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Thailand expects $39.5 billion in tourism revenue in 2020


rooster59

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22 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Amend that projection to 575,000 foreign tourists and an additional $3 billion baht in domestic tourism revenue. If that. Covid decimated the economy. Be honest for once in your careers, you ignoramus is fools!

Just so you can better appreciate the value of domestic tourism to the Thai economy, some interesting tourism trivia for your consumption and consideration:

 

Hotel occupancy rates in the three main tourist regions of Thailand last December (high season) were broadly similar at around 77%, that's South, Bangkok and North.

 

Average room rates for the three districts were Baht 2,600, 1,700 and 1,300 respectively.

 

The share of foreign tourists to total guests in each region was, 58%, 48% and 21% respectively.

 

In fact, domestic tourism is a massive money earner for the Thai economy, about 7% of GDP.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=875&language=ENG

 

 

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1 minute ago, MaxYakov said:

They must have meant 39.5 billion baht - a minor typo/accounting error. The "local holiday makers" - who dat?

Nope, they mean USD. Last year the full year value of (foreign and domestic) tourism to the Thai economy was around USD 95 billion.

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1 hour ago, Trillian said:
1 hour ago, MaxYakov said:

They must have meant 39.5 billion baht - a minor typo/accounting error. The "local holiday makers" - who dat?

Nope, they mean USD. Last year the full year value of (foreign and domestic) tourism to the Thai economy was around USD 95 billion.

WARNING: To be used for discussion purposes only, but to be taken a little more seriously than my previous/original comment, above (maybe).

 

Oh yeah? This site states 62 bn USD for 2019 ending Dec 1, but I didn't see (or they didn't state) how much from Thai nationals' tourism.

 

The site looks authoritative (to me, partially because it's not a Thai site - I think) and is very detailed. Just for argument's sake, let's say it doesn't include Thai national tourists. Let's throw in another 6 bn USD for Dec 2019 (ignoring Dec 2018 and probably inflating the revenue amount for 2019????

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue

 

Do you think the Thais spent 27 bn USD on tourism within Thailand last year (see estimate, below).

 

(95* bn USD - (62 bn USD + 6 bn USD)) = 27 bn USD estimate for Thai tourism (one would think spending within Thailand, but I wonder about that).

 

* = Your stated total revenue amount

 

Do you think the ordinary Thais can come up with 27 bn USD for tourism within Thailand or would they go out of country instead? Is it possible that including Thai tourism in total tourist revenue is a little bit like cooking the books because it's not bringing in foreign funds? Your thoughts (or anyone)

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1 hour ago, MaxYakov said:

WARNING: To be used for discussion purposes only, but to be taken a little more seriously than my previous/original comment, above (maybe).

 

Oh yeah? This site states 62 bn USD for 2019 ending Dec 1, but I didn't see (or they didn't state) how much from Thai nationals' tourism.

 

The site looks authoritative (to me, partially because it's not a Thai site - I think) and is very detailed. Just for argument's sake, let's say it doesn't include Thai national tourists. Let's throw in another 6 bn USD for Dec 2019 (ignoring Dec 2018 and probably inflating the revenue amount for 2019????

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue

 

Do you think the Thais spent 27 bn USD on tourism within Thailand last year (see estimate, below).

 

(95* bn USD - (62 bn USD + 6 bn USD)) = 27 bn USD estimate for Thai tourism (one would think spending within Thailand, but I wonder about that).

 

* = Your stated total revenue amount

 

Do you think the ordinary Thais can come up with 27 bn USD for tourism within Thailand or would they go out of country instead? Is it possible that including Thai tourism in total tourist revenue is a little bit like cooking the books because it's not bringing in foreign funds? Your thoughts (or anyone)

Slightly more precisely:

 

GDP in 2019 = USD 520 bill.

 

In approx numbers at 30 baht per USD.

 

Foreign tourism = 11.5% of GDP or USD 60 bill.

Domestic tourism = 7% of GDP or USD 37 bill.

Total inbound tourism = 18.5% of GDP or USD 96 bill.

Outbound foreign tourism - THB 440 bill or USD 15 bill.

 

Note: numbers will vary slightly based on rounding and the ex.rate.

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1 hour ago, MaxYakov said:

WARNING: To be used for discussion purposes only, but to be taken a little more seriously than my previous/original comment, above (maybe).

 

Oh yeah? This site states 62 bn USD for 2019 ending Dec 1, but I didn't see (or they didn't state) how much from Thai nationals' tourism.

 

The site looks authoritative (to me, partially because it's not a Thai site - I think) and is very detailed. Just for argument's sake, let's say it doesn't include Thai national tourists. Let's throw in another 6 bn USD for Dec 2019 (ignoring Dec 2018 and probably inflating the revenue amount for 2019????

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/tourism-revenue

 

Do you think the Thais spent 27 bn USD on tourism within Thailand last year (see estimate, below).

 

(95* bn USD - (62 bn USD + 6 bn USD)) = 27 bn USD estimate for Thai tourism (one would think spending within Thailand, but I wonder about that).

 

* = Your stated total revenue amount

 

Do you think the ordinary Thais can come up with 27 bn USD for tourism within Thailand or would they go out of country instead? Is it possible that including Thai tourism in total tourist revenue is a little bit like cooking the books because it's not bringing in foreign funds? Your thoughts (or anyone)

Sorry, I got called away before I could finish!

 

It really doesn't matter whether you use ceicdata, trade economics or anyone else, they all get their numbers from the same source, typically from TAT who in turn gets them from Ministry of Finance and BOT. It's not as though individual companies outside of Thailand can make these calculations independently, they have to use Thai numbers.

 

The media likes to quote a round 20% as being the value of tourism, which when the exchange rate is 32 to USD and a full year is projected, is about broadly correct. The problem is few people bother to separate the value of domestic and international tourism but since international tourism is an export and domestic tourism isn't, making that distinction is important. 

 

And the 20% figure arises again because international tourism is 20% of all exports, exports representing 60% of GDP. If you recalculate that you come back to international tourism being slightly over 11.5% of total GDP.

 

Do I think Thai tourism can come up with a USD 27 billion spend for internal tourism? The answer is yes, without any doubt whatsoever. If you look at the BOT breakdown for hotel occupancy in December 2019 you'll see that less than 50% of all rooms were occupied by foreigners and the average occupancy rate was 77%. That results in two thirds of revenue being generated by foreigners and one third by Thai's, 11.5% vs 7%, again. 

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=875&language=ENG

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