.

 

I have a feeling when things reopen, they will do it to suit their rules regardless of the massive inconvenience to those affected.

My guess is for the first couple of weeks, maybe month after re-opening, some stringent requirements may be in place, which will be eased if you can wait a little longer before visiting. I think that's what the amnesty is designed to do. I can't see them throwing everyone to the curb just because Laos has "opened" but requires a 14 day quarantine first. Rather, you'll have to leave or regularize your status in-country only when the situation has returned to normal.

 

Of course, there is a chance this "normal" could be a little more onerous than in the past, but it won't involve quarantines, as that's only a temporary measure for sure. Now with several European countries no longer requiring them, you can rest assured the quarantine requirement won't last more than a month or two in this region (and that's starting from now) - I expect that it will be more a case of possible covid testing and waiting for results rather than quarantines when borders first re-open. Even that is inconvenient and may discourage or even prevent motorists from crossing the border since they would probably be taken to a government facility for one night first. Anyway, that's all speculative and it may not even come to that - it might be negative covid test result in hand (taken in the country of departure, ie Thailand within 72 hours of arrival at the border), quick temperature and symptom check, then tracking app and you're on your way.

 

Still, even that concerns me - although it might be quick, it's intrusive and would require a trip to a doctor 1-2 days before departure for every quick trip across the border. Totally unworkable other than in the very short term.

[JimGant]

On 7/2/2020 at 8:39 AM, Puchaiyank said:

Chaos...unavoidable! 

Yes, a no brainer. Just extend the amnesty until the borders are fully open, plus 30 (whatever) days. All these folks here on technically overstay aren't causing a problem. To all of a sudden get a herd of 60-day applicants descend on Immigration make no sense -- neither from (especially) a health aspect, but from an accounting and security aspect -- what's so critical about ending the amnesty.....?

[drbeach]

5 minutes ago, JimGant said:

Yes, a no brainer. Just extend the amnesty until the borders are fully open, plus 30 (whatever) days. All these folks here on technically overstay aren't causing a problem. To all of a sudden get a herd of 60-day applicants descend on Immigration make no sense -- neither from (especially) a health aspect, but from an accounting and security aspect -- what's so critical about ending the amnesty.....?

I agree. However, I think you shouldn't put the cart before the horse. There are several indications that this amnesty is likely to be extended for 1-2 more months. UJ thinks so. Several law firms think so too. Let's wait and see what happens.

[JackThompson]

7 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

Why would there be a riot? I would expect that most people in their right mind who have been given four months to make arrangements to leave the country would have done so by July 31st, no?

The consulates I know of have opened queues for repatriation flights some time ago, so if someone wouldn't have been able to leave by July 31st, I'd expect immigration to request some proof that they have at least take steps to do so.

The flaw in this thinking, is that "repatrition" is not what most of us still here will be doing.  We are looking for:

1. A way to stay in Thailand
2. What options are available to go to, if #1 is not possible

The constraints/delays on the decision are due to:

1. Thailand cannot / will-not set policy into the future - whether to allow us to stay longer, or when/if land-borders to any neighbors will be opened and/or under what conditions
2. Most other nations have not announced when/if they will allow us to travel to them, and/or under what conditions.

So, for now, we have only a few options (Turkey, etc), but do not wish to "make plans" (i.e. buy an air-ticket that may not be refunded if canceled) until we have more information.  It is difficult to predict what options will be available in a week or a month.

Edited July 3, 2020 by JackThompson

[BritTim]

3 hours ago, drbeach said:

Of course, there is a chance this "normal" could be a little more onerous than in the past, but it won't involve quarantines, as that's only a temporary measure for sure. Now with several European countries no longer requiring them, you can rest assured the quarantine requirement won't last more than a month or two in this region (and that's starting from now)

I disagree that quarantine will be discontinued to enter Covid-19 free countries. European countries have elected to accept continued presence of the virus. That being so, preventing, say, a dozen infected people per day entering through the borders does not help if you have 100+ cases daily of local transmission.

[CrunchWrapSupreme]

9 hours ago, Boomer6969 said:

most people in their right mind who have been given four months to make arrangements

Yup, four months. The same four months the US Embassy hasn't been running their notary service. I had an appointment which was canceled right when Corona got going. Now I haven't been able to get the stamps I need for my university degrees.

 

Yes, I've looked into everything. The Embassy really doesn't want to deal with degrees, however they will issue notarized affidavits for them, which I've confirmed the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs will accept. I just checked with them again today, see if there's any way to get around using the Embassy, like having a law office in BKK do the affidavits. They said nope, just continue to wait for the Embassy to open. They said they've been getting a ton of these calls, from a ton of people in my boat.

 

I've taught for many years out in the provinces, and never needed the stamps. Now I'm at a school in BKK who wants them. Should've ran and got them as soon as I got the offer, right before Corona, but who knew. This is holding up my Non-B, which immigration doesn't want to convert from the Corona extension anyway. Can't do the run to get a new tourist visa either.

 

Luckily the school's working with me. Luckily we got the Corona extension, which sounds like we might be getting again. Looks like God will find a way. So far he has.

[ubonjoe]

24 minutes ago, CrunchWrapSupreme said:

Yup, four months. The same four months the US Embassy hasn't been running their notary service. I had an appointment which was canceled right when Corona got going.

You should contact the embassy now.

Thay have this on the website now. 

"Routine notarial services are not yet authorized at U.S. Embassies and Consulates worldwide. We recognize U.S. citizens in Thailand may have an emergency (i.e., life/death/financial hardship) need for a notarial service and we review such notary service appointment requests on a case-by-case basis."

Source: https://th.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services-announcement/